In all the years that we have been doing these leagues - football, baseball, whatever - I have NEVER - and I mean, EVER - seen a dogfight the way that things are unfolding this year.
Bob SR said about a week ago any of five teams could win this thing. As of this morning, he's absolutely right. Craig's lead over TONY is a single point, although Craig does hold the edge on reserve points. Seven points separate the leader (Craig) from TONY from PGia. Walt and Bruce, who have been doing it with LaDainian and smoke and mirrors, are as close to a win as they ever have been. Bob JR is right there too.
As for Derek and Rob, they are right there as well (only 70 out, not impossible to make up). But, wouldn't it be the Curse of Being Picked Second for the third year in a row? Each year, the team I picked to finish as runner up in the Vegas Odds finished out of the money. And while Derek and Rob have done nothing wrong, and they have done about as well as could reasonably be expected, it is just the way things have worked out. Although, it is not over yet. Like I said - sorry in advance!
Who do I like? I said that PGia had the team to beat after Week 10, and I'm standing by that. It's going to be close but I do think he has the best team. Although if New England sits Brady in Week 17 (highly possible) and he has to rely on Wali Lundy for points, he will be in some trouble (who would have seen Ron Dayne emerge as the go-to guy in Houston, of all people?). But I think, top to bottom, he has the best team and the best shot at the win. TONY is also in good shape and, wouldn't you know, Willie Parker IS making the difference for Craig. As of right now having him in the lineup instead of Maroney moved Craig up from 4th to 1st. (Yes, I would do the trade again and, no, it was for next year.) Oh, and Drew Brees helps as well.
Walt and Bruce are the real wild cards here. More than anyone else they are dependent on one person - LT. LT all by himself has turned Walt and Bruce from being me to potentially champions. Everything depends on if SD has something to play for in week 17. If they do, Walt and Bruce have a real shot. If they don't, they probably don't.
Bob JR is in the same boat, to a lesser extent. If Peyton Manning is needed the last two weeks, he has a much better chance of making a run than if he doesn't.
All of which goes to show you, once again, EVERYTHING you do has consequences. Every move you make, every guy you start or don't start, every FA move you make, it all matters. Even when you think it doesn't matter, it does matter.
As far as Derek and Rob, I don't think they can win at this point, but I do expect them to close the gap. They clearly missed not having Colston those weeks, otherwise they'd be right in the race too.
Updated Odds to win:
PGia: Even
Craig: 6-5
TONY/Phil: 7-5
Walt/Bruce: If LT is needed both weeks, 9-5; if not, 5-1
Bob JR: If Peyton Manning is needed both weeks, 2-1; if not, 4-1
Derek/Rob: 10-1
Dunce/Value teams coming soon. Good luck, guys.
Bob SR said about a week ago any of five teams could win this thing. As of this morning, he's absolutely right. Craig's lead over TONY is a single point, although Craig does hold the edge on reserve points. Seven points separate the leader (Craig) from TONY from PGia. Walt and Bruce, who have been doing it with LaDainian and smoke and mirrors, are as close to a win as they ever have been. Bob JR is right there too.
As for Derek and Rob, they are right there as well (only 70 out, not impossible to make up). But, wouldn't it be the Curse of Being Picked Second for the third year in a row? Each year, the team I picked to finish as runner up in the Vegas Odds finished out of the money. And while Derek and Rob have done nothing wrong, and they have done about as well as could reasonably be expected, it is just the way things have worked out. Although, it is not over yet. Like I said - sorry in advance!
Who do I like? I said that PGia had the team to beat after Week 10, and I'm standing by that. It's going to be close but I do think he has the best team. Although if New England sits Brady in Week 17 (highly possible) and he has to rely on Wali Lundy for points, he will be in some trouble (who would have seen Ron Dayne emerge as the go-to guy in Houston, of all people?). But I think, top to bottom, he has the best team and the best shot at the win. TONY is also in good shape and, wouldn't you know, Willie Parker IS making the difference for Craig. As of right now having him in the lineup instead of Maroney moved Craig up from 4th to 1st. (Yes, I would do the trade again and, no, it was for next year.) Oh, and Drew Brees helps as well.
Walt and Bruce are the real wild cards here. More than anyone else they are dependent on one person - LT. LT all by himself has turned Walt and Bruce from being me to potentially champions. Everything depends on if SD has something to play for in week 17. If they do, Walt and Bruce have a real shot. If they don't, they probably don't.
Bob JR is in the same boat, to a lesser extent. If Peyton Manning is needed the last two weeks, he has a much better chance of making a run than if he doesn't.
All of which goes to show you, once again, EVERYTHING you do has consequences. Every move you make, every guy you start or don't start, every FA move you make, it all matters. Even when you think it doesn't matter, it does matter.
As far as Derek and Rob, I don't think they can win at this point, but I do expect them to close the gap. They clearly missed not having Colston those weeks, otherwise they'd be right in the race too.
Updated Odds to win:
PGia: Even
Craig: 6-5
TONY/Phil: 7-5
Walt/Bruce: If LT is needed both weeks, 9-5; if not, 5-1
Bob JR: If Peyton Manning is needed both weeks, 2-1; if not, 4-1
Derek/Rob: 10-1
Dunce/Value teams coming soon. Good luck, guys.
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