Ameche/Abitz League - 2007 Dunce/Value Team

Presenting the 14th annual Ameche League Dunce and Value teams:

Value team: (Starters in Bold)
Quarterbacks: Tony Romo (not TONY) (Captain), Tom Brady (Co-Captain), Derek Anderson, Brett Favre
Running Backs: Adrian Peterson (Min) (co-captain), Antonio "Huggy Bear" Fargas, Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, LenDale White, Joseph "Live and Let" Addai
Wide Receivers: Randy Moss (co-captain), Wes Welker, Braylon Edwards, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, Andre "I missed half the freaking season" Johnson.
Tight ends: Jason Witten, Heath Miller
Kickers: Rob "My" Bironas, Mason Crosby
Defenses: Minnesota, Seattle

Dunce team:
Quarterbacks: JP Losman (Co-Captain), Eli Manning, Vince Young, Marc Bulger
Running Backs: Larry Johnson (Captain), Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson, Ced Benson, Tom Jones, Reggie Bush.
Wide Receivers: Lee Evans (Co-Captain), Donald "Duck" Driver, Anquan Boldin, Marvin Harrison, Calvin Johnson, Hines Ward, Mike Furrey.
Tight ends: Leonard Pope, Vernon Davis
Kickers: Jay "Mr. Mc" Feely, Neil "Nice" Rackers
Defenses: San Francisco, Baltimore


Other achievements of note:

The next time Derek whines and carries on about some injustice in one of these Leagues, keep this in mind: In his football picks column, Bill Simmons told of a friend of his who was in a $100K a head fantasy league. This past week, his friend lost by 5 points - and he had Westbrook.

Ah, yes, that would explain it: A sign spotted at the Giants/Redskins game this past week: "He's Adopted."

All I want for Christmas: A remake the movie "Knocked Up" with TONY (in the money role), Ed "EA3" Ahlberg, Jim McKenna and TONY's brother PETE. All other cast stays the same, including specifically Kat Heigl.

And when this comes to pass, you'll see this exchange in the nightclub scene, for sure:
TONY: Hey, Ed, go ask that girl to dance
EA3: But, TONY, she has a ring on!
TONY: I don't care if she has a dick in her mouth, you ask her to dance!!
(The girl, all pissed off, holds her left hand in front of both of their faces, shakes it, and walks off.)

(Note: This really happened. And no, it never gets old.)

Proof once again that it isn't how the trade looks when it was made, but how it works out after the trade was made: Despite leading the NFL in rushing at the time he got hurt, Willie Parker had almost as many points as Frank Gore - and Gore is considered to have had a massively dissapointing season.

The biggest mistake Imus made: Bending over backwards repeatedly trying to apologize for his remark. First of all, as most of you married guys know, apologizing for something does nothing other than empower your better half. The more you apologize, or make self-effacing remarks, the deeper the hole you dig for yourself, and the weaker you make yourself look.

Second, he needed to know that all the apologies in the world were not going to help his cause at that point. Indeed, the more he apologized, the more the media and the Reverend Als in the world turned the screws. I saw it, and it made me sick. Did anyone show any more mercy than if he didn't apologize? No. Did all the good work that Don did with sick kids matter worth a damn? No. He broke the cardinal rule of this society: Don't say anything that could in any way even remotely be taken as derogatory or racist. For this, this will tag him the rest of his days. And it shouldn't be.

Was it the smartest thing that he could have said? No. Was it something that, even given that I would not suffer any adverse consequences from saying it, I would have said? No. But at the end of the day, it was just words, and part of being an adult is shaking off words that hurt. Sticks and stones. (For that matter, other parts of being an adult is making up your own mind about stuff and what you believe in and how you treat people, and not blindly following the lead of some dumbkauf just because he has a radio show.)

No, I am not a fan of Imus. Yes, I see him as largely irredeemable old coot. And I do think that, if advertisers hadn't bailed, and if CBS wasn't looking for a wafer-thin (pronounced waffer-thin) excuse to get out from his onerous contract, he would still be at the Fan today. Indeed, after his "time-out", he is now back on the air, although perhaps not as prominent a piece of real estate as he once had.

If nothing else though Don has proven himself fiercely loyal over the years (ask Charles McCord and Bernie McGuirk) and his heart does seem to be in the right place with sick kids. I mean, what the hell has Reverend Al, or Reverend Jesse, or any of these holier-than-thou midgets in the media done to help other people? And I mean REAL help, and selfless help, not this "one world/common ground" bullshit that winds up being all about them and their ego first and foremost.

The thing that made me most angry about the whole thing: The self-serving press release from CBS honcho Les Moonves, who condemned Imus for his "repugnant" remarks and stated that such antics "would not be tolerated". This pissed me off for a number of reasons. First and foremost because it seemed equal parts holier-than-thou, and kowtowing to the PC police and the Reverend Als of the world.

The second thing that pissed me off was something that my brother pointed out - nowhere in the release did Moonves thank Imus for his efforts of the prior 20 years. When Imus went to WFAN in 1988, after the frequency switch to 660am, sports radio was still something of a grand experiment. Emmis Broadcasting (which would eventually be swallowed up by CBS) made the grand experiment of having a general interest radio show in the morning, followed by sports all day. The experiment was an unqualified success, which eventually led to WFAN becoming the highest-grossing radio station in America. It also paved the way for groundbreaking shows like the Mike and the Mad Dog show, Mike and Mike, Jim Rome, the Sports Bash and countless others. When ESPN Radio threw its hat in the ring in 1992, it vindicated that what the FAN had tried to establish was a viable business model. In a lot of ways, sports radio - and certainly WFAN - became what it is today because of Don Imus.

Plus, like him or hate him, Imus does have a loyal following, he did bring in advertising dollars, and he was a big part of that station's success for a number of years - including the CBS years, for which Moonves was a direct beneficiary. Yet, in his press release, Moonves revealed that it was more important to save his own hide, even if it meant unceremoniously and ingloriously kicking Imus to the curb.

Is that a guy you would want to work for? Is that a guy you would want to be friends or colleagues with?

In a related story, Yankee fans cheered wildly for Darryl Strawberry and Roger Clemens once upon a time too: The incident that Reverend Al Sharpton came to national prominence for - the whole Tawana Brawley thing - turned out to be largely, if not completely, a fabrication.

If the guy the Patriots takes wears a cream-colored pinstriped suit, then it will be time to panic!: The Patriots will get the 49ers 1st round draft pick next year, which will most likely be in the Top 5.

I guess Charlie Casserly wasn't an idiot after all: Reggie Bush, on IR and considered largely a dissapointment. Vince Young, starting and playing fair but definitely NOT having a banner year. Mario Williams - among the lead leaders in sacks, always commands a double team makes the defense better.

As I said at the time - and I think the post is still on this blog, somewhere - defensive end is one of THE toughest positions to fill on a team. More to the point, when a team develops a quality defensive end, they almost never let him go - witness the Pats with Richard Seymour, the Bills with Bruce Smith back in the day, etc. By contrast, running backs and quarterbacks can be found in the late rounds and/or the scrap heap. Willie Parker was undrafted, and Ryan Grant was lightly regarded. Justin Fargas was best known for being Huggy Bear's son, but when he got a chance he had some good games as well.

Nor do you need me to tell you that Tom Brady and Tony Romo (not TONY) went from being draft-day afterthoughts and bench jockeys to being studs among studs, leading all NFL players in jerseys sold and dating starlets. (The same applies in the real world as well - excelling in school and/or going to the "right" school doesn't guarantee success, although it makes it easier to achieve. By contrast, treading water in school grade-wise and/or going to a lesser regarded school is not a death sentence, although it does make success somewhat more of a challenge. In the end, the ones who want it the most and who work the hardest are the ones who achieve.)

Oh, for the good old days of the Sullivans and Victor Kiam: Although Arthur Blank seems like a nice guy and a decent human being, so far his football judgement leaves a lot to be desired.

First is the big bet he made on Michael Vick. I have to think that, especially with NFL Security being what it is, that Blank did this more out of desperation and hope than anything else. That his best hope for a franchise savior was the guy he already had on board.

He had to know that Vick, despite his image, was perhaps not all that he was cracked up to be. Maybe his sources didn't point out that he was involved to the level that he was. But he had to know, that it all was not savory, and indeed nothing in the media points to a complete breakdown in this regard. Additoinally, his brother Marcus's legal troubles had to be something of a red flag as well. Bottom line, there had to be signs there that common sense would have picked up.

Second is the way that he railroaded Jim Mora out of there. Mora got them to the NFC Championship his first year there (2004). Yet, after a mediocre 2006, he cut Mora loose. To replace him he hired Bobby Petrino, which was brutal on two levels. Aside from the fact that generally college coaches don't make it in the NFL and never have, is the fact that Petrino had never been more than 4 years at any one job, and he made a run at the Auburn job while at Louisville!!! What did this tell you about his wanderlust, his always thirsting for the next big challenge/payday? What did it tell you about his character?

Lastly is the way that he is letting GM Rich McKay twist in the wind, essentially offering his job to Bill Parcells. Yes, McKay has had some missteps, and everyone killed him for trading Matt Schaub. But even so, it's looking like McKay, in fact, sold high on Schaub. If the Texans decided to go with Sage Rosenfels next year, would they be able to get a #2 for him? No. Plus, McKay helped make the Buccaneers - the Buccaneers! - into a perennial winner, and seems to have done OK with the Falcons, his bad luck with QBs this year notwithstanding.

As Gregg Easterbrook has pointed out, teams often will make changes in coachs and GMs to give fans hope and to sell tickets and corporate sponsorships. This is true, but I think an equally powerful reason is that, maybe, this time you'll find the guy who makes it all work, who will be your coach for the next 10-15 years. Indeed, this is what happened when the Patriots replaced Pete Carroll and Bobby Grier with Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli, or when Jerry Jones replaced Tom Landry (who was well past his prime) with Jimmy Johnson (the exception that proves the rule that big time college coaches can't make it in the NFL). I think Mike Tomlin can be that kind of guy for the Steelers, too. Most of the time though, you get teams replacing hacks with equal or lesser hacks, like Marty Schottenheimer with Norv Turner, Nick Saban with Cam Cameron, Bill Callahan with Norv Turner, Bud Grant with Les Steckel with Bud Grant with Jerry Burns with Dennis Green with Mike Tice (sorry, Bruce), Steve Mariucci with Dennis Erickson....or Richie Petitbon with Norv Turner (sorry, Walt).

If Scott Bakula leaped into Arthur Blanks body to make things better, what would be the first thing he would do?: Hire Marty Schottenheimer and leave him alone. If the Falcons do nothing else other than hire Marty, he will have them winning and in the playoffs in 2 years and maybe sooner. Playoff failures aside, he's a proven winner at the NFL level, and players love him and play hard for him.

What would be the second thing Bakula/Blank would do?: Direct Rich McKay (that's Rich McKay) to rebuild the offensive and defensive lines. No, it's not glamorous, and it won't get you talked about on SportsCenter. That is, until you start winning 10-12 games a year and making deep runs in the playoffs.

Oh, and by the way, did I mention that I wouldn't hire them back to scrub toilets?: Charger GM AJ Smith (who railroaded Schottenheimer out of San Diego) on the likelihood of Charger assistant GM Buddy Nix and Marty reuniting in Atlanta: "They had an excellent relationship....they went out to dinner, talked every day...." Point being, Smith did not say a word about the quality of work that either one did while under Smith's management.

In a related story, Barry Bonds fully expects to be ready for training camp next summer: Prior to his initially pleading not guilty in Federal court, Michael Vick's attorney read the following passage from a statement that he stated were Vick's words:

"I would also like to apologize to my teammates, for missing the beginning of spring training."

As my brother said at the best man toast at my wedding: "I can't make this stuff up; I don't have to."

In any case, before the Dolphins make playoff plans, consider this: Bill Belichick has won without Bill Parcells - but Bill Parcells has never won without Bill Belichick.

The latest evidence of the toll the writer's strike has taken: Starting January 6th, NBC will be re-launching a big budget version of "American Gladiators", the ultra-cheesy late 80s-early 90s syndicated pseudo-sports show that made "Almost Anything Goes" look upscale by comparison. No, I don't think that Mike Adamle and Larry Csonka will be on board this time around.

If this writer's strike continues on, here are some additional shows that you can expect to see re-launched:

"The Joker's Wild" (with your host, Dan Patrick)
"The 1.98 Beauty Show" (with your host, Mario "Steampipe Alley" Cantone, and tell me he would not be a perfect fit for that show.) (insert off-color "Steampipe" joke here)
"Dating Game '08" (subtitled, "The Original Bachelor/Bachelorette")
"The Isiah Thomas Hour"
"Sing Along with Yoko"

From the same guy who says that George Foreman and Tony Bennett (yes, the boxer and the singer) are the same person: It says here that Wade Phillips, is the Joe Torre of the NFL. Think about it:

Prior to 1996, Torre had had multiple stops as a manager with very limited success; prior to 2006, Phillips had had multiple stops as a head coach with very limited success.

Both had been considered something of a punch line, although players did respect them and enjoyed playing for them.

Both went to iconic but faded franchises run by charismatic but meddlesome owners that, largely as a result of the owner's meddling, were many years removed from their most recent glory.

Both replaced autocratic and demanding leaders who had resigned of their own volition.

Torre inherited young players like Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Andy Petitte, who thrived under his leadership. Phillips inherited young players like Tony Romo (not TONY), Patrick Crayton and Marion Barber, who thrived under his leadership.

Torre also inherited notorious head cases and problem children like Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry, and got them to (largely) walk the line and got the most out of them while earning their unconditional respect. Phillips inherited notorious head cases like Terrell Ownes, and got them to (largely) walk the line and got the most out of them while earning their unconditional respect.

Torre came to the Yankees after the Yankees lost a heartbreaking first-round series to Seattle that they very easily could have won. Phillips came to the Cowboys after the Cowboys lost a heartbreaking first-round game to Seattle that they very easily could have won.

Both quickly proved to be in the right guy in the right place at the right time. Torre won immediately with his new team and quickly silenced his critics. Phillips has won and won big his first season with the Cowboys and quickly silenced his critics.

How does this factor in with everything else? Keep reading.

Predictions for the Postseason and one more set of analogies:

AFC: Wild Weekend: Jacksonville over San Diego; Pittsburgh over Tennessee
Divisonal round: New England over Jacksonville; Indy over Pittsburgh
Conference champion: New England

NFC: Wild Weekend: Washington over Seattle; NY Giants over Tampa
Divisional round: Dallas over Washington; Green Bay over NY Giants
Conference Champion: Dallas

Super Bowl 42: Dallas 23, New England 20
You read that right.

Why do I, a Patriot fan, think Dallas is going to go the distance?: Because Dallas to me is a team of destiny. They remind me of the 2001 Patriots, and the Patriots remind me of the 2001 Rams, in so many ways.

The 2001 Patriots were considered a 'who-dat' team who got where they were by a bunch of lucky breaks, not the least of which was the snow game. The 2001 Cowboys are considered a team that is as dominant as they are because their conference is weak by comparison and have gotten lucky in a number of their games, including the Buffalo and Detroit games.

The 2001 "Max-Q" Rams were known as an offensive circus who were led by an overlooked but clutch Quarterback, who had a strong defense to match. Just like these 2007 Patriots.

The 2001 Patriots played the Rams tough at home before losing. The 2007 Cowboys played the Patriots tough at home before losing.

The Max Q Rams had a full-tilt, balls-to-the-wall 24/7 attitude that pissed other teams off. These Patriots have a full-tilt, balls-to-the-wall 24/7 attitude that pisses other teams off.

The 2001 Patriots were led by a coach who had achieved little in his prior head coaching stop, and who, at the time, was considered a question mark. The 2007 Cowboys are led by a coach who had achieved little in his prior head coaching stops, and who was considered a question mark.

The 2001 Rams were led by a coach who many did not like and who felt was just a wee bit too smug and sure of himself. The 2007 Patriots are led by a coach who many do not like and who many feel is just a wee bit too smug and sure of himself.

The 2001 Patriots were led by a previously obscure QB who replaced Drew Bledsoe and was considered somewhat unproven in big spots. The 2007 Cowboys are led by a previously obscure QB who replaced Drew Bledsoe and was considered somewhat unproven in big spots.

The 2001 Patriots played their final season at the old Foxboro Stadium before moving to Gillette. The 2007 Cowboys are playing their next-to-last season at Texas Stadium before moving to the new stadium in Arlington.

Not least of all, the 2001 Patriots were considered a team of destiny - from winning games that they probably shouldn't have won (San Diego in Week 5, the Snow Game, the conference championship against Pittsburgh) and were lightly regarded in the Super Bowl before pulling off what many considered a huge upset. Likewise, these 2007 Cowboys are considered a team of destiny, having won games that they had no business winning (Detroit, Buffalo after Romo threw 5 interceptions, 2 that were run back for scores), and certainly would be considered a prohibitive dog if this matchup does come to pass.

Of course, I'm a Patriot fan so I hope that I am wrong here. But, as Chris Berman always says, "That's why they play the games." Booyeah!

And finally, the Patriots need to figure out a way to work this into the game presentation before the playoffs: During Boston Celtics home games, once the game is in the bag, they play "Shake Your Booty" while showing fans of the Celtics dancing in the stands intersperced with '70s clips from American Bandstand. The money clip, as it were, is a shot of this dude, GINO, who as Bill Simmons put it has "a scary, George Lucas-looking beard" and with "Kevin McHale's arms (on a 6-foot frame)" Anyway, the fans eat it up, and when they show GINO (actually a cat wearing a Gino Vanelli tour t-shirt), the crowd goes bananas.

Hey, they had Youkilis, Papi and Schill at today's game with the trophys (which I'm pissed I missed out on BTW). Why the hell not this?

Vegas Odds 2007 - A Veteran's Day Tradition

First of all, this Vegas Odds posting is sponsored by Frank TV, premiering November 20 on TBS. (insert shot of Caliendo dressed as John Madden saying "Terducken!" here)


First of all, this year, for me anyway, has a quasi deja vu feel to it. I did not adopt any little girls this year; but the Red Sox won the World Series, the Patriots are kicking ass, and I am in the top half of the standings (brain freezes with Phillip Rivers and Tennessee over Seattle notwithstanding.)

As Mel Brooks said in History of the World Part I, "But - dot, dot, dot - you don't understand!!!"

I think more than anything else, this year is showing just how evenly balanced and competitive this league is. As of this moment only 191 points separate the penthouse (Coin Tossers) from....ahem....the non-penthouse (D&B Roadrunners). This I think is a tribute to this league and the competitiveness and evenness of competition. And, although there will almost certainly be some separation in the weeks ahead, would it suprise anyone if any of the teams in the top 5 wind up finishing out of the money entirely? Would it suprise anyone if one of the teams bottom feeding right now made a mad run to finish in the first division? With a bit less than half a season to go, the distance between 5th and 11th, is only 106 points. To show you how easy that is to bridge: consider that teams gained 60 or 70 points in the standings with weeks that were very good, but hardly earth-shattering.

And so with that, we now go to the Odds section of our program. Caution, these passages may contain tangents and rants that have nothing to do with this league, football or anything relevant:

(Note: All odds based on 100 bets. +500=bet 100 to win 500; -400=bet 400 to win 100)

PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT IN 91 DAYS

11. Bushwackers
Odds to win: +1000
Odds to finish in the money: +275
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Ronnie Brown's ACL. If Ronnie Brown is healthy and productive, Greg's not dumping Drew Brees for Matt "Stump the" Schaub


Almost certainly this will mark Greg's 9th year in the league without a title. You all remember how he burst on the scene in 1998, taking over the charred remains of Rod's old team, and ran off what remains the most dominant run in this league's history. Since then he has been competitive but this year, the breaks just have not gone his way. Although LenDale White is probably a keeper, he has not been a difference maker. Reggie Bush has begun to make his mark in this league, especially now that the training wheels (Deuce McAllister) are now off and his nation needs him more than ever; but the fact remains that, at best, he is basically a glorified 3rd down back. Brian Westbrook and Warrick Dunn in his prime is the best you can hope for. Not a bad thing - those guys are all great - but, an all-timer? No.

The problem with Bush for Greg is that he is a cap hog. If for instance his name was "Kevin Faulk", would he command a return engagement for 40? Probably not. It's like the old axe with Rotisserie baseball: The object of the game is not to own ManRam and Big Papi; the idea is to finish with the most points. (And finish ahead of TONY, but I digress.)

Oh, and by the way, if Gale Sayers came out today, he would be Reggie Bush. A good player that would help a team for a number of years, but not a Hall of Famer. The only difference was that, when Sayers came on the scene, there literally had been nothing like him. Think Oscar Robertson in basketball, or Bobby Orr in hockey. They revolutionized their positions. That was Sayers. Like in Brian's Song, he was the Kansas Comet. Revolutionized the position, unprecedented talent, struck down too soon by injuries, see you in Canton.

By the way, let the record show that, while Sayers was in Chicago, the Bears sucked. Badly. It was the last few years of the George Halas regime, Halas having bought himself several more years after winning the NFL Title in 1963. Also let the record show that Sayers, only played in 68 regular season NFL games. That's right - not even 5 full seasons (even at the time) - and he makes the Hall. And Terrell Davis doesn't even get in the fringes of the discussion. Go figure that out.


10. D&B Roadrunners
Odds to win: +900
Odds to finish in the money: +250
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Actually, 92 reasons: Stephen Jackson. Thanks, Stevie Franchise, for finally deciding to show up this year!!!

In the entire history of this league, no franchise has been battered with the 1x6 of bad luck that Team Gade, Dave and Brandon, have this year. Every year, they make moves that look to be smart. Every year, they don't work out and every year they wind up making trades that, you would think, would put them in great position for next year. Then they have another good draft....and it all goes to hell, again. Lather, rinse, repeat.

This year was no different. They drafted Ben Roethlisberger. Excellent move, as it turned out. They brought back Braylon Edwards, who has turned into an elite NFL receiver. And they had Joseph Addai, stolen last year in one of the more lopsided trades this league has seen. And they had the foresight to draft Jesse Chatman, thus having a primary RB (such as he is) fall into his lap when Ronnie Brown went down.

As it turns out, everything came down to Jackson. Just like Shaun Alexander last year, he came in as THE back to have in this year's draft. And, just like Shaun Alexander last year, he pretty much took the first half of the year off. As things turned out, if Stephen Jackson put up the kind of numbers that he was capable of in the 1st half this season, it would be Team Gade dumping to play. But, even with the league as tight as it is, can you count on Jackson to turn it around? Or do you forego an outside shot at the money now for a better tomorrow, knowing that a lot of the teams in the upper half have or will dump their teams to make a run this year?

Wisely Team Gade cashed out, and did very well. The verdict is out so far on Clemens and Cutler but both will get extended long looks the rest of the season. Cutler especially, Mike Shanahan has basically tied his fate in Denver to Cutler's wagon. Laurence Maroney is the poor man's Stephen Jackson; in that he missed a good chunk of the first half of the season and has underachieved; but you have to figure that, in the offensive circus that is New England (note: no double meaning there), Maroney is going to HAVE to get some for himself. The fact he hasn't is, really, one of the big untold stories of this NFL season. As to Vernon Davis, the 49ers are one of the most pathetic offensive teams in NFL history (note: double meaning alert), but he is a big-time guy and, even this year, Davis has shown flashes proving that he can be productive in that offense.


Sidebar: I cannot speak for anyone else, but Dave reminds me, more than a little bit, of Moose Mason. Pehaps you know this cat, he is one of the prime supporting characters in Archie comic books. Setting aside that, not only have most of this league not as much as picked up an Archie comic book since 1975 (indeed, most of you probably have kids that have not picked up one in many years), they have a lot in common - and all good. Aside from appearances - and to me Dave is a pretty close resemblance, to the point where I would consider suing for copyright infringement - to me anyway, Moose is the one genuine character in that whole strip. Seriously. What you see is what you get. He seems like a well-adjusted guy, maybe a little unsure of himself, but there's not one person in that strip that doesn't like him. Everyone likes him. He's like Stanley in the travel hotel commercials, but if Stanley were a jock.

Perhaps best of all, he landed as his girlfriend Midge Klump. From where I sit, Midge was probably the hottest chick in the whole strip. Certainly, she always seemed to be the one who had the fewest issues - not bitchy and saddled with Daddy issues like Veronica, not insecure and jealous like Betty, she was who she was. And she was loyal to her man. Just a good, satisfying relationship. (The other thing was that Midge might not have been as hot as the other ones, but that paradoxically made her hotter). Perhaps a little high strung, but you come to expect that. There is a reason that certain guys got their asses kicked when they went after her, as they should have.

Anyway, that's my 2c on that. And by the way Moose did play football for Riverdale High so there is your connection. Moving on....



9. Benham Brawlers
Odds to win: +750
Odds to finish in the money: +200
Single biggest reason they are where they are: Ladainian Tomlinson.


Last year at this time, when Ladainian Tomlinson was having a year for the ages, it was said that he was giving Walt and Bruce a team when they didn't have a team. He was exceptional, and up until the final week almost single-handedly gave Walt and Bruce a look at the title, a team that was a championship contender. This year, however, LT is (for him) ordinary, and Walt and Bruce's team is...well, not a championship contender.

In retrospect, what may kill these guys is the trade they made for Marc Bulger. Bulger FINALLY had a good week, this past week but we've seen this before - players who have floundered for most of the year finally put it together, and then go back to the shit heap immediately afterward. Tim Biakabatuka made a career doing this. Selvin Young can be written off as a "who knew", and in that offense his hold on any long-term running back gig is going to be tenuous, at best (insert "Mike Shanahan goes through running back like Larry King goes through wives even though King has been married to the same hottie for more than a decade now" blast). But Santonio Holmes, looks REAL good. Very much a keeper for next year, and a damn good one. Won't he look good lined up next to Marques Colston (who also will be in his last year next year.)

As much as I hate to say it, this right now is a team that is on the precipice of falling out of it completely. They are down to Quinn Gray as a second quarterback. None of their receivers are special, Rudi Johnson is having a terrible year, and they no longer have what would be considered a plum player to trade. Between LT and Portis being solid, they will stay competitive, but too many things need to break their way.

As to the Chargers, they have issues. Big issues. I have covered this before, they have advantages that most teams would kill for. The weather in San Diego is the best in the USA. 70 degrees and sunny all year round. They have one of the best personnel guys in football (AJ Smith), who is smart and canny. For all practical intents and purposes, they are the Los Angeles team in the NFL and have the LA market all to themselves (LA being about 90 minutes away from San Diego). They have great talent on both sides of the ball. They are young. And, not least of all, they have the best uniforms not only in the NFL, but in all of professional sports. I am on record as saying that, if they switch to the powder blues full time and put the numbers back on the helmets, I will be a fan.

But for all the advantages that the Chargers have, they have an equal number of disadvantages, most of their own doing. AJ Smith is brillant, but I sense he is not the easiest guy to work with. He is smart but he also strikes me as a guy who's going to do it his way, and if he doesn't like you, he doesn't like you. You have to wonder about Phillip Rivers' development long term, and how he cannot seem to hang on to the rock. The Chargers' future in San Diego is in doubt, with their continued failure to secure a new stadium (although I always thought they'd be a natural to return to LA, where they played their first season in 1960).

But most of all, I think it is safe to say that, essentially, the Chargers' chances to compete this season were sunk when not only did he fire Marty Schottenheimer, but hired Norv Turner - Norv Turner!!! - to take his place! What, Bum Phillips said no? Did Marion Campbell have a previous engagement? Could Marty Morhinweg not wiggle out of his contract in Philly? As a head coach, Norv is a great offensive coordinator. He did great things last year with the 49er offense, but this year has taken what should be a dominant team, and made them just a run of the mill, middle of the pack team. I cannot think of a more damning indictment of his capabilities as a head coach than that. (For that matter, so goes the argument that, in football, any dunce can win with a talented team.) Plus, it's not like the players like him either - indeed, during the Colts game, guys were already yelling and bitching at Turner. AND THIS WAS IN THE FIRST QUARTER WITH THE CHARGERS HOLDING A 16-0 LEAD!!!!! What is wrong with this picture? Hint: it ain't those sweet powder blues!!!

If there is a silver lining here, it was the move that no one talked about: how AJ Smith hired Ron Rivera to coach the linebackers. You remember Rivera, after the Super Bowl last year he was considered THE hot assistant coach, but couldn't be considered for most jobs because of the Bears' deep playoff run. Oddly, the Bears let him go after the season, for reasons I still don't understand (although the Bears are only slighly less of a cluster you-know-what than the Chargers are.) The Chargers picked him up, maybe to let him have another season of seasoning. But from the time they hired him, I always suspected that, when Turner moves on, Ron Rivera will be the next Charger coach. And that, I think, is the right move.

BTW Fact: the reason the Chargers wear powder blue and gold, was originally to gravy train off of UCLA. As noted above, the Chargers started life in 1960 in the AFL as the LA Chargers. Trying to generate some instant brand identity they basically stole the Bruins' colors, to identify, if only peripherally, with the Bruins. Kind of the same way that the New York Giants got their name, or why the Steelers' original name was the Pirates. Now, ironically enough, it's now the Chargers that everyone associates with the powder blues, even though they only wear them twice a year, at most.

COASTING ON REPUTATION, LIKE AL PACINO IN 'TWO FOR THE MONEY'

8. D.A. Dolphins
Odds to win: +600
Odds to finish in the money: +180
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: The fact that Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson could not and have not adopted to their new surroundings.

If Dave Gade is Moose Mason, then there is no question - absolutely none whatsoever - that Derek is Reggie Mantle. Period. This cannot be denied, there are too many parallels. Both are extreme overachievers. Both have undeniable talent. Both are, ahem, supremely confident. Both talk the talk and walk the walk. Even Reggie has the same last name as a Yankee legend! Plus, I am fairly sure that, if Reggie were in this league, he'd be sending me text messages to get one of my quarterbacks for some scrubbenie that would wind up being cannon fodder in the pool the following week. And, I am sure that, if Derek were at Riverdale High (and not married, natch) he'd be making (successful) plays for Betty and Veronica as well. Shall we shag now or shall we shag later, indeed.

Which begs the question: Who is Garf? Well, I could say Jughead, but Garf doesn't wear a crown and hang out at Pop's Chok'lit (sic) Shop. So that's out. But, still, I don't know, anytime you have a 41-year-old man discussing comic book characters that most 9 year olds consider lame, it is a win. Although I will say, the girls in Archie comic strips were all smoking hot. As hot as anything not in a Boris Vallejo painting. Well, most of them.

Actually, Garf and Derek's team is intriguing. They had Brett Favre (insert .wav file of Ben Stiller saying 'Brett Fav-va-rah' here) and traded him to Pete Gianoni for a package including Adrian Peterson. At the time of the trade, I said it made PGia the favorite. This was before Adrian Peterson went bananas with a 50-point, record setting day (note, just on yardage he hit 26 that afternoon). I would like Derek's chances better with a healthy Peterson (he will miss at least Week 11).

But the trade that might become Herschel Walker in 1989 all over again was, as discussed above, the trade that Derek made with Walt and Bruce - Marc Bulger and Daunte Culpepper for Rex Grossman, Tavaris Jackson, Selvin Young and Santonio Holmes. Bulger is of no value to Derek this year, and Daunte can't beat out Josh McCown for playing time, enough freaking said. Meanwhile, Santonio Holmes has become one of Big Ben's favorite targets, the Denver Wheel of Running Backs has, at least this week, stopped on Selvin Young, Tavaris Jackson is coming back soon and, as bad as Sexy Rexy is, he should still put up medium numbers for the Bears, as long as he plays. This may very well be the rare dump deal that winds up enriching the dumper more than the dumpee in the present time!

Still, you wonder about the depth, how Ocho Cinco will respond to the sinking ship that is the Bengals (so far, not good), how comfortable you can be when your quarterback has already been benched once for Brian Griese, etc. Best guess is that Derek has one more trade in him, to clear out the remaining present value, but will still have enough on deck that he can still manage a halfway decent finish.

By the way, it needs to be noted that, in Spanish, eighty-five is "ochenta cinco". "Ocho Cinco" literally translated is "eight five." Not the same. Babel Fish rules!

7. Tom's Turkeys
Odds to win: +500
Odds to finish in the money: +140
Single biggest reason he is where he is: "Who's your running back Tom?"

Tom is a team that, like most of the teams on the fringe of the race, could go either way. He has some very good pieces - Donovan McNabb, Antonio Gates, the ageless Joey Galloway - but his lack of depth at RB was a fatal blow. Edgerrin James simply is not the back that he was in Indy (and won't be, until Russ Grimm gets that front line to where it needs to be) and none of his other picks worked out.

Until last week it seemed that Tom was going the "get out" mode, trading James and Gates to Craig for a decent package. However it now appears that the trade is off, although it might be resurrected. Although if Tom wants to stay in his only real bargaining chip is Jason Campbell, who by himself would probably not fetch much in trade.

As to the Cardinals, as I said at the beginning of the season this is a team that always seems to be thisclose to turning the corner. There always seems to be just enough going on there for everyone to take them as their big sleeper pick. As John Lennon famously put it, they're a (big) teaser who only takes you half the way there.

But you know what, this time, they may be on to something. I like the way Ken Whisenhunt has made chicken salad with that offense. I think the team has a new attitude. I think Russ Grimm will develop that line to the point where even TONY could run for 1,100 yards. (Well, maybe just 750. But you see me working!) And there are enough pieces on defense, and the new stadium, that they might be on to something, especially when Matt Leinart comes back. For now, I will reserve judgement. Still, like the Pats in 1993, I like what I see over there quite a bit.

THE EVIL EMPIRE '07
(that is, if the evil empire owned 5-star restaurants and/or helped install tile and bathroom vanities in our new house)

6. Nippers
Odds to win: +500
Odds to finish in the money: +120
Single biggest reason he is where he is: Kevin Jones is not a good fantasy running back. Period.

As I said last year, it is gratifying to see Jon Kitna continue to succeed at this level. It says a lot that guys like Kitna and Kurt Warner and Tom Brady have been able to thrive in this league at the highest levels, while high-profile #1 overall picks like Tim Couch, David Carr and Alex Smith are complete and utter washouts. Even though Tim Couch bagged a Playboy centerfold, so don't waste your tears.

About the only thing that hacked me off just a little bit about Kitna is how he meekly "regretted" what I thought was brillant - him dressing as Lions defensive line Joe Cullen, who drove through a Wendy's drive through naked. His wife, Jennifer, dressed as the Wendy girl (who as you know was modeled after founder Dave Thomas's daughter). Hey, if people cannot take a joke, that's their problem. Do what you want, and let the self-important midgets in the press corps play holier than thou.

By the way, I am not a Halloween guy, and never have been. I don't get into dressing up, and never have. There are two costumes, however, that I think are brillant. One was the kid that dressed up as Manny Ramirez, complete with quasi-pajamas, dreads and doorag. Brillant. The other one, which I haven't seen but wish someone would do it, would be a group dressing up as the cast of the Howard Stern Show. Tell me this wouldn't be absolutely brillant. Howard, Robin, Fred, Gary, (ESPECIALLY Gary), Artie, Sal & Richard....Any three guys and one girl can dress up as the Wizard of Oz. This would not only be conceptually brillant but funny as hell. Plus, EVERY SINGLE ONE of those cast members (except maybe Fred) have features that could be exaggerated for comic effect.

Bob's team is the first that I think if he wanted to, he has enough pieces to make a run. A lot would need to break his way but it's not implausible. Carson Palmer is having a good statistical year and would probably yield a decent running back on the back end (did somone say Clinton Portis?) Kenny Watson might also bring in some good value, as he's cheap and it looks like he's going to be the regular guy there. Greg Jennings and Kevin Curtis are $1 running backs that also might be used as chits to bring in value. As currently constituted Bob's team will be competitive, and will have a very good look at the money, although a title run seems a reach.

5. 99 Yarders
Odds to win: +350
Odds to finish in the money: Even
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Derek Anderson

Yet another example of how, in the NFL, scouting quarterbacks is a total crapshoot. Derek Anderson is another guy who not only was not drafted, but couldn't even beat out Charlie Frye for reps!!! We do not know much of his back story yet, but we do know that he lost a coin flip with Frye for first team snaps in the preseason. We also know that they moved a lot to get the pick that would become Brady Quinn from the Cowboys. And after Frye shit the bed in the first game, and was shipped off to Seattle for gravel, the rumbling began. We need to get Brady in there. Get Brady in there, see what the kid can do.

Only problem was, Derek Anderson was taking full advantage of his one shot at the bigs. We don't know much about his back story, but we can say that he did work his ass off, and continues to do so. The proof is in the numbers he has put up. Through Week 10, only three players IN THE ENTIRE NFL have put up better numbers than Anderson: Tom Brady (duh), Tony Romo (not TONY) and Ben Roethlisberger (and Benny Boy got fully 37.5% of his points over the last two games.) Is that any good. Really, it's the real world equivalent of spending 70 on Kurt Warner in the draft, and then spending 2 on Marc Bulger, to fill your last roster spot. (Uh, not that I would know or anything.)

I know last week Cleveland acquitted themselves as well as you could losing. The Browns got off to a great start but could not keep up with the Steelers. What killed them more than anything else was Romeo Crennel totally screwing up that situation late, burning 2 time outs when they shouldn't have spent any. Someone was giving him bad advice, but he had to know. Tell me Bill Belichick would have done that once in a million years.

Bob is solid at QB and Running Back. Anderson and Manning are, as of right now, two Top fantasy quarterbacks. Marion Barber and Maurice Jones-Drew will get their points. However, his wide receivers are thin, and Larry Johnson has been a washout - like Stephen Jackson, less productive than in the past, and injury prone (indeed, he will miss several more weeks.) That said, Bob has some of the best players to move in trades, so if he wants to climb in this, he certainly can. Or he can keep this team together as is and probably make a decent run.

CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS

4. Coin Tossers
Odds on winning: +125
Odds on finishing in the money: -120
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Marshawn Lynch

As always, I like Craig's team a lot. Every year, Craig is in the chase, and there is little mystery as to why - he drafts well, he makes timely FA moves, he makes shrewd trades, there is a lot to like here.

Every year there is a stud rookie RB that comes down the pike. This year, there are two. Adrian Peterson obviously is getting all the love and the press. But, Marshawn Lynch is having close to as good a year. Like the Bills themselves, you don't quite realize how good he is, or how good they are. Think about it - they utterly dominated Dallas on Throwback Night, and on opening day lost to the Broncos when Kevin Everett was hurt. They are 5-4, with a bullet, but are thatclose to being 7-2. And then next week's game with the Pats really means something. It will mean something now, but maybe perhaps not what it could have met. Anyway, this really is a great story, but one that is getting overshadowed by the Pats and Tony Romo (not TONY) and Cameragate and other stuff.

The other thing interesting about Craig's team is that Willie Parker - the guy that I was absolutely pilloried for trading away, and the guy that a certain owner that shall remain nameless basically reamed me about for 30 minutes straight - only has 71 points in the first 9 weeks. Yes, he is a stud. Yes, he will go high next year. The difference there is that, like Lawrence Maroney, he doesn't get in the end zone enough. In this league, rushing for 100 yards is great; but rushing for 60, scoring a TD from a yard out and having another 30 yards receiving is even better. Indeed, he will go well over 1000 yards, perhaps this week, although with the way the Steeler offense is structured his opportunity to score TDs is, somewhat, limited. Again - great player, he's done more than Maroney this year. But a difference maker? So far, not yet.

This past week Craig tried to trade for Antonio Gates and Edgerrin James, which would have solidified him at two positons, but it has bee tabled for now. That said, the critical factor for Craig at this point is going to be David Garrard. This league's history has shown that even a quarterback racking up pedestrian stats can win you a championship, but can you count on David Garrard for even that? Certainly, the Jags are not the roller-coaster, point-a-minute they were at the end of the 90s and early 00s (pronounced "aughts", BTW) But with his top-notch receiving corps, and depth elsewhere, Craig will be in it right to the end. As always.


3. PGia Panthers
Odds to win: Even
Odds to finish in the money: -150
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Tom Brady. Duh.

So much for the distraction that Bridget Moynihan, Jonathan Brady and Gisele Bundchen were going to be.

Every year in this league, there is one difference maker, a guy that can make a shit team good, a good team a contender and a very good team a champion. This year, Tom Brady is that guy.
At the rate Brady is going, he will shatter - absolutely shatter - all records for points in this league. Currently he is averaging - AVERAGING - over 34 points a week. For any quarterback that is an excellent week; Brady is doing this EVERY SINGLE WEEK. When 100 points a week puts you in the running, Brady can pull down fully one-third of those numbers all by himself.

The thing is that the Patriots, really, have become the next great offensive circus. They are following the tradition of the Sid Luckman Bears, the old AFL teams, the Daryle "Mad Bomber" Lamonica Raiders, Air Coryell, the Redskins and the Fun Bunch, the Montana-to-Rice 49ers, the no-huddle Bills, the Max Q Rams.....and now, these Patriots. But for me, there was always something that separated them from those offensive juggernauts. They didn't seem to quite fit. And then, while engaging in this exercise, I figured it out.

The thing with the Patriots that differentiates them from all these other teams is that their offense is not what I would call cutting edge. Rather, it is a relatively straightforward offense that is designed to react to and take advantage of the other team's flaws. A Wee Willie Keeler approach to offense, if you will. The offense, is also predicated on spreading the wealth. A Marxist offense, if you will. Just like teams could not pitch around Big Papi because of ManRam or Mike Lowell or J.D. Drew, teams can not focus on Randy Moss and ignore Donte Stallworth or Wes Welker or Ben Watson or even Kevin Faulk.

From a competitive/historical standpoint, the team that these Pats resemble most are the old 49ers. Yes, they were fun to watch, and yes they had a cutting edge offense. But the 49ers defense was just as good, and they knew how to win when it mattered most. That is what differentiated those 49ers from other fun-to-watch offensive circuses (circii?) and why they could win - because they were well coached, and the defense was more than an afterthought. (For that matter, so did the Max Q Rams, but the difference there is that Mike Martz was a wealthy man's Norv Turner.) It's not a coincidence that Tom Brady is universally considered to be the new Joe Montana. (In more ways than one, too - Montana was a playa with the ladies as well, the only difference was that he got married three times. Though he did get it right the last time.)

For that matter, Belichick has more in common with Bill Walsh than you might think, not least of all their personalities. Walsh's image in the press was one of someone who was an intellectual, soft-spoken and polite, and I think that was who he was to a point. But, really, I think Walsh was also a bit aloof and cold. And I think that he had his grudges and personality conflicts - ask Steve Mariucci. Not out of meanness, necessarily, but that is just the way he was. He was not a natural politician. As much as anything that is why Walsh, more than anyone else, always reminded me more than a little bit of Charles Schulz. (And yes, I miss them both terribly, thanks for asking) I think Belichick is much the same way. I don't think he is a bad guy, but I do think that he lives and breaths the game and that it is tough to work your way to his inner circle. If you want to get an idea of what drives Belichick, and what makes him who he is, I suggest you read David Halberstam's "The Education of a Coach". Excellent book.

As if Brady wasn't enough, Gianoni made what I thought (and still think) was a GREAT trade, getting Brett Favre, and Ced Benson and Tom Jones. Benson and Jones have underachieved all year, but one of them could pick it up as the year goes on. Favre is Favre, to me his year this year reminds me of Jorge Posada this past year, or Mike Schmidt back in 1986 - basically, an aging superstar who manages to pull together one last great year at the end of his career by using all their experiences to optimize their diminishing skills. Whether it's a more patient eye at the plate, efficency of movement, learning to "manage the game" more - it's all the same, for the most part.

Pete also has the best defensive situation in the league and Nick Folk is doing well also. I said at the time that Pete was the favorite to win; I will back off of that just a bit, especially in light of what has happened since the trade, but still think this is one of the teams to beat.

2. Anthonyapolis Colts
Odds to win: -150
Odds to finish in the money: -200
Single biggest reason he is where he is right now: Tony Romo. Duh.

So much for the distraction that being with Carrie Underwood, Jessica Simpson and Sophia Bush - and gagging away a playoff game against Seattle - were going to be.

Romo is yet another example of how NFL teams cannot scout quarterbacks. (I mean, other than Peyton Manning and Big Ben is there ANY quarterback drafted in the first round that is cashing in their promise, that their fans are not completely pissed off with? Uh....not you, Donovan.) More than any position in any other sport, can't miss guys do, and who-dats and afterthoughts become superstars. This, mind you, on perhaps the most visible and charismatic position in the entire sporting universe.

Romo is a guy who started with the Cowboys, and just hung around and hung around. For four years. Guys started their careers and flamed out in the time that Romo sat. When it was clear that whatever mojo Drew Bledsoe had was gone (which Pats fans already knew in 2001) the Cowboys, desperate to goose their fortunes, gave Romo a shot. And he has not looked back.

I like Romo a lot. Elsewhere on this blog you will see my quick-hit opinion of how he handled himself after the playoff loss this January. He could not have handled it better - he owned it, AND he learned from it, and he is stronger for it. There's a reason that Terrell Owens killed Donovan McNabb and for all practical intents and purposes called Jeff Garcia a faggot, yet he seems to unconditionally respect Romo. There has to be a reason. Part of it may be that Jerry Jones got in his head, or Parcells before; but, believe me, if Owens had a problem with Romo, we'd all know about it. Certainly, we can presume it's not anything that Wade Phillips would have said. Whatever, Dallas to him seems to be like Detroit has been for Rasheed Wallace - an ideal landing spot where he can thrive and be happy. BTW the fans love him too - when we went to the Big E and to Disney World in October, aside from the usual suspects, who was the shirt that I saw people rockin' most often? Tony Romo. And it wasn't close.

Or, maybe its the fact that both Romo and Owens, can be found on the Anthonyapolis Colts.

In the same way that you can always count on a guy having a transcendent year in this league, you can always count on TONY and Phil holding on to their primo fantasy league asset for dear life. Last year it was Chester Taylor; this year it is Tony Romo (not HIMSELF) that they will not sell for gold or silver. Sure, he'll trade the rest of his team - Eli Manning, Stump the Schaub, John Beck - and ask for your best guys in return. But, no, not the cornerstone, the cornerstone is not for sale.

TONY and Phil's receivers are solid as well. Besides Owens, he has Plaxico 757, Larry "Not my 7th grade gym teacher" Fitzgerald and Lee Evans, a sleeping giant. Running back is a bit thin but Willis McGahee was a great get (even though he, like Willie Parker, doesn't score a lot of touchdowns) and Earnest Graham has some promise. Not much has to break TONY's way to win it as is, and if he trades Romo for anything resembling fair value, you can pretty much toss these odds out the window and basically just give TONY the trophy at that point in time. But he might not have to - last year the trade that put TONY and Phil over the top was an under-the-radar deadline deal, Vernon Davis for Lee Evans. Evans did just enough over that last month, to give TONY the win in the closest finish ever. And certainly the same thing can happen this year.

In fact, how hard can it be? All he needs to do is finish in front of....

1. Peteriot Nation
Odds to win: -160
Odds to finish in the money: -210
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Lawrence Maroney

Believe it. Again.

When the trade for Maroney was made last year, Pete said at the time that he was making it as much for future trade value as anything else. That Willie Parker, even though he was better than Maroney, would not yield nearly as much in a possible dump trade in 2007. And even if things fell to shit, Maroney could always be brought back in 2008 for one more run at it. Simply put, there was a flexibility there with Maroney that would not and is not there with Junkyard Willie.

Although Maroney has been, to say the least, a dissapointment, the trade did yield a number of significant, if indirect, benefits. Primary of which was the not inconsequential 4 extra dollars to spend in the draft. This gave Pete the flexibility to go "2" when Wes Welker's name was called out at the tail end of the draft as well as up to "17" on Randy Moss. Both picks have worked out fairly well, at least so far.Most of all, having Maroney enabled the trade with Team Gade for Roethlisberger, Houshmandzadeh and Stephen Jackson. No Maroney, no trade. Now: take a look at Pete's team the last two weeks, look at what the guys Pete traded for did, and look at what the guys Pete traded away did.

It is interesting to note that Team Gade GM Brandon Gade (who was the point person in trade negotiations) said after the deal he was unsure if PGar would give up Maroney. Yet he did, and wound up with him. Which, again, proves the point that I have made countless times in the past: Always shoot the moon, even if you don't hit it you will still fall among the stars, and who knows, you might suprise yourself in the process. This also applies to real life as well: What if Michael J. Fox didn't ask out Tracy Pollan because he didn't think she in a million years would be interested in a short, chain-smoking Canuck who people even back then were deriding as Mickey Rooney's obnoxo neocon grandnephew? What if Barack Obama decided that, at this point in his political career, running for President was out of his reach this time around? What if TONY thought that Katherine Heigl and Carrie Underwood would not give him the time of day because they thought of him as boorish and obnoxious and a wee bit too concerned about beating back Derek and Bob SR? Uh....better not answer that last one. (Though I will say, to his credit, TONY is one of the best guys that I have seen around women. I really mean that - he is comfortable, he is at ease, and he makes them at ease. In any situation. Watch him the next time you're with him, or at the Super Bowl, and you'll see what I mean.)

You could argue that biggest damage that Maroney did to Pete was not when he was hurt and didn't play, but rather when he did play and was started in front of Jamal Lewis when he had a huge week in Week 2, and then in front of DeShawn Foster when he had a huge Week 3. That, and missing out on a huge week by Seattle's defense has hurt Pete badly. But consider this: With Moss and Welker, PGar is uniquely positioned to keep PGia in check. When Brady scores, there's a good chance Moss and Welker score. PGia will gain on the rest of the league, but will only gain on PGar so much. TJ Houshmandzadeh is a solid starter, and was perhaps the unsung chit in the big trade. Either Andre Davis or Andre Johnson should be very good for Pete in Houston and Chambers is a sleeping giant in San Diego.

To be sure, Pete's running back situation is shaky - Stephen Jackson is a week-to-week proposition, at best, Jamal Lewis is feast or famine, either going Al Bundy or dissapearing entirely, and DeShaun Foster only seems to do good when PGar does not start him. But in doing this exercise, I have found that most guys have at least some issues at Running Back, and the team with perhaps the best situation have issues everywhere else.

But still there is a lot to like here - the Seahawks' defense and Dallas Clark were steals - and timing is on Pete's side: like Drew Brees 3 years ago, as of right now it sure seems like he may have acquired Ben Roethlisberger just as he was about to go off as well. And, like 3 years ago, with only a few exceptions his critical pieces have remained healthy.

It is a tight race, and any one small matter can shift the balance of power irrevocably. But right now, all things being equal - and considering that he has left a ton of points on the table - as much as anyone, PGar is the favorite to take his 2nd ring in 4 years.

Sound familiar?

Appalachian State

The big story in sports yesterday, other than Clay Buchholz's no-no, was Appalachian State beating #5 Michigan, in the Big House.

Many sports writers and news organizations are making this out to be the biggest upset in college football history. It is the 1980 USA hockey team, Chaminade, George Mason and Dewey Defeats Truman, all rolled into one. To which I say, in the words of Harvey Keitel in Pulp Fiction, "Let's not go sucking everyone's popsicles just yet."

First of all, App State are not chumps. They won the Division 1-AA championship 2 years in a row. Now people will pooh-pooh that and dismiss it out of hand but I am telling you, it matters. First of all, this is still Division I. Second, is the fact that A-State, if they were to play in 1-A, would probably do fairly well. They probably wouldn't be nationally ranked, but certainly they would probably beat perennial bottom-feeders like Buffalo, UCONN, Army, Florida International and Duke. And they would probably put up respectable fights against middle-of-the-pack teams. If A-State played in 1-A, I think they would probably win 7-8 games and get to a bowl.

To say this is the biggest upset of all time is an affront to A-State. Frankly, they are better than that. They are a good team. They have an excellent shot to repeat at 1-AA champions. If it were one of the 1-A bottom feeders I mentioned, or even someone like Indiana or Stanford going to The Big House and beating Michigan, it would be a much bigger deal. Put yet another way:
if this Michigan team circles the drain and winds up going 6-6, will history view this upset in the same context?

Bottom line: This was a big upset. There is no way the #5 team in the country should be losing to a 1-AA team at home, even if they are the two-time defending champions. But to say it is the greatest upset of all time is not only premature but does not give A-State the respect that it deserves. I see this in the same context as I would see Michigan losing at home to someone like Central Florida or Old Miss, surprising but not shocking.

Back to School

As we prepare for the 14th season of the Ameche-Abitz League, and the 5th straight season with this current league configuration, we begin with the annual pre-season write up.

Back in the 2004 Vegas Odds write-up, in TONY and Phil's section, I did a brief dissertation on "Back to School", the classic 1986 movie with Rodney Dangerfield which was a defining experience of my college career on a number of levels. Although I see now that the movie was basically a mash-up of Caddyshack and Animal House and the de facto sequel to Caddyshack, when I first saw it in the theatres I loved it and thought it was great. Throughout the summer, I would drop lines from the movie repeatedly, to the point where one of my friends said "I know all about it thanks to him!"

And, as I said I saw it the night that my poisonous, toxic roommate situation finally and mercifully came to an ugly end. I said before, my piece of shit roommate's two least favorite people in the world at the time were Gilbert Gottfried and Michael J Fox. Turns out, I was a very close third. Which really got me bent for quite a few years afterward, although I think I can (finally) look at that grouping now and say, that I was in pretty good company. Specifically, you gotta love how Gottfried did Georgie Jessel and Paul Lynde imitations on the Stern show. Even though nobody under 60 knows who Jessel is, and Lynde, although a bastard when drunk (which was 80% of the time) was freaking hysterical. I see his clips on YouTube, and I have never been as surprised to see how a lot of his work stands up.

Although none of this has anything whatsoever to do with the 2007 fantasy league season, it does have everything to do with this write-up. I will be using quotes from the movie as jumping-off points to frame the main issues of the 2007 NFL and Ameche/Abitz League seasons, much as Bill Simmons used Anchorman as a jumping-off point for one of his columns. And I promise, that I will not, as Nick Bakay put it, make this 75,000 words about me. Anyway, here we go:



1. "I'm looking for the fountain of middle age"

This goes to Jamal Lewis, who parlayed being released by the Ravens as a procedural move to a new, lucrative contract as the go-to back for the Cleveland Browns. Although he missed the 2001 season with a torn ACL, he bounced back in 2002 and in 2003 ran for over 2000 yards. After that, he has been the titular go-to back in Baltimore, although his production has been dissapointing over the years.

Now in Cleveland, he has his last, best chance, perhaps, to jump-start his career. There is no obvious platoon partner there, the quarterback position is in a state of flux and the receivers are not exactly All-World. So there is a real opportunity here for Lewis to have one last big year.

This is also the last, best chance for Romeo Crennel to make hay as the Browns coach. Closing in on 60, this will be his 3rd season with the Browns and they have made very little progress. He will probably get a pass this season, but next season, certainly, he will be expected to make a run. Ironically, his career path in Cleveland mirrors Bill Belichick's, in that Belichick's first 3 seasons in Cleveland were largely forgettable before finally breaking through in 1994 with an 11-5 record and playoff win.

I don't think Lewis has been the same since he lost much of the 2005 pre-season to being in jail, and am concerned about him running behind that line, but it will be interesting to see if Lewis can have a statistically strong year.

2. "Haven't you ever messed up?"
"No."

Chad's retort to Valerie Desmond at the "Party of the Year" which turned out to be a lame-fest, goes to TONY and Phil's (and specifically TONY's) adamant refusal to trade Chester Taylor last year. This quote is relevant on a number of levels.

TONY's m.o. in these leagues through the years has been never to trade his best undervalued players under any set of circumstances. If you attempted to get JJ Putz from him in the American League last year, you know this first hand. However, he would be willing to move more questionable guys, like Huston Street and Octavio Dotel, and would ask you for your best guys.

The same thing happened last year with Chester Taylor. Arguably, Taylor, at $2, was the best guy in the league. TONY adamantly refused to trade him. I need to get the moon and the stars for Taylor, and even that might not be enough. So, TONY eschewed the big bang that Taylor would provide, instead making lower-level deals (most notably Lee Evans for Vernon Davis) - and wound up winning it all anyway, by the narrowest margin in league history (15 points).

As for Taylor, the Vikings drafted Adrian Peterson in the first round at #7 overall. I would expect that Taylor would still have some value, but he almost certainly will not be the $70 stud that he was last year. And certainly, his trade value will not be what it would have been last year. The bottom line is that it clearly worked out not trading him, but the line between this being a disaster and working out is very thin.

3. "A, B, C.....You're in the top 3, what more do you want?"

To Rex Grossman, Bruce and Walt's would-be cornerstone at QB. This is the guy who last year was to Bruce and Walt what Chet Taylor was to TONY and Phil, but not as good.

While it is true that Rex Grossman got the Bears to a Super Bowl, the fact is that Grossman has been afforded as little respect for a Super Bowl QB as David Woodley. All the guys on the Bears are saying and doing the right things. Lovie Smith has gone out there and stood behind his guy. But, really, what other options do the Bears have? Brian Griese? Chris Leak? Sid Luckman? The fact is this: the Bears, since Sid Luckman, have NEVER had a cutting-edge QB. They have always had these caretaker guys who, at best, were guys that were servicable. Jim McMahon was a perfect example. Jim Harbaugh was another. These are not all-timer guys, these are guys that will lead you into battle and do what they have to do to win.

Obviously Grossman helped get the Bears to a Super Bowl so by definition he cannot be THAT bad - how many Super Bowls did Kordell get the Steelers to? But, it seems that the ceiling for this guy is only going to be so high.


4. "I'm not making it here. I don't fit in. I've got one friend. Derek. And he has no friends."

Don't worry, Derek, this is not for you, we all love you man.

Rather, this is for the sad sack Arizona Cardinals, a team that has a grand total of one playoff win in most of our lifetimes, a team who has no national following whatsoever, whose highlight last year was blowing a 23-3 lead to the Bears and Denny Green melting down about how the Bears are who he thought they were. Whatever the hell that means. (Although, juxtaposed alongside John L. Smith's meltdown, it does make for some good Net viewing.)

Every year, it seems, the Cardinals are everyone's pick to suprise, to have a big year. And everyone makes it like they have this special inside scoop: "No, THIS year is the Arizona Cardinals year!" Really, this is nothing new. They ALWAYS have some flashy new wrinkle that makes people think that, maybe, just maybe THIS is the year.

As long as the Ameche League has existed, this has been the case. Think about it. First it was Buddy Ryan revamping the defense. Then it was Rose Bowl hero Jake the Snake Plummer riding to the rescue. Then it was Cuba Gooding winning an Oscar playing, of all things, a Cardinals wideout. Then it was Denny Green and Larry Fitzgerald. Then it was the beautiful new stadium with the retractable field. Then it was Kurt Warner, then it was Matt Leinart. No, no, no, no, no, no and.....well, one playoff win, that matters, I guess.

This year is no different. Now, THIS is going to be the year. Really, for sure. Leinart has a year under his belt. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are the best 1-2 receivers not named TJ and Ocho Cinco. Edgerrin has a year under his belt with the Cards and he's healthy and he's hungry. And they have two much sought-after coaches, Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm, who were an integral part of the Steelers Super Bowl win. So, everyone is back on the bandwagon, and all these know-nothings are telling us Arizona is going to be the big suprise team. Again.

Only one question: Who's on the offensive and defensive lines. Prediction: 5-11, and we'll do this again in '08.

5. "Mellon is throwing the greatest party of all time! The whole world is there!! It is the greatest thing that happened to me in my entire life!!!"

The beer-soaked ravings of a student outside of Mellon's dorm during the "Party of the century", goes to Randy Moss going to the Patriots. Not since his rookie year in 1998 has dude had as good a look to go to a Super Bowl. Not ever in his career has he been surrounded by the talent and leadership that he has been around.

As Corey Dillon did three years ago, Randy Moss comes to Foxboro at a downturn in his career, for a shot at redeeming his career and re-establishing his Hall of Fame bona fides. So far, Moss has done and said all of the right things. He restructured his contract to a one year deal with a minimum cap hit. There is language that, if it didn't work out, the Patriots could pretty much cut bait at any time with a minimum cap impact.

What Moss did in the end in Minnesota and Oakland is simply not going to fly here. Him taking plays off and not toeing the line is not going to fly. Going to the press to bitch about not getting the ball is not going to fly. To his credit, he knows this is his last, best chance to establish himself as an all-timer and maximize his earning potential, and he is going to do what he can to make it work.

Personally, I thought even before the Pats got Moss that they were addressing the position. They traded for Wes Welker, and they tabbed Kelley Washington from the Bengals. And Reche Caldwell and Jabaar Gaffney seemed to be servicable, decent receivers. When they signed Donte Stallworth, I said, "We're done." This was the game breaker, the ace that every team needs. This was the guy they didn't have all last year. This is a Super Bowl receiving corps, purchased at a Target price. Well done, lads.

Then they go and get Randy Moss, and much like Blake Lewis channeling Robin Thicke, it makes a good thing better. This, I can guarantee you, will not be a Terrell Owens situation. Moss has way too much riding on this. Besides, the Patriots won't let it happen.

This also shows why the Patriots are going to be a dominant team in the NFL for years and years to come. They have the game figured out. They pick the core guys and pay them well. There is also a priority on the offensive and defensive line. Everything else is interchangable parts. Corey Dillon nearing the end of the line, plug in Lawrence Maroney. Lawyer Molloy asking for too much jack, develop Asante Samuel. Because the team is so good, and is run so well, it enables the Pats to get guys like Dillon and Moss for a "winner's discount."

Nor will the Pats blow the cap to try to win now. That is the other secret. For all the Colts did to win last year, their cap situation is a pretty tough one. Already they have had to let a lot of key guys go on offense, and are going to have more difficulties next year. This follows other teams whose cap situations in the AFC have imploded, specifically the Ravens and the Titans. The Titans, specifically are still digging their way out of it.

Yes, the Pats look like the favorite to win the AFC again this year. Then again, every year everyone says the Yankees are going to win, and look what happens there. We'll see in January, I guess. But, if the Patriots weren't in the mix, I'd be shocked.

6. "I didn't (fail you). You failed me, Thornton."

To Michael Vick. Enough said.

7. "Ow! I have got a really bad cramp. I have had a really bad cramp all week!"
"Probably menstrual."

To Eli Manning, much maligned Giants QB and Tiki Barber target. I also think this demonstrates how the Chargers bucked conventional wisdom, traded the #1 overall pick not once but TWICE, and made out both times.

First the trade for Michael Vick. Vick for LT would have been a heist and a half. But then they got Drew Brees in the second round on top of it! LT has been solid right out of the box, although Brees was a dog....until the Chargers parlayed Eli Manning into Phillip Rivers, which made Brees into a machine that just could not be stopped. Oh, and getting Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding doesn't suck either. Say what you want about AJ Smith and his misanthropic tendencies, but the guy does know personnel. John Butler taught him well. (Oh, and I like the new white helmets, but....could you guys PLEASE switch to the powder blues full time? And also add uni numbers on the helmets? Paul Lukas and I thank you in advance!)

As far as Eli, I think the fact that his mates are not charging to his defense tells you everything you need to know. Put another way: What if Corey Dillon took shots at Tom Brady? How would his teammates, his coach react? I think Eli is getting kind of a bum rap, and to his credit I don't think he is wilting under the bright klieg lights, like Ed Whitson did. But I do think he is going to need a fresh start somewhere to reach his potential. Where, I have no freaking idea. Maybe San Francisco? You gotta love how everyone is shocked that Alex Smith, is not exactly Tony "Big Chicklets" Robbins with his hands.

8. "Hey, are you interested in Valerie Desmond? She's with me!"

First a word about the whole Jason-Valerie-Billy Zabka triangle. To me, this is the one part of the movie that just didn't work, and that has not withstood the test of time.

Aside from the fact that in the real world a girl like Valerie (played by Terri Farrell, apparently because Brooke Shields cost too much money) would never in 10,000 years be interested in a guy like Jason (Keith Gordon, who like Ron Howard has focused on a directing career, albeit without much to show for it at this point), the whole thing was just not well written. There were some things that you saw that hinted at Valerie having feelings toward Jason, but it was pretty much just Jason being a puppy dog, Valerie being flattered and them making out. And....cut. Clearly, the whole subplot was inserted as an afterthought and it comes across that way.

The intentional comedy here was Billy Zabka, the bleached-blond surfer dude/villian who was also Ralph Macchio's doppleganger in "The Karate Kid" (yet another wussified wanna-be who lusts after a girl out of his league). What kills me here is that, supposedly, he is interested in Val and wants to get with her, but they show him at the diner at a table with three pretty girls, neither of which is Val Desmond. But, then when he catches Val making out with Jason, he looks shocked. Not, oh my God my dreams are shattered shocked, but just stunned. Like, how did this cat get one over on me? Not that I would have wanted him to get the girl in this movie, but it just didn't work on any level.

This goes to Derek and Rob, my namesake, owners of the DA Dolphins and perennial title contenders, who are going in with one of the best, if not the best, teams this year. At Quarterback, he has Marc Bulger and Damon Huard, both the Missouri quarterbacks. Bulger is 50 and, if he stays upright, well worth it. Baby Huard is a buck and was just named starter. Oh, and he still has Brett Favre. As Jim Rome would say, is that any good?

At RB I like Jerrious Norwood a lot, for $3 I think he is poised to have a big year. Thomas Jones will also do quite well for the Jets, I think. Anquan Boldin is done but Derek pulled the best FA pickup last year in Marques Colston - for a buck!!! He also has Bernard Berrian, Rex Grossman's go to receiver, for what that's worth. The icing? How about Donte Stallworth for 2 and Kellen Winslow for 1, even though he has no one to throw to him in Cleveland.

They does have some jack tied up - Bulger is 50, Tom Jones may or may not be worth keeping at 35, depending on how you see it - but, there is solid talent here and a lot to like.


9. "I'll tell you what. Maybe, if you get a note from each and every one of these people saying that it was alright, we would reconsider. But, until that day, take a hike you elitist fraternity scumbag!"

The most underrated and enduring line in the movie goes to Maurice Jones-Drew, who along with Marques Colston proved to be the biggest suprise and difference-maker among rookies last year.

Lost amongst the shuffle of higher profile guys like Joseph Addai and the infamous Lawrence Maroney (more about that in a few minutes), Jones-Drew nonetheless had a stellar season for the Jaguars, scoring 16 touchdowns and putting Bob JR in title contention right until the bitter end. What he can do as an encore is a question mark at this point but, hey, for $11, it's worth finding out, right?

As far as this line, as I said earlier I saw this movie 21 years ago under very stressful circumstances. So when I went with TONY to the old Showcase Cinemas in Orange to see this, I was wound pretty tight. And I remember, vividly, letting out a big whoop when Robert Downey JR let loose this line on Billy Zabka. Mostly to let off steam, because as you know having your personal property attacked by some fat, tree-burning Gilbert Gottfried-hating piece of shit scumbag while Benny Boy Mickey Mouse is stabbing you in the back at the same time, is not something I would consider a barrel of monkeys (or, as Inspector Clouseau would say, a barrel of minkeys.) Anyway, the line was not something featured in the trailers, and was not a line that was discussed a lot when discussing this movie, but I always remembered it and always enjoyed it.

For that matter, Downey was quasi-enjoyable in this movie, as a guy who on the surface eschewed the "beautiful people" even though you knew that, if he could be a part of their world, he would be in an instant. Incidentially, between rehab stints and jail sentences he would also have a prominent supporting role in Oliver Stone's "Natural Born Killers" as an Australian tabloid TV host. This movie also featured our boy Rodney in a rare dramatic role as Juliette Lewis's abusive father, although as in this movie their characters didn't really interact. Except, of course, for Dangerfield asking Downey if he was trying to get back at his parents for his lame haircut. Good times.

10. "I have only one question for you, Mr. Mellon.....in 27 parts."

With protected 7 fast approaching, it's time for us to check in on the aftermath of the Willie Parker for Lawrence Maroney and $4 and to see if I will, finally, admit what everyone (or at least TONY and Walt) say - that the trade was the worst of all time, that I am an idiot and that I don't get it, even after winning a ring I still don't get it.

Nope.

I still like this trade. If I didn't like it, or I thought it was a disaster, I'd be the first to say it. But I still think this trade is going to work out.

I will say Parker is a solid talent. As of this very moment, I don't think there is anyone who could reasonably say that they would rather have Lawrence Maroney than Willie Parker, all things being equal. To get Parker for $6 is a steal.

However, all is not equal here. He is in his last year. Maroney is in his second year. To that, consider this: By the time I moved Parker, I had already recast my team for this day. I already had Phillip Rivers, Alex Smith, Frank Gore and Parker, all of whom were in their last year. Other than Jamal Lewis, who I considered to be a decent but not game-changing keeper, and Jay Cutler, who at that point in time was not yet the starting QB, I didn't really have anyone on my team with more than a year left that I was really comfortable with that I thought I could trust.

This is when I made the call on Maroney. Originally, Craig wanted a bigger deal that involved Frank Gore. I was not interested in that, but I did like Maroney. Being a Patriot fan and season ticket holder, I saw him run. I saw how he fit in with the Patriots and what they did. I saw how he provided a level of explosiveness, and how he caught passes, which he NEVER did when he was in school at Minnesota. He was a work in process, to be sure, but I liked the upside, and knew that Corey Dillon would not be standing in his way for long. So, swallowing hard, I took the leap of faith.

And, I'm glad I did. The fact he did nothing in the post-season doesn't bother me - nobody ran on the Colts last year in the post-season. The fact that he has been nagged by shoulder injuries is of some concern, but it's not his knees and, besides, Emmitt Smith once ran for 133 yards in a division-clincher against the Giants with his arm literally in a sling under his jersey.

As far as Parker looking better than Maroney now, does anyone remember 2002 when Kurt Warner started the season as the best guy on the planet and wound up basically carrying Marc Bulger's bags? How many times have we all been absolutely certain that someone was going to be The Man, and then it turned out not to be? Every year it happens, and it will certainly happen again this year.

And again, if Maroney does have a strong first half and does give me a shot, he CAN be moved for what I need at that time. Parker would certainly have value, but not in a dump trade this year.

The one regret I do have is that I re-constructed my trades, and figured that, had I played it my trades a little differently, I probably could have ended up with Parker on my team instead of Jamal Lewis, and everything else as is. But as Greg once said, rebuilding is about taking chances. I said that on Draft Day 2007, I would be happy with this trade and that the extra year was worth it

Anyway, that's it. I think most of you guys get this, and to those of you that don't, there's nothing else I can say. BTW to anyone who thinks that what I did affected the standings, I would very politely say, take a look at your own team first.

11. "Let me ask you something, man....Do you make up this Bullshit as you go along, or do you actually read this stuff?"

You know, as much as I would like to pin this on TONY or Derek or the Chapin Gang, I'm leaving it alone. Instead, I will pin this on the Chargers, who are now trying to convince us that Norv Turner - Norv Turner!!!! - is the right guy to lead them to the promised land.

Aside from the Giants, the Chargers are a dysfunctional mess. As I said earlier, I think a lot of this has to do with AJ Smith, the GM. He and Marty never saw eye-to-eye and never established a good working relationship. When the Chargers gave away the playoff game against New England (and, make no mistake, they GAVE that game away), Schottenheimer was finished. Even though he went 14-2 in the regular season and the players all loved him, he was finished. The problem was that they let him hang on and hang on until most of the quality assistant coaches - AND BOTH OF THEIR COORDINATORS - had left for head coaching jobs. True, Wade Phillips is a journeyman coach at best, but he would have provided continuty and a steady hand for a few years. Cam Cameron had some good upside but again I think the strength there was continuty.

To a point I see them working, in that Norv Turner can help Phillip Rivers's continuing development, but that the Chargers would only get Turner as a head coach. Even this may be stretching things a bit - in his prior head coaching stints in Washington and Oakland, he did very little to develop his quarterbacks and offensive talent. As a head coach, he is a great offensive coordinator.

The one silver lining is that the Chargers managed to land Ron Rivera from the Bears, as a linebackers coach. This, I think, was a masterstroke. Rivera was the D-coordinator for the Bears and, for much of the postseason, one of THE hot prospects for getting a head coaching gig. For some reason, however, it went sour for him in Chicago and he wound up leaving. Wisely, the Chargers picked him up, essentially putting him on retainer so that, when Turner doesn't pan out and they wind up squandering LT's prime, Rivera can step in as head coach and, hopefully, right the ship, squeeze one more good year out of LT and get the Chargers into the Super Bowl for the second time.

Or, they might not.


Anyway, that's it for now. More commentary and prose throughout the season, keep it here.

Rookie Fantasy Football Sneak Preview

Well, we have had a week to digest the results of the NFL Draft. Although a disproportionate amount of the focus was placed on the skill players and glory boys like Brady Quinn, the fact is that, for the fantasy leagues, it's these guys who are going to be important to us.

As such, following is a list of the critical players tabbed, and where they went and how much I expect them to go for in the upcoming Ameche League draft:

1. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders, QB
This guy is going to be the starter, full-time, by Halloween. Write this down. What, you think Josh McCown is going to stand in his way?

Historically, in our league quarterbacks not only do not do well in their first year, but throughout their initial contract. There are some notable exceptions - Peyton Manning was an out-and-out stud in Season 2, and Vince Young turned in a decent year last year. Even so, the norm is guys like Alex Smith, who in his last year may be a middle-of-the-pack guy, or guys like Drew Brees or Phillip Rivers, who are drafted, thrown back and then re-drafted and become solid values.

The cupboard is pretty bare for the Raiders receiver-wise so it is not likely that Russell will have much of an impact this year. Best bet is that he probably goes for the highest of any rookie QB, will be kept primarily as a bench guy and will show just enough by the end of this year to warrant his being kept for next year.

Likely range: 20-25
Best guess: 23

2. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
Even more so than Quarterbacks, wideouts tend to be non-entities through their first year. However, in Johnson we may have the exception that proves the rule.

It says something that, even though Matt Millen has been horrible for the Lions, and this is the 4th time in 5 years he has taken a Wideout high, that pretty much no one gave him shit for it. This was the right call. Whether or not this guy turns into Terrell Owens without the baggage and poor attitude remains to be seen; but certainly he was the best wide receiver in a loaded WR draft.

I still say, you don't win with receivers in the real world; indeed, the Patriots damn near got to the Super Bowl with Rick Dees and his Cast of Idiots at wideout. In fantasy, I still think running backs are critical; but you do need to have respect for the Receiver position and you do still need to get good ones you can count on, even though, as I said before, if fantasy football was The Sopranos, Tony Soprano is a running back and Paulie Walnuts and Chris Moltisanti are the wideouts - prominent one week, invisible the next.

That said, Johnson is in an excellent position. For all his quirks, Mike Martz is an excellent offensive coach and he is building what will shortly be a very dangerous offense. The concern I have is not so much who is getting him the ball, but that the Lions don't have a good running game, which will force the Lions to rely more on the passing game, and will force Johnson to carry more of his share of the load. I think he's up to it, but it is of some concern to me.

The only receiver that we have had that was productive right out of the box was Randy Moss. I don't think Johnson will have a Moss '98 kind of year, but I think he will do reasonably well and probably will be kept into '08.

Likely range:15-20
Best guess: 18


7. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings

This was a bit of a suprise pick to me. The Vikings have a damn good RB in Chester Taylor, so I am suprised they burned a high pick on Peterson, even though he seemed to have the best credentials of any running back.

Two issues here. One is his durability - a lot of people are worried about his collarbone. The second, and bigger, issue is what will his role be? Teams that split carries last year cluster you-know-whatted a lot of teams last year, and many weeks it was hard to figure out which guy was going to get most of the work. With this pick, Minnesota has turned into this kind of situation. I think in the real world it is probably a good idea. Like in baseball where everyone now follows the LaRussa model of having that one guy at the back of the bullpen to close games, even if that guy sucks, football just followed the model where every team had that one guy who got all the carries and all the workload, even if he sucked. Splitting the carries among two backs who are both equally good makes offenses that much more effective and dangerous, even though it pretty much sucks for fantasy.

My guess is that, like Joseph Addai and Laurence Maroney, Peterson gradually is worked into the Vikings' offense. Then, in '08 Taylor will be moved elsewhere and Peterson can be the lead dog. For '07, however, the guy who takes Chester Taylor should also be taking A-Pete.

Likely range: 20-25
Best guess: 25

9. Ted Ginn, JR, WR, Miami

I HATE this pick and I love this pick. I hate it because Miami went for this guy instead of going for Brady Quinn, who they desperately needed. However, I love it, because that means that Miami is, again, not going to be a threat for the Patriots for a few years. You gotta love it that he was lauded for his kick returning ability. Uh, didn't you have Wes Welker and moved him for a #2?

Ginn did well at Ohio State but he's hurt, and I don't like it that he hurt himself celebrating. Not that him being healthy would have made the difference in the title game. But, it certainly didn't help.

He seems to be a decent player but again he is coming off the injury, Miami's ground game is not all that and whomever they bring in is going to be limited. What, Trent Green is going to make all the difference? At least Green, having been in other places before, should be a quick study with this offense, such as it is. But I cannot see Ginn being anything more than an emergency reserve this year. Put another way online, I read that his upside is being a Desmond Howard: excellent returner, so-so receiver.

Likely range: 5-10
Best guess: 7

12. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills

Here is another guy who has a shot to get a lot of carries right off the top. In some ways, he is in a better position than Adrian Peterson, as he only has Anthony Thomas to beat out for carries.

That said, this is probably going to be a split role, at least early in the season, although I can see him being more dominant and prominent as the year goes on. He doesn't have the name recognition of A-Pete and he is going to be leaned on a lot more than A-Pete will, but if he handles it he can do very well.

Likely range: 20-25
Best guess: 25

22. Brady Quinn, QB, Browns

And here is the Glory Boy of the draft, who wound up where a lot of people had him going, albeit not exactly as expected.

Like JaMarcus Russell, I think Quinn is going to be starting by the end of the season, although perhaps not as soon as Russell. Clearly, he is the Browns' best hope, and it defintely behooves the Browns to get him in there as soon as they can get him in there.

That said, this is probably Romeo Crennel's last chance to make something of this team, and although I don't think it's all him that the Browns have floundered much of these last two years, he is going to be the one on the spot. Obviously the Browns are going to start the season with Charlie Frye, and if Crennel remains the coach it will probably be with Frye at quarterback. Either way, I would not expect a lot out of Quinn this season. Most likely he will be a "development" pick, and whatever you get this year is a bonus.

Likely range: 10-15
Best guess: 15

23. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City

I don't know a lot about this guy but know that the Chiefs don't have a lot of overly strong receivers (Eddie Kennison?) and will have someone new throwing the ball this year full-time (probably Damon "Baby" Huard). This guy could be someone special for the Chefs, but this year will probably put in a typical rookie receiver season. I don't expect much of an impact.

Likely range: 5-10
Best guess: 5

32. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis

Said to fill the role of Brandon Stokley, i.e., the third or fourth option on the field. Stokley had a phenominal season in '04 (as I know first hand) and if that is your upside, that is a pretty good upside, indeed.

You won't get what Stokely did in '04 this year from Gonzalez, but he will be broken in slowly and he has enough talent around him that he'll be able to grow into his role without the burden of being a focal point, like a Calvin Johnson. Whether or not he matures into a great one remains to be seen, but if there is a receiver in this draft that can put up Top 25 receiver numbers this year, this is the guy.

Likely range: 10-15
Best guess: 11

40. John Beck, QB, Dolphins

In school, one of our professors like to tell us about how one CFO he knew back in the day always targeted B students. A students, aside from being prohibitively expensive and in demand, usually were more difficult to mold. C students, on the other hand, may not have had the talent and determination. But in B students, you had students that clearly tried hard, and were most likely very eager to prove themselves at least the equal of the A students. (I would also make the argument that they probably had a hell of a lot more fun during school than the A students as well.)

John Beck, I think, was a B student.

As much as I didn't like the Dolphins passing on Brady Quinn, I always am intrigued by seeing teams taking QBs outside of the first round. Beck is a guy I don't know a lot about, but he's another BYU guy and will get an opportunity to mature behind the scenes, and perhaps have Trent Green as a mentor. You could do worse.

This could go either way. Drew Brees is a great example of a QB taken in the upper second round, after the glory boys, who has done extrodinarily well. Boomer Esiason also went in the second round (although he was the first QB taken). There have been some washouts - Charlie Batch and Charlie Frye went high but their ceilings were, and are low - but, as Tom Bergeron used to say on Hollywood Squares, "this might work out." Just don't expect anything this year.

Likely range: 1-5
Best guess: 3