And here it is, another Vegas Odds show. Every year, right around this time I get to sit down and write something about pretty much anything I want, while arguably attempting to gauge the likelihood of where we are going to finish in the league.
I think that, with some exceptions, my track record in this basically says that my attempting to handicap the league is a fool’s errand. If you don’t believe me, consider this: The last two years, the team I picked to finish in second, finished out of the money (a fact that I am all too painfully aware of). Every year, I pick Dave and Brandon to do damage, and every year they finish on the outside looking in, nose pressed against the glass (kind of like the GOP in this state, but I digress.) And of course every year I pick someone to finish in the basement, who winds up making a run.
So why bother doing it? Because I’m the Commissioner and it’s my website and I…hmmm…ummm…well…ok, anyway, on with the show. And we start this year in a familiar place:
YEAH. RIGHT.
11. Peteriot Nation
Odds to win: About the same as TONY giving birth to quintuplets. (At least this year).
Odds to finish in the money: Roughly the same as the NFL placing an expansion franchise in Greenland.
Female celebrity the 2006 team most evokes: Kathy Griffin. Interesting for about 5 seconds, and then you get seriously annoyed, and then you finally realize that there is nothing there and you move on. (That is, if you don’t start throwing stuff across the room first.)
The “D” list, indeed. Ever since Pete won the Ameche League in 2004, he has had shit luck across the board. It is almost as if the gods are smiting him, as payback for winning it all in 2004.
In 2005, both his American and National League teams finished far out of the money. He had shit luck with his Ameche League team all year, missing key starts throughout the year and winding up finishing just out of the money. In 2006, he traded Matt Holliday (10, one year left) AND Prince Fielder (10, signable) for Albert Pujols, Ryan Freel and a sixth place finish. (To add insult to injury, for a few weeks afterward, Greg Fida’s team was ahead of Pete’s, in spite of Greg being the one that dumped!) Perhaps most ignominious of all, his AL team squandered a 3.5 point lead with a week to go in the American League and wound up finishing out of the money by, literally, ONE STOLEN BASE.
Oh, and Josh Barfield (10, 2 years left) got traded this week to Cleveland. As TONY said: When does THAT happen?
In fact, the one league that he DID finish in the money in (the CT’s Best League), he finished in the money ONLY because Wayne played Kerry Collins (who wound up not playing that week.) Pete won a close game, just because of that one brain fart. However, shit luck crept through in the next round, the league semi-finals. Down 151-150 on the Monday Night game to the Congressionals (cool guy), Pete ONLY needed one catch – ONE CATCH – from Derrick Mason, who was playing on a night where Kyle Boller was having a career night. It was the “We need one pin Rodney….ONE PIN!!!!!” moment of the year….and with the same ultimate result.
As George W. Bush said earlier this week, “Oy, this is a complete clusterfuck.”
In the middle of all of this came the “I’m Keith Hernandez” moment of the year, and perhaps of all time (aside from TONY’s monomaniacial dumping in the National League, more on that in a bit.) Pete had a pretty balanced team to start the year, but lacked a running back. Enamored of Willie Parker, Tom’s $6 minimum wage find, Pete decided to dump basically his whole team for Parker. Quoted before the draft, Pete said, “I don’t need a quality quarterback, you win in this league with running backs.” “Young quarterbacks always struggle the first year after they change teams for the first time.” “I can find decent wide receivers off of the scrap heap.” “Gail O’Grady is way hotter than Eva Longoria OR Jessica Simpson” (Yes, Pete really did say this.) Thus emboldened, Pete decided to spend $97 on Shaun Alexander, in spite of the fact that Alexander was the Madden 07 Coverboy, and in spite of the fact that his security blanket, Steve Hutchinson, hightailed it to Cousin Brucie’s boys. Said Pete during the draft: “If Tom had said 98, the next thing that was coming out of my mouth was 100.” You cannot make this stuff up, folks.
(Sidebar: “I’m Keith Hernandez” comes from the “Magic Loogie” episode of Seinfeld where Keith was in the car with Julia Louis-Dreyfuss and saying to himself, “I’m Keith Hernandez”. Basically it means that you think you’re bulletproof. At around the same time, Tom Everett Scott in the movie “That Thing You Do” did basically the same thing, with his catch phrase “I am Spartacus.” Yes, I stole the Hernandez bit from Sports Guy, but I came up with the Everett Scott thing on my own.)
With Willie Parker on board AND Shaun Alexander, was Pete done? No! He drafted Jamal Lewis. And Deuce McAllister. And Joseph Addai. (Uh, Pete, you DO know you can only start four running backs a week, right?) In all, Pete left the draft with nearly $180 worth of running backs. Basically it was the equivalent of a girl wearing Manolo Blahniks with a pair of Toughskins and a T-shirt from Walmart. Sure, she probably is going to look alright anyway. But there’s no balance, no equitable distribution. Like everything else, everything in moderation.
In retrospect, perhaps the only major error Pete made was not drafting his boy Tomlinson instead of Alexander. Had he done that, his team would probably still not be a title contender, but would certainly be competitive and have a good shot at the money. He would be trading Phillip Rivers for help at two or three positions, instead of the other way around. If nothing else at least Pete realized that this wasn’t to be his year and started blowing up his team, so there will be no devastating reprise of 2006 in the American League. Whether he goes in as the Team To Beat in 2007 remains to be seen, but he’ll be in the discussion. Just stay away from the Madden 08 cover boy, OK? Whomever it is.
NOT AS BAD AS PGAR, FOR WHAT THAT’S WORTH
10. Tom’s Turkeys
Odds to win: 99,999-1
Odds to finish in the money: Actually, not that bad. 99-1.
Female celebrity the 2006 team most evokes: Lindsay Lohan. Again, at first you look an you say, “OK, yeah, not bad,” then you look closer and you start seeing the flakiness, the overbearing mom, etc. and you’re just like, No, OK, I’m good.
On paper, Tom’s team actually looks quite good. He has two of the best quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Drew Brees (a trade that is looking more and more like a heist every week.) He has new dad and pal of Nick Lachey Matt Leinart as a third guy. He has Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James at running back (always reliable) and decent name-brand receivers, including Joey Galloway (another throw-in in the Pete heist.) So why is Tom floundering?
Well, after his quarterbacks, his team is just not all that. If not for Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James would be the biggest bust in the league. Clearly, he is not happy in Arizona, he is running behind a poor line and playing for a losing team (although the Denny Green meltdown was every bit as enjoyable as the John L. Smith meltdown during Michigan State/Ohio State in 2005). Portis has been OK but Washington has clearly self-destructed (the win against the Cowboys was a gift, the Cowboys are probably more dysfunctional than the Redskins right now.) There are no receivers after Joey Galloway, but Seattle’s defense has been pretty good (thanks AGAIN Pete!)
Here’s a bigger question: If not for Pete’s generosity, where would Tom be right now? Best guess: he would be struggling to reach 1000 points on the year. For Willie Parker (88 points halfway through the year) he so far has gotten over 300 in return. Granted, he’d have some guys getting him points alongside Parker, but probably not for the money. Let this be a cautionary tale for you all. (Especially if you have the new guy Steve Hutchinson is blocking for now.)
As far as Tom’s boys the Redskins, what a mess there. Last year, they had good balance and probably should have beaten Seattle in Seattle. Rather than keep what was working together, the Redskins braintrust basically decided to blow everything up (this includes Joe Gibbs, by the way.) Bringing on Al Saunders also appears to be a mistake, as was bringing on Antwaan Randle El. Also it doesn’t help that Mark Brunell is basically on fumes at this point. Yes, they beat Dallas on Sunday, but it was almost like Rutgers beating Louisville on Thursday night, which was also a gift (and I knew when Schiano started playing for the field goal that Ito was missing that kick). Plus, Parcells is, as Sports Guy once said, like Vito Corleone towards the end, with an orange in his mouth. (He said it, I didn’t. But then again: how many Super Bowls has Parcells won without Bill Belichick?) You also have to wonder if Parcells is still coaching now because he got soaked in his divorce and needs the cash. Sure does seem like it – he just seems especially joyless this year.
9. Bushwackers
Odds to win: 33,333-1
Odds to finish in the money: 88-1
Female celebrity the 2006 team most resembles: Katherine McPhee. See above blurb for Lohan, although McPhee does seem to be somewhat less higher maintenance than Lohan (and does have some real talent.)
No win for Greg this year (who still has not reached the mountaintop after a magical rookie year of 1998 in this league). Only Michael Vick is in triple digits through Week 9, and even then Vick is basically a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside a enigma, deep fried and covered with hot fudge, caramel and whipped cream (which, actually, would be quite nice if it applied to McPhee, natch.)
Ronnie Brown was going to be the big RB find but, like so many of the RB Class of 2005, has not been a sensation. However, this is probably more because the Dolphins are just a freaking mess. In the pre-season preview, I already addressed the Reggie Bush issue, but I have to say that I am very surprised at how little he has done so far - remember, 10 of his 28 points this year came on a punt return for a TD. Shit, Michael Turner has nearly outscored Bush surviving on nothing more than LT’s sloppy seconds! In fact, Bush’s biggest value to the Saints has been as an icon and as a decoy. Which, actually, is more than Pete Carroll used him as.
A telling sign as to why Greg is in the doldrums is his receivers. Granted, Steve Smith is a premium receiver, and he would start for any of our teams. He has brought in 65 points this year, which puts him in the league’s elite. However, he went for $36. While there should be more separation as the season goes on, that’s a premium to pay for that few points. However, you can make up for it by having cheap production elsewhere. Although Amani Toomer has scored 40 points for $3, after that the next best guys are Larry Fitzgerald (who has been hurt, admittedly) and Bryant Johnson, who both have brought in roughly the same points per dollar that Smith has. Granted, not everyone can have a $1 Javon Walker or a $7 Roy Williams, but the point is you need to get the production, and right now Greg is not.
Perhaps the toughest spot for Greg is his quarterbacks. Obviously Vick is a no-brainer and Green should have been, but isn’t. So who do you start? Steve McNair or Joey “Don’t Call Me Albert” Harrington? The “safe” choice is McNair, but Harrington has had more points per game than McNair and likely will start for Miami the rest of the way (even though he still seems to be the deer in the headlights he was in Detroit.) In other words: a far cry from the glory days of 1998, when Greg could ride Randall Cunningham and Tony Banks – TONY BANKS!!! – to a title. Going away! Let me say again: Greg went Joe McCabe on our asses with Tony Freaking Banks at QB.
There is still time for Greg to climb back in the race, and given how close things are it’s a possibility. But, too many things have to go right and there are too many guys he has to climb over. No mean feat, especially since one of the guys he would have to climb over is TONY! (And Dave Gade’ll be no picnic either.)
LOW-LEVEL CONTENDERS
8. D&B Roadrunners
Odds to win: 700-1
Odds to finish in the money: 75-1
Female celeb the 2006 team most evokes: Kellie Pickler. She’s fun, she’s attractive, she seems very nice. But you know there probably isn’t much going on upstairs, and believe me it can get pretty tired really fast – a hell of a lot faster than you think!
Before I go off on a riff about how every year I pick Dave and Brandon to do well and every year it doesn’t pan out, allow me to elaborate on the previous blurb and what I mean with that. As most of you know, back in 1987, when I was a senior in college, I worked at Stop & Shop in Orange. One of my favorite pastimes when I was there was to ask girls out who came through my line. Suprisingly, I did fairly well and I had some considerable success. Anyway, one of the girls was this girl, Terri, who was from Georgia. She was tiny (maybe 5 feet, a little more than), blonde, very sweet, very attractive. She had a cute Southern accent, and we hit it off pretty good. Anyway, I asked her out for a date, and she accepted.
Only problem was that there was just nothing going on upstairs. Now, in the beginning, I’m like everyone else: Yeah, I’m going on a date, I’m going on a date with a hot girl who is into me. But eventually you gotta talk about something, and there just was nothing there. I’ll put it another way – she was from Athens, and she had NO CLUE who REM was. NONE. And they had just released an album! As TONY says when he gets exasperated “I don’t have a hell of a lot to work with here.” Granted, there has to be physical attraction, but you have to be able to talk and you have to be able to relate. Just saying. (And it’s not like I would want to talk about sports either. Quite the opposite, in fact. Granted, you don’t have to talk about the conflict in the Mideast or the falling Euro or anything like that, just talk about whatever.)
As far as Dave’s team, I think he may have had a Keith Hernandez moment of his own with the trade of Larry Johnson for Antonio Gates and Warrick “Duck” Dunn. Granted, Grandmama was somewhat banged up and was underachieving. Dave had a gaping hole at TE and did have a logjam at RB (especially after the charitable donation trade of Joseph Addai for David Carr for….well, let’s just say scroll back up. Keep going…) Gates has been the best TE in the league since he came in, but like Tony Gonzalez last year, he just isn’t doing much at all. So Dave gets Gates, and Warrick Dunn (good keeper for next year) for Larry Johnson. Not horrible….but then again this was before Larry Johnson went Al Bundy in Week 8. And also don’t forget, Warrick Dunn is like Brian Westbrook – great talent, very productive, but fragile as a china bowl.
That said, probably the biggest mistake Dave and Brandon made this year was keeping Drew Bledsoe. The way that QBs went this year, Bledsoe would have probably gone for less than $41. Now, in his last, best chance to flourish as an NFL quarterback, Bledsoe is on the bench, behind Tony Romo, and probably not much more valuable than Jeff George at this point. In a lot of ways, it is kind of sad to see it end this way for Bledsoe and Parcells – two guys who, as I have said repeatedly, are as responsible for me becoming a Patriot fan as much as anyone (with the possible exception of Bob Kraft and my brother). Yes, I did say two years ago that Bledsoe was pathetic, stumbling around like Willie Mays with the Mets, but at only 34 I would expect him to have a lot more left in the tank. (Remember, Steve DeBerg had his best NFL season at 38, Rich Gannon was MVP at 37 and Vinny Testaverde had some of his best years after he was eligible to run for President.)
Still you have to admire Dave and Brandon’s pluck. Most of their moves do work out and do make sense, they just have had shit luck. Even if they still had Larry Johnson it’s hard to say they would be much higher than where they are, and then after next year Johnson’d be gone anyway. Whatever. Stick with it, guys; it’s just a matter of time.
7. Benham Brawlers
Odds to win: 99-1
Odds to finish in the money: 12-1
Female celeb the 2006 team most evokes: Bruce version: Elisabeth Hasselbeck. There’s a lot to draw you to her initially – she’s bright and very attractive, obviously – but, you can tell that she can probably get on your nerves pretty quickly. And that’s before you get into the other yentas on the show with her (although I think they all get along so well.)
Walt version: Kelly Ripa. Pretty much the same as Elisabeth, wouldn’t you say? Except Regis is pretty cool (when not in Yankee-rooting mode, that is.)
Completely unrelated sidebar for a moment: I think it is safe to say that that fat, Vicodin-taking tub of shit RUSH probably cost the GOP the Senate in Missouri (and, necessarily, a Senate majority). By now you have surely heard about Rush’s comments about how Michael J. Fox was basically playing up his symptoms of Parkinson’s in a commercial for Claire “No Relation to Kirk (That I know of)” McCaskill, the Dem candidate for Senate in Missouri. Well, Rush said that and it was on. McCaskill (who pitched for the 1993 AL West champion Chicago White Sox) was on all the major networks and newspapers. All the networks showed how Fox was with his picture-perfect family and how he was blessed and everything else and he was just a swell guy and everything else, and basically how RUSH was a piece of amphibian shit (which we already knew, thank you very much.)
Meanwhile, Jim Talent (the incumbent) was basically left to twist in the wind. By the media, by his own party, by everyone, pretty much. Nowhere did I see him step up and publicly rebuke Rush. Nowhere did I see his campaign push to get on TV to push his point of view across. As Gregg Easterbrook is wont to say in his excellent “Tuesday Morning Quarterback” column, Talent just basically stood around like topiary, with all of this going on around him. Basically it was a runaway freight train, with the (one-sided) debate on stem-cell research leading the way. (I have to say, while I don’t get exactly why anyone would be opposed to stem cell research, the media did seem to jam down our throats only present one side of the debate for our consideration. Which, come to think of it is what the media does best.
Then again, what the hell all of this has to do with Kirk McCaskill and why I traded Steve Farr for him to Bob SR back in 1991 escapes me. Anyway, back to the column.)
The answer to the question “How would Pete’s team be if he had drafted Ladainian Tomlinson instead of Madden cover boy, and not made the 40th birthday trade with Tom” is the Benham Brawlers. In the role of Drew Brees (well, sort of) is Chad Pennington and Alex Smith. Playing Joey Galloway, is Javon Walker (which makes up for the shortfall between Pennington/Smith and Brees, sort of.) And of course, LT, who is having another monstrous year. (Had Tomlinson had this kind of year last year, we wouldn’t be talking about a certain owner’s shit luck.)
The downfall of Bruce and Walt’s team, is a lack of depth. Tatum Bell is the titular starter in Denver (hint: Tom, click on that link) but is not doing much at all. Reuben Droughns is also a starter in Cleveland and has not done much there (Tom, you might not be as interested in that link. But, TONY, you might!) Javon Walker will get some Value team Captain consideration this year and Plaxico 757 has done well for Walt and Bruce but after that their team is ordinary. Drafting Daunte Culpepper for 54 – who clearly was never right, and probably should have sat the season out – also didn’t help. In some ways, Daunte’s struggles were to be expected – this was his first team change of his career, and most young QBs struggle the first time they change franchises. But apparently he wasn’t all the way back from his ACL tear, and that has hurt him as well. Whether or not Daunte can ever get his groove back is, suddenly, up for discussion. Right now, it sure doesn’t look like it. (So much for getting Daunte for old times sake, right Bruce? I took Vinatieri for old time’s sake, it’s true, but he only went for $3.)
The one wild card is if Shaun Alexander can come back. They didn’t give up much to get him and Mark Brunell (Alex Smith, basically 40 cents on the dollar) so it was a good risk for them, and a risk worth taking even if Alexander doesn’t play again this season (which is looking like a possibility). In their position, at that time, they really didn’t have many other better options.
That said there is definitely some upside here. Bruce and Walt have great blue-chip frontline players and even Mark Brunell, the throw-in, may have a second-half renaissance. So much depends on Shaun Alexander, and with every week he sits out it becomes more likely he won’t make an impact this year. You never know, but there are other things that may be surer bets than Alexander making an impact this year. Like the sun rising in the west, for instance. Or water being dry. Or Neil Patrick Harris….uh, never mind.
THE AXIS OF EVIL
6. Nippers
Odds to win: 50-1
Odds to finish in the money: 3-1
Female celebrity 2006 team most evokes: Kim Cattrall. Girlfriend has got it in a big way, but you know that she’s just brutal to co-exist with. (And, yes, if I was doing this 40 years ago, you can substitute “Tina Louise” for “Kim Cattrall”.)
You’ll find out the reason for that analogy shortly.
It says a lot that Bob’s highest scoring quarterback so far, is Jon Kitna. Here is a guy who, as his former coach Mike Holmgren said, is “a math teacher, living the dream.” An undrafted free agent out of Eastern Washington, Kitna has survived in the NFL all these years as a viable quarterback, as a guy that can step into a situation and make it work.
In a lot of ways, he’s the latter day Steve DeBerg. DeBerg, you’ll remember, was an unheralded journeyman who nonetheless helped break in Joe Montana, John Elway, and Vinny Testaverde. Finally, at the end of his career, DeBerg went to Kansas City and had a magical 1990 season where he made the Pro Bowl, almost as a cosmic reward for his selflessness. While Kitna may not have trained quarterbacks of the caliber that DeBerg did, he has been a selfless teammate and a good guy to learn from. Carson Palmer really appreciated him in Cincinnati and, for his part, Kitna always knew that Palmer was the future in Cincinnati, and not him, and carried himself that way.
In a lot of ways, the situation that Kitna is in right now is not too different than the situation that he went into in Cincinnati: a perennially moribund team in the Midwest, a team with some weapons, playing in a brand-new stadium with a new coach intent on “taking out the trash”, where Kitna is basically the starter by default. Despite that, he does seem to be holding up OK and has not complained a bit. As much as anything, it’s this attitude that makes Kitna a more attractive option for teams than other players who may be more talented. Who would you rather have as your starting QB right now: Jon Kitna, or former #1 overall pick Drew Bledsoe, or former #1 overall pick Tim Couch? Yeah, me too. Kitna can start for you and be OK, and he can come off the bench if you need him and be OK too. (And, by the way, Cincinnati didn’t lose last year to Pittsburgh because of Kitna.)
As far as Carson Palmer, he seems to be doing a lot better than Daunte, even though Palmer tore his knee up 2 months after Daunte. The issues in Cincy, I think, are bigger than that. To me, Cincinnati is in real danger of imploding and going back to the stone age. I don’t know about anyone else but I can’t get out of my head the rumors that Chad Johnson blew up at a coach at halftime last year. Heat of the battle, sure; but to me it seemed rooted in disrespect more than anything else, and the denials on both sides seemed rather hollow to me. Then there is the constant behavioral problems – Chris Henry, etc. There’s a reason Jim Rome and Bill Simmons have a running gag about the “Cincinnati Trail Gangstas” and the “CincinAttica Bengals”, you know. Granted, Marvin Lewis is a great coach, and he deserves plaudits for turning that franchise around, but it seems like he has done it at a price. Basically, this team has turned into the NFL Trail Blazers – another team that had a good run with talented malcontents, who eventually collapsed under their own weight, becoming a punchline on the Jim Rome show, before they finally had to say “screw it,” nuke the team and start over. Don’t think the same thing can’t happen here.
Speaking of WRs who are headaches, Bob SR has cornered the market. He has our favorite, Terrell Owens. This year it was (supposedly) a suicide attempt (I don’t think it was, personally but I think there is more to the story than everyone is letting on.) He has Randy Moss, who is in Dunce territory at this point. Moss is not as much of a distraction and a nuisance as Owens, but you know he is not happy to be in Oakland anymore. And, SR also has Jerry Porter, who was suspended because he was a malcontent. Bob’s team proves the theory that wide receivers are the divas of pro sports – preening, self-absorbed, divisive and disruptive, but so uniquely talented you have to force yourself to accommodate them or suffer the consquences. They are Diana Ross, they are Barbra Streisand, they are Mariah Carey. (Not Beyoce – yet – who does still seem to be a sweet girl. So far.) Granted, you can blow them off and do very well, but then you would end up with the Patriots receivers – selfless, hard workers, but unreliable and either raw or washed up. Take your pick.
Bob is the first team we’ve gone over who has good balance throughout his lineup. There are no huge studs, although Steven Jackson, Terrell Owens and Hines Ward have done well so far. Dominic Rhodes was a disappointment, and Kurt Warner is at the end of the line, but you would expect more from Randy Moss in the second half and Carson Palmer you know has some strong games in him (how could he not?) Perhaps there is not enough to win here, but Bob will do well. It does hurt that he doesn’t have a super-strong keeper guy that he could subsequently move in a trade for two or three bodies.
5. 99 Yarders
Odds to win: 30-1
Odds to finish in the money: 3-1
Female celebrity 2006 team most evokes: Eva Longoria. She’s clearly one of the five biggest head-turners on TV. Not nearly as bad as Cattrall to deal with, but from what I understand the set of “Desperate Housewives” is hardly the Good Ship Lollypop. (And, yes, if I was doing this 40 years ago, you could substitute “Dawn Wells” for “Eva Longoria”.)
Two words why I have Bob as the first money team this year: Peyton Manning. This almost makes up for “Dunce” Aaron Brooks and his –4. What a waste. Manning is probably the best single player in the league, by far, and you sense that the best this year is yet to come. The Patriot game was a thing of brilliance. The Pats kept coming at him all night, and had him dead to rights more than a few times. But, Manning got himself out of trouble, and was able to constantly hit his receivers on the run and turn losses into big gains. No, he hasn’t won a damn thing yet. But no one in the NFL works harder and pushes himself more. I always remember when he came into the league in 1998, by the time training camp started he memorized 75% of the playbook. And he goes on. Like Tiger Woods, he has the talent and he puts the work in.
The other strength of JR’s team is the running backs. Kevin Jones is finally having the career breakout year we have been waiting for, in Mike Martz’s offense. Tiki Barber is solid as always in his final season. And Maurice Jones-Drew was a nice late-draft pickup for cheap. And of course, Marion Barber as a fourth RB. His receivers are bargain basement, but he is getting decent production out of them (especially Laverneous Coles). And, unlike his dad, Bob JR does have some chits that he can use in a trade – Jones-Drew, Coles, and Vince Young all have trade value).
Where Bob is going to have problems: the second QB (Vince Young is much too shaky to rely on each week, and that is his best option at this moment), and the production out of his defenses and kickers so far has not been great. But he has more players to trade and he has Peyton Manning which gives him the edge here. Maybe not for a title, but it should be enough to get him in the money.
THE BIG BOYS' TABLE 2006
4. Coin Tossers
Odds to win: 3-1
Odds to finish in the money: 2-5
Female celebrity 2006 team most evokes: Cindy Margolis. See the layout in Playboy, and listen to her on the Stern replays this weekend. Enough said.
I don’t know about anyone else but I dig older women. Always have. Cindy Margolis is about as close to “jackpot” as you can get. I mean, back in the day she was always nice, and she always seemed grounded. But this spread, it is just unreal. It’s not enough to say that she had a baby, I mean, she blows away girls half her age, and it’s not even close. My sister did make the point that, during the Stern show she showed a jealous streak, and that’s true, but there are far worse traits. Not only is she beautiful, but she seems nice, and she seems to enjoy being with her family and doing things with them. Just thought I would point that out.
Anyway: Craig is back! Like the Patriots, Craig is back in the upper echelon of the league and his team is as strong as ever. Lots to like here. First, Craig may have gotten the best rookie back of the draft in Laurence Maroney. He scored big time with Curtis Martin in 1995; 11 years later, it looks like he did it again with Maroney. His quarterbacks are all pretty lackluster, and Ben Roethlisberger was a bitter disappointment (though, like Carson and Daunte, Ben just was not right this year). But there is good balance there. Fred Taylor and Julius Jones both are doing well in platoon situations. His receivers are maybe the league’s best corps – Reggie Wayne is the best #2 in the league, Torry Holt is excellent and Darrell Jackson is all the way back (again, where was THAT last year?) It is almost the mirror opposite of Bob SR’s receivers – all hard-working guys who just go out there and PLAY and produce. Kind of like Cindy Margolis is the polar opposite of Kim Cattrall. (Personality wise, anyway)
The wild card that Craig has is David Garrard. If you read the tea leaves in Jacksonville, Garrard is on the verge of becoming the starter full-time. It does seem that he is a better fit for that offense and while Leftwich has heart and fire, his skill set doesn’t seem to be working out. (Best bet for his next stop: Baltimore. Second-best bet: Minnesota.) Although Craig has some good guys to trade, he doesn’t have that one home-run guy that can bring a windfall, whereas the guys in front of him do, or have already cashed it in. That could be a problem as the year goes on, especially if his QBs don’t step up. (Although why Mike Shanahan is disenchanted with Jake Plummer, after securing a 1 seed last year and off to a 6-2 start this year, is beyond me.)
3. Anthonyapolis Colts
Odds to win: 6-1
Odds to finish in the money: Even
Female celebrity 2006 team most evokes: TONY version: Jessica Simpson. Aside from the fact that TONY has two pictures of her, framed no less, at his house, her career is on a roll and she’s firing on all cylinders. Plus for the beating she takes in the press she does seem like she is pretty easy to get along with, if a little flighty and airheaded.
Phil Ryan version: Erin Andrews. I have liked her since she did the studio segments for Braves games on TBS. An underrated sideline reporter, for some her voice is like fingernails on a chalkboard but she seems pretty much on the stick and she’s quite smart. Phil: make sure you tell her I said that!
This time around, we are going to give some love to Phil Ryan, the brains of the operation. Every year, I rank on TONY and all but ignore poor Phil. Not this year. (And yes Phil I know you are still bouncing off the walls because of the election results in your district. Congratulations, and good riddance to bad rubbish. I guess.)
For those of you who don’t know, Phil works at the ESPN, the Worldwide Leader. That’s right, he is compatriots with Stu Scott and Chris Berman and especially Chris Fowler and the College Gameday crew, who are probably the best pregame in football, college or pro. Phil is the guy who conducts the draft, fills out the lineup and approves all trades. Basically, TONY just rides in the sidecar.
What is amazing to me, even now, is that Phil and TONY did not start out as boys. Quite the opposite, in fact. Phil was a Postmaster when TONY came on board in 1994. One of TONY’s first assignments was working with Phil. At the time, Phil didn’t know TONY like we know him. He saw that TONY was loud, and boisterous and headstrong and fantasy sports obsessed, but didn’t see that TONY was loyal, hard-working, sensible , excellent with money and honest to a fault. Anyway, Phil didn’t get along and actually suggested that TONY not continue on at the post office!
Somehow, though, TONY got past that with Phil. And, like Richie and the Fonz on Happy Days (who also started out as rivals who had no use to each other), they worked through their differences quickly and became boys, to the point that TONY was Phil’s best man when he married the beautiful Roxanne. The icing? Well, the 2003 Ameche League title, and the fact that Phil was thisclose to a title in both the Head to Head league this year and in baseball in 2003. And they are now partners in the Wally World (basketball) League, as well.
How lovely and heart-warming. Maybe Oprah can do a feature piece during February sweeps, that is if Kirstie Alley doesn’t try on any bikinis (and if any of you missed that….be thankful.)
As far as TONY is concerned, this year he absolutely put on a clinic as far as dumping in the National League. Taking the old adage “if you can’t win, dump” to heart, TONY basically dumped his team by May 1st. Then, he dumped again. And again. (You DO realize you can only bring back fifteen players and three minor leaguers TONY, right?) I mean, if you go to TONY’s team now I think he has every good young cheap kid under $10. Literally, all he needs to do in the draft next year is say “45” when Jason Bay comes up, “40” when Roy Oswalt’s name is called and then go to sleep until July to make a dump trade with PGar for Brandon Webb and Andruw Jones some crappy also-ran team looking to build for 2008. Who the hell knows, he might get Albert Pujols back before the start of the season. Yeah, like he hasn’t started asking me already.
The team? They have Chester Taylor and are $133 under the cap, with dead weight to shed if they had to. Translation: If they were so inclined they could get any three guys in the league they wanted for Taylor and win. If they move Taylor for the right three guys, they win. Even if they don’t, and things break their way, they’ll be right there in the end. What else do you need to know?
2. D.A. Dolphins
Odds to win: Even
Odds to finish in the money: 1-10
Female celebrity 2006 team most evokes: Derek version: Angelina Jolie. No further explanation necessary.
Rob G. version: Kathryn Morris (from Cold Case). She’s cool, l like her, what can I say?
Apologies in advance, Derek and Rob, for picking you second. As I noted, the last two years the team I picked to finish second finished out of the money completely. Though I don’t see that happening here.
There are two teams this year that have a chance to win it all. This is one of them. Through a combination of shrewd drafting, canny trades and just dumb luck, Derek has given himself a real chance to win. Bulger, as it turns out, was a steal at $50. As long as he stays healthy, he will put up numbers in that offense. (It should also be noted that the Rams are a better team than their record – they have had bad luck, especially against the Seahawks, but they are playing well and are back. In this rookie crop of coaches, after Sean Payton I think you need to put Linehan and Eric Mangini back-to-back as the next best.)
The trade for Larry Johnson looks like it could be a heist – indeed, Johnson seems to have come around literally as soon as Derek traded for him, going Al Bundy in Week 8 (i.e., 4 touchdowns in one game) TJ Houshmandzadeh is the best #2 receiver in the NFL not named Reggie Wayne. And the FA pickup of Marques Colston was as pivotal a FA pickup as any in the league so far this year. Maybe not the best FA pickup ever, but in the discussion. (I am, however, sick of these football talking heads who think they are making this great and profound observation that no one else has made when they saying that “Yeah, we all knew the Rookie of the Year was coming from New Orleans – but who would have known it would have been Marques Colston, a 7th round pick and not Reggie Bush?” We know, we get it, yeah, what a freaking shock, now just stop.)
One big caveat here is injuries. To close the deal, Derek’s team needs to stay healthy, and in Bulger and Brian Westbrook he’s got two major injury risks. He had a third (with Warrick “Duck” Dunn) but moved him in the deal for LJ. Kellen Winslow also is somewhat of an injury risk, but he has not seen a lot of football action in his career and had over a year to heal from his motorcycle accident and broken collarbone so should be OK.
The other big caveat is that, other than Marques Colston, Derek doesn’t have any home run guys to trade. There are some good lottery tickets, like Aaron Rodgers and (maybe) Jerious Norwood, but no one that anyone is going to dump their whole team for. Granted, receivers are fairly easy to find, but guys who put up the numbers that Colston has put up for $1 are not. However, Andrew Walter just sucks (you bypassed Matt Leinart for HIM??!??).
The above noted you have to figure that, based on history, Derek has a good trade or two in him. You have to figure in those trades, he is going to pull a rabbit out of the hat, as he always seems to. And you have to figure that, at the end, he is going to be right there. He usually is, and after it happens 100 times, you can see it’s no accident.
…AND THE FAVORITE (AT LEAST THIS WEEK)
1. PGia Panthers
Odds to win: 4-5
Odds to finish in the money: 1-10
Female celebrity 2006 teams most evokes: Tracey Pollan.
Who?
This is Michael J. Fox’s wife. He met her when he was on “Family Ties”, she played a girlfriend he had and lost. (This was before they hooked him up with Courtney Cox on the show.) It was when Fox broke up with Pollan on the show that they used the song, “At this Moment”, by Billy Vera and the Beaters, to chronicle their breakup. As I told George (one of my co-workers) in an e-mail, “Fox hit an Albert Pujols moonshot off of Brad Lidge with his wife.” Fox himself observed (correctly) that his wife was “more desirable than girls half her age.” Check. Plus, she basically gave up her career to raise their kids. Check. And you just know that they have a fist-tight bond – I would say it is as tight as Paul Newman and Joanne Woodward. Yeah, that tight. Check. Dude has got it all, and I say that knowing damn full well that he has Parkinson’s. Who wouldn’t want to be him?
Now:
Why do I say this? Because I think Pete’s got the team of destiny this year. Everything’s gone his way. Start off with Donovan McNabb. No one’s been better, week in, week out. No TO? No problem. Why have TO when you can be throwing to Hank “Pic-a-nic” Baskett? He had Frank Gore, who is in the middle of a breakout season (more on that in a bit). He also has Marvin Harrison (enough said), Joe Horn (career revival in New Orleans) and Santana Moss. Willis McGahee has been a disappointment, but Travis Henry has emerged as the go-to guy in Tennessee. And the Bears defense – like Donovan McNabb, just so much better than everyone else. Oh, and by the way, he also got Damon “Baby” Huard out of the pool, not a bad #2 QB. Funny how the guy who replaces an injured Trent Green always turns out to be All-World.
As if that wasn’t enough, Pete was the first one to make his move for the title. He traded Frank Gore to PGar for Deuce McAllister (almost as good), David Carr (great reserve option/good keeper), and Mushmouth (decent option at wideout). When you make your run, you need to do these things to give yourself a chance to win, and it helps if you do it early. Pete did this, and his team will be better for it.
Oh and by the way, while my record in handicapping the standings these years has been spotty, I have picked the winner each of the last four years. Warrants mentioning. Also that Meredith Baxter and Michael Gross (who played Fox’s parents on Family Ties) were born on the same day, in the same year. Thought I would throw that in there as well.
To wrap up: I should say that, while it may not be exactly in line with the theme of this piece, I think I have the best girl of all. Don’t you agree?
And so it is, the reverse of two years ago. Two Petes bookending each other….and, somehow, this does seems a little more normal, don’t you think?
