You Pick, You Stick

With one day to go I do not think we have seen a race like this in the history of this league. Bob JR took the lead last night thanks to a tour de force/going away present from Tiki Barber, who I think wound up with the best game of his career last night, league-wise.



That said we now have 6 guys within shouting distance for the lead. At this point, any of these guys can finish anywhere between 1 and 6, and we won't likely know until the end of the last game with the Packers and Bears, tonight. So, one more time, let's go through the contenders and weigh up their odds.





Craig: So far: Brandon Jacobs did nothing.

Important games today: Pitt/Cincinnati (Willie), NO/Carolina (Brees, Steve Smith), Dallas/Detroit (Julius)



Craig's problem here is that none of his key guys are really playing for anything. New Orleans's seed is set, and neither Pittsburgh nor Carolina is playing for anything (except, perhaps, to send out Bill Cowher on a high note.) I like Craig's team, but in this dogfight there just doesn't seem to be a lot of upside.



Odds to win: 10-1 Most likely finish: 6th



Walt/Bruce: So far: Plax and Cooley did nothing against the Redskins.

Important games today: SD/Arizona (duh), Jets/Raiders (Pennington and the Jets defense).



All season long Walt and Bruce have been reliant on LDT, and today is no exception. To claim the top spot they'll need a big day out of LDT. Problem is, San Diego has pretty much clinched everything and they are not going to do much to put Tomlinson at risk. Expect 100 yards and a TD today - not bad, but it won't be enough to put him in the top spot. Although Pennington and the Jets defense is the right play, and should give them enough to ensure they finish in the top 5.



Odds to win: 5-1 Most likely finish: 5th



DA Dolphins: So far: No one yesterday

Key games today: Bears/Packers (Favre, Tom Jones), SD/Arizona (Edge, Boldin, Vince Jackson, SD Defense), Philly/Atlanta (Westbrook, Stallworth)



Having Westbrook is huge, Philly is going to need him today. Derek also has Vince Jackson, who will get some work today, the San Diego defense, going against Kurt Warner, and Brett Favre, still playing with a shot at the playoffs today. Whether they put up enough points to catapault to the top remains to be seen but it's definitely not a bad slate to go in with at all. I do think a lot needs to go right for them to win it all, though. But they should finish in the money.



Odds to win: 3-1 Most likely finish: 4th



Anthonyapolis Colts: So far, no one has played yet.

Key games: Dallas/Detroit (Tony Romo (not TONY), Roy Williams), Minnesota/STL (Chester Taylor), Cin/Pitt (Rudi Chad), Bal/Buff (Baltimore defense, Lee Evans)



Baltimore's defense is a good play. Both Tony Romo and Roy Williams are going against poor pass defenses, and Rudi and Chad are always good plays. They all have something to play for as well - Dallas for seeding, Romo for redemption, Rudi and Chad for their playoff lives. I would not worry about Romo's poor game last week, guys bounce back from efforts like that all the time. If things break their way they have as good a shot as anyone to win.





Odds to win: 5-2 Most likely finish: 3rd



99 Yarders: So far: Tiki. Enough said.

Key games today: Indy/Miami (Peyton, Miami defense), Phi/Atlanta (Garcia), Dallas/Detroit (Marion Barber)



Tiki's masterpiece yesterday has thrust Bob from the fringe of the race to perhaps the front-runner. I don't know if I trust the rest of his starters, though, and going with Miami's defense as a hedge to Peyton Manning may not be a good thing. Plus there is the risk that if Indy runs and hides that it will be Sorgi time for the Colts. There's defintely enough here to take Bob the rest of the way, but I'm not sure I see it happening.



Odds to win: Even Most likely finish: 2nd, on the strength of Tiki's game yesterday.



PGia Panthers: So far: Eli Manning

Key games today: Tennessee/New England (Brady, Reche Caldwell), NO/Carolina (Deuce), Indy/Miami (Marvin Harrison), Chicago/GB (Mushmouth, Chicago defense)



Playing Manning yesterday didn't work out for PGia. He has Brady going against Tennessee, which may or may not be good (again, there is the risk Brady will be pulled for Matt Cassell). Marvin Harrison is good as he has the potential of keeping Bob's advantage with Peyton Manning in check. The running backs are not what I would call rock-solid - Lundy is shaky with the emergence of Ron Dayne - although McGahee is looking for a contract extension and Huggy Bear JR may be looking to build on next year.



But, I said in Week 10, Pete would take it, and I see nothing here that would cause me to change that. It may not look like the likeliest of bets right now, but in the NFL that's what always seems to happen the most - what you don't expect. It's the guys who are willing to take a shot and bet on that happening that usually win.



Odds to win: 5-6 Most likely finish: 1st





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The Lost Boys.

Here are the Dunce/Value teams for 2005. Hey, better late than never, right?



Dunce:



Quarterback: Alex Smith (Co-Captain), Joey Harrington, Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb.



Running back: Priest Holmes (Co-Captain), Jamal Lewis, Travis Henry, Fred Taylor, Ronnie Brown, Chris Brown.



Wide receiver: Terrell Owens (Captain), Joe Horn (Co-Captain), Darrell Jackson, Ashley Lelie, Nate Burleson, Braylon Edwards, Randy Moss.



Tight end: Tony Gonzalez, Daniel Graham.



Kicker: Sebastian Janikowski, John Carney.



Defense: New England, Dallas.





Value:



Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Co-Captain), Eli "On Whitney" Manning, Drew Brees, Mark Brunell.



Running back: Larry Johnson (Captain), Willie Parker (Co-Captain), "Menudo" LaMont Jordan, Warrick "Duck" Dunn, Steven Jackson, Thomas Jones.



Wide receiver: Joey Galloway (Co-Captain), Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Chris Chambers, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Terry "She's doing OK" Glenn, Donald "Excellent" Driver.



Tight end: Jeremy Shockey, Jason Witten.



Kicker: Neil Rackers, Jeff Wilkins.



Defense: Chicago, Denver.

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Dunce/Value Team 2006

Presenting the Value and Dunce teams for 2006:



Dunce: (Starters in Bold)



Quarterbacks: Jake Delhomme (Co-Captain), Matt Hasselbeck, Drew Bledsoe, David Carr.



No suprise here. Delhomme was someone who had not been in the draft for several years, so there was a "pent-up" demand for him here, resulting in him going about 20-30 more than he should have. Hasselbeck would have been priced right for what he did last year, but he didn't do what he did last year this year.



As far as Bledsoe, the ironic thing is that Jerry Jones WANTED to go with Bledsoe because he thought it gave him a better chance to win now. Turns out, the exact opposite was true. This, I think, is the end of the line for Bledsoe; he might kick around on another team or two as a backup, but his days as a viable starter have come to an end.



As to David Carr, I think he has the goods, but he needs a change of scenery, desperately. Preferably to a team with a big-league offensive line! (Insert George Wendt, Dan Ackroyd, John Goodman, etc. saying 'Da Bears' in fake Chicago accents)

By the way, the competition for these four spots, was fierce. Aaron Brooks, Daunte Culpepper and Jake Plummer could have just as easily made this team.



Running Backs: Shaun Alexander (Captain), Willis McGahee (Co-Captain), Kevin Jones, Clinton Portis, Mo Morris (2006 Derek Loville Award winner), Reggie Bush, Edgerrin James.



Again, this should not suprise anyone that follows this league. The decision to take Shaun Alexander over Ladainian turned the fates of countless fantasy league teams, including one unfortunate team in this league! As far as McGahee, for $7.20 he would have been fine, for $72 he gets the Dunce cap. Kevin Jones is turning into one of those guys who always tantalizes with his talent - you would think, in that offense, there is NO WAY he isn't going to get big points - but, he has never amounted much to anything, and it is doubtful that he will at this point.



As to why Reggie Bush is on this list. The value he has brought to the Saints is almost everywhere BUT on the field. Bush was pretty much all sizzle and no steak this year, didn't bring a lot to his teams. I know that, in this league, "appearances in Pepsi and Subway commericals" is not a category, which hinders his value, somewhat. Additionally, it is hard for me to get excited about a guy when they say that his ceiling is to be Warrick Dunn or Brian Westbrook. Basically, like a 3rd down back, except in on all downs. Not that those guys aren't solid guys, but I don't think those are the kinds of RBs that win championships as the feature backs.









Wide Receivers: Randy Moss (Co-Captain), Santana Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Derrick Mason, Troy Williamson



In the past, it was always guys that languished in other places who came to Oakland to flourish. Think Ted "The Mad Stork" Hendricks coming from the Colts, Jim Plunkett coming from New England and the 49ers, Lyle Alzado coming from the Broncos. Even Rich Gannon, a journeyman who had his best years in Oakland. Now, it's guys like Randy Moss - who flourished in Minnesota, who is foundering in Oakland, who bitches about the negativity on the team. What's wrong with this picture?



As to why TWO is on this team. Must you ask?



Tight Ends: Randy McMichael, Vernon Davis.



This is the portion of the Dunce team where we have to reach for our choices. We are all so smart now that we know that you can't be paying $20-30 for a tight end, so we have to reach.



Neither one of these guys did what they were supposed to. McMichael was all but cut out of the Dolphin offense as a receiver. Vernon Davis was supposed to be the Next Big Thing and even a strong last couple of weeks doesn't keep him off this list. Even though he may very well be kept for 6, and that would be the right call.



Kickers: Mike Vanderjerk (Co-Captain), Neil Rackers



As to why Vanderjerk is on this team - again, must you ask? Rackers went from career fantasy year to just another stiff thrown into a trade. Nuff said.



Defenses: Indianapolis, Washington.



Horrible defenses from a fantasy standpoint. They don't get any return touchdowns, no interceptions, nothing. And aren't these defenses supposed to be run by smart, defensive-oriented coaches? On the plus side, it looks like, for the first time, Indianapolis is going to enter the preseason with no pressure. Nobody trusts them, everyone expects them to gag like a schoolgirl in the first round. Which they probably will (sorry TONY) but, you never know.







Value Team 2006:



Quarterbacks: Tony Romo (Co-Captain), Drew Brees (Co-Captain), Vince Young, Joey Harrington



Romo gets the first slot over Brees because, as magical and transcendant as Brees's year was, Romo was the bigger find. While it became apparent early on that Romo would eventually get the nod as Dallas starting QB, no one could have expected him to be the difference maker he has become. As much as anyone, his emergence enabled TONY and Phil to make other trades to help them, that give them a very real chance to win.



Brees bucked the conventional wisdom that young QBs in their first new team need a year to adjust. A guy who you can just plug in, week in week out and start every week. Beware though - Brees also won the "Most likely to go for $80 and wind up Dunce team Captain" in 2007. If he is on the cover of Madden 2008, I would say, stay away!



Young in some ways reminds me of Steve McNair - he may not put up great numbers, but is always a threat to and he's a winner and a gamer. I have been pleasantly suprised by how good he has been, I didn't think he would be nearly this good right away. He is also the most likely to follow Brett Favre and Steve McNair on Bill Simmons's "QB not to bet against under any circumstances" list.



Harrington has done fairly well as Culpepper's replacement. Like David Carr, he needed a change of scenery and he seems to be doing OK with it. I don't think you can win the Super Bowl with him but he is reliable as far as he goes.





Running backs: Ladainian Tomlinson (Captain), Chester Taylor (Co-Captain), Willie Parker, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, Deuce McAllister



You heard me. Ladainian Tomlinson is a difference maker, and has nearly DOUBLE the score of his nearest competitor at RB. To put it another way: Without LDT, Walt and Bruce are floundering in 7th or 8th. With LDT, they are legitimate title contenders. It is like Buddy Ryan used to say about Randall Cunningham - he gave the Eagles an offense, when they had no offense. Same thing with LDT - he gives Walt and Bruce a team, when they have no team. And he could give them a ring and a time-share at the big-boy table.



By the way, at the end of the 2005 season one guy in this league had both LT AND Drew Brees. Wonder what happened to him.



Tomlinson's tour de force overshadows Chester Taylor's magnificent breakout year. Until getting hurt before Chet Taylor was one of the best guys in this league, and still someone TONY and Phil could have gotten a shitload for. Had they pulled the trigger on a two-for-one for him, with Taylor out and banged up, it could have gotten them the inside track on another ring. Still, going in with him for next year AND a legitimate shot for next year is not half bad.



Parker deserved to be on the value team last year, but I never got around to doing it. Maurice Jones-Drew has exceeded expectations and is a great deal at 11. Like Parker, Gore deserved to be all-value last year and is still a great value and a cornerstone. Likewise, I think everyone wrote off Deuce McAllister a wee bit too early. He is still viable and still a vital part of the Saints' attack. Kudos as well for bouncing back from the ACL so quickly, usually that takes a good year to bounce back from. Don't believe me, ask Daunte Culpepper.



Laurence Maroney does not quite make the cut this year, but I still like the trade for next year. And remember, I made it for NEXT YEAR. Remember this when I come to you NEXT YEAR and offer you Maroney for two of your guys that can help me cement my standing. Would you, out of the money, give those same guys up for Willie Parker, who you cannot keep? I think not!)



Wide Receivers: Braylon Edwards, Javon Walker, Reggie Brown, Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Lee Evans.



A stud WR in Cleveland with no one throwing to him? As Paul Harvey would say: It's true! Brown, and Galloway are all holdovers from 2005 and all exceeded expectations, again. Javon did an excellent job coming back from major injury, even with the soap opera with Jake the Snake and Jay "Phil" Cutler. With regard to Terry Glenn, she also had a good year. Lee Evans did well but, keep in mind, nearly half of his points came in one game that he caught two 83-yard TD passes. His jersey number, is also 83. Hmmmm.....



Tight ends: Desmond Clark, Tony Gonzalez.



A tight end coming out of the pool to have a good year? When the hell does that happen? Also, a big Welcome Back to Tony Gonzalez, (not TONY), who killed owners last year but this year is productive, once again.



Kickers: Rob Bironas, Matt Bryant



Not a banner year for kickers - no one stood out as being a stud - so, this year the award goes to Bironas and Bryant, both of whom kicked 60+ yard game winning field goals, not at high altitude nor with a special boot. Always fun to watch.



One quick sidebar here: does anyone remember Gus the Mule? This was before Mike Eisner came on board and Disney was making these horrible movies with stupid plots and goofy, embarassing characters. This game had a FG kicking mule who was effective from pretty much any point on the field. Although I know it, does anyone else remember the one-word that his trainer used to tell him to kick the football? If you do, you get nothing other than everyone else telling you to get a life! (BTW I think that, for laughs, Garo Yepremian's guest appearance on The Odd Couple was more classic. It was like Borat, but 30 years in advance.)



Defenses: Chicago, Baltimore



(Insert soundbite of Jim Belushi cheering on the Bears in the ESPN Monday Night Football booth here, followed by me going Scott-Brosius-in-Game-5-of-the-2001-World-Series and throwing the TV out the window, followed by Pam saying "What the hell is going on in here," followed by me saying "Uh...um....it isn't working.")



On the other hand, Baltimore was a GREAT get. How in the hell did we all miss this? I also like Rex Ryan, their defensive coordinator, to be the next head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. And, yes, I know his dad was there and failed but I think he's got the goods. Interesting how defensive coordinator for the Ravens has become THE hot assistant gig - among others, Marvin Lewis and Mike Nolan both got their gigs after making a name for themselves there. And both have done well turning around hopeless cases quickly.





There they are....your 2006 All-Dunce and All-Value teams!



Merry Christmas. Good luck down the stretch, and hope Santa is good to you.

Also if you get a chance to see "We Are Marshall," you should go check it out. It is amazing that the program that won 1-AA National Titles and that produced Randy Moss, Chad Pennington and Brian Leftwich, was down as low as they were and came from where they did. (There was also a major recruiting scandal that had broken just before then, which although not mentioned in the movie also held the program back and got it thrown out of the MAC in the first place.) It also turns out, they got a lot of the little details right. Which suprised me.

After you watch this movie, you will realize that, as much as anything else, for every college football program there is always a real chance to achieve great things.

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A Dogfight of Epic Proportions

In all the years that we have been doing these leagues - football, baseball, whatever - I have NEVER - and I mean, EVER - seen a dogfight the way that things are unfolding this year.



Bob SR said about a week ago any of five teams could win this thing. As of this morning, he's absolutely right. Craig's lead over TONY is a single point, although Craig does hold the edge on reserve points. Seven points separate the leader (Craig) from TONY from PGia. Walt and Bruce, who have been doing it with LaDainian and smoke and mirrors, are as close to a win as they ever have been. Bob JR is right there too.



As for Derek and Rob, they are right there as well (only 70 out, not impossible to make up). But, wouldn't it be the Curse of Being Picked Second for the third year in a row? Each year, the team I picked to finish as runner up in the Vegas Odds finished out of the money. And while Derek and Rob have done nothing wrong, and they have done about as well as could reasonably be expected, it is just the way things have worked out. Although, it is not over yet. Like I said - sorry in advance!



Who do I like? I said that PGia had the team to beat after Week 10, and I'm standing by that. It's going to be close but I do think he has the best team. Although if New England sits Brady in Week 17 (highly possible) and he has to rely on Wali Lundy for points, he will be in some trouble (who would have seen Ron Dayne emerge as the go-to guy in Houston, of all people?). But I think, top to bottom, he has the best team and the best shot at the win. TONY is also in good shape and, wouldn't you know, Willie Parker IS making the difference for Craig. As of right now having him in the lineup instead of Maroney moved Craig up from 4th to 1st. (Yes, I would do the trade again and, no, it was for next year.) Oh, and Drew Brees helps as well.



Walt and Bruce are the real wild cards here. More than anyone else they are dependent on one person - LT. LT all by himself has turned Walt and Bruce from being me to potentially champions. Everything depends on if SD has something to play for in week 17. If they do, Walt and Bruce have a real shot. If they don't, they probably don't.



Bob JR is in the same boat, to a lesser extent. If Peyton Manning is needed the last two weeks, he has a much better chance of making a run than if he doesn't.



All of which goes to show you, once again, EVERYTHING you do has consequences. Every move you make, every guy you start or don't start, every FA move you make, it all matters. Even when you think it doesn't matter, it does matter.



As far as Derek and Rob, I don't think they can win at this point, but I do expect them to close the gap. They clearly missed not having Colston those weeks, otherwise they'd be right in the race too.



Updated Odds to win:



PGia: Even

Craig: 6-5

TONY/Phil: 7-5

Walt/Bruce: If LT is needed both weeks, 9-5; if not, 5-1

Bob JR: If Peyton Manning is needed both weeks, 2-1; if not, 4-1

Derek/Rob: 10-1



Dunce/Value teams coming soon. Good luck, guys.

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