Rookie Fantasy Football Sneak Preview

Well, we have had a week to digest the results of the NFL Draft. Although a disproportionate amount of the focus was placed on the skill players and glory boys like Brady Quinn, the fact is that, for the fantasy leagues, it's these guys who are going to be important to us.

As such, following is a list of the critical players tabbed, and where they went and how much I expect them to go for in the upcoming Ameche League draft:

1. JaMarcus Russell, Raiders, QB
This guy is going to be the starter, full-time, by Halloween. Write this down. What, you think Josh McCown is going to stand in his way?

Historically, in our league quarterbacks not only do not do well in their first year, but throughout their initial contract. There are some notable exceptions - Peyton Manning was an out-and-out stud in Season 2, and Vince Young turned in a decent year last year. Even so, the norm is guys like Alex Smith, who in his last year may be a middle-of-the-pack guy, or guys like Drew Brees or Phillip Rivers, who are drafted, thrown back and then re-drafted and become solid values.

The cupboard is pretty bare for the Raiders receiver-wise so it is not likely that Russell will have much of an impact this year. Best bet is that he probably goes for the highest of any rookie QB, will be kept primarily as a bench guy and will show just enough by the end of this year to warrant his being kept for next year.

Likely range: 20-25
Best guess: 23

2. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
Even more so than Quarterbacks, wideouts tend to be non-entities through their first year. However, in Johnson we may have the exception that proves the rule.

It says something that, even though Matt Millen has been horrible for the Lions, and this is the 4th time in 5 years he has taken a Wideout high, that pretty much no one gave him shit for it. This was the right call. Whether or not this guy turns into Terrell Owens without the baggage and poor attitude remains to be seen; but certainly he was the best wide receiver in a loaded WR draft.

I still say, you don't win with receivers in the real world; indeed, the Patriots damn near got to the Super Bowl with Rick Dees and his Cast of Idiots at wideout. In fantasy, I still think running backs are critical; but you do need to have respect for the Receiver position and you do still need to get good ones you can count on, even though, as I said before, if fantasy football was The Sopranos, Tony Soprano is a running back and Paulie Walnuts and Chris Moltisanti are the wideouts - prominent one week, invisible the next.

That said, Johnson is in an excellent position. For all his quirks, Mike Martz is an excellent offensive coach and he is building what will shortly be a very dangerous offense. The concern I have is not so much who is getting him the ball, but that the Lions don't have a good running game, which will force the Lions to rely more on the passing game, and will force Johnson to carry more of his share of the load. I think he's up to it, but it is of some concern to me.

The only receiver that we have had that was productive right out of the box was Randy Moss. I don't think Johnson will have a Moss '98 kind of year, but I think he will do reasonably well and probably will be kept into '08.

Likely range:15-20
Best guess: 18


7. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings

This was a bit of a suprise pick to me. The Vikings have a damn good RB in Chester Taylor, so I am suprised they burned a high pick on Peterson, even though he seemed to have the best credentials of any running back.

Two issues here. One is his durability - a lot of people are worried about his collarbone. The second, and bigger, issue is what will his role be? Teams that split carries last year cluster you-know-whatted a lot of teams last year, and many weeks it was hard to figure out which guy was going to get most of the work. With this pick, Minnesota has turned into this kind of situation. I think in the real world it is probably a good idea. Like in baseball where everyone now follows the LaRussa model of having that one guy at the back of the bullpen to close games, even if that guy sucks, football just followed the model where every team had that one guy who got all the carries and all the workload, even if he sucked. Splitting the carries among two backs who are both equally good makes offenses that much more effective and dangerous, even though it pretty much sucks for fantasy.

My guess is that, like Joseph Addai and Laurence Maroney, Peterson gradually is worked into the Vikings' offense. Then, in '08 Taylor will be moved elsewhere and Peterson can be the lead dog. For '07, however, the guy who takes Chester Taylor should also be taking A-Pete.

Likely range: 20-25
Best guess: 25

9. Ted Ginn, JR, WR, Miami

I HATE this pick and I love this pick. I hate it because Miami went for this guy instead of going for Brady Quinn, who they desperately needed. However, I love it, because that means that Miami is, again, not going to be a threat for the Patriots for a few years. You gotta love it that he was lauded for his kick returning ability. Uh, didn't you have Wes Welker and moved him for a #2?

Ginn did well at Ohio State but he's hurt, and I don't like it that he hurt himself celebrating. Not that him being healthy would have made the difference in the title game. But, it certainly didn't help.

He seems to be a decent player but again he is coming off the injury, Miami's ground game is not all that and whomever they bring in is going to be limited. What, Trent Green is going to make all the difference? At least Green, having been in other places before, should be a quick study with this offense, such as it is. But I cannot see Ginn being anything more than an emergency reserve this year. Put another way online, I read that his upside is being a Desmond Howard: excellent returner, so-so receiver.

Likely range: 5-10
Best guess: 7

12. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills

Here is another guy who has a shot to get a lot of carries right off the top. In some ways, he is in a better position than Adrian Peterson, as he only has Anthony Thomas to beat out for carries.

That said, this is probably going to be a split role, at least early in the season, although I can see him being more dominant and prominent as the year goes on. He doesn't have the name recognition of A-Pete and he is going to be leaned on a lot more than A-Pete will, but if he handles it he can do very well.

Likely range: 20-25
Best guess: 25

22. Brady Quinn, QB, Browns

And here is the Glory Boy of the draft, who wound up where a lot of people had him going, albeit not exactly as expected.

Like JaMarcus Russell, I think Quinn is going to be starting by the end of the season, although perhaps not as soon as Russell. Clearly, he is the Browns' best hope, and it defintely behooves the Browns to get him in there as soon as they can get him in there.

That said, this is probably Romeo Crennel's last chance to make something of this team, and although I don't think it's all him that the Browns have floundered much of these last two years, he is going to be the one on the spot. Obviously the Browns are going to start the season with Charlie Frye, and if Crennel remains the coach it will probably be with Frye at quarterback. Either way, I would not expect a lot out of Quinn this season. Most likely he will be a "development" pick, and whatever you get this year is a bonus.

Likely range: 10-15
Best guess: 15

23. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City

I don't know a lot about this guy but know that the Chiefs don't have a lot of overly strong receivers (Eddie Kennison?) and will have someone new throwing the ball this year full-time (probably Damon "Baby" Huard). This guy could be someone special for the Chefs, but this year will probably put in a typical rookie receiver season. I don't expect much of an impact.

Likely range: 5-10
Best guess: 5

32. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis

Said to fill the role of Brandon Stokley, i.e., the third or fourth option on the field. Stokley had a phenominal season in '04 (as I know first hand) and if that is your upside, that is a pretty good upside, indeed.

You won't get what Stokely did in '04 this year from Gonzalez, but he will be broken in slowly and he has enough talent around him that he'll be able to grow into his role without the burden of being a focal point, like a Calvin Johnson. Whether or not he matures into a great one remains to be seen, but if there is a receiver in this draft that can put up Top 25 receiver numbers this year, this is the guy.

Likely range: 10-15
Best guess: 11

40. John Beck, QB, Dolphins

In school, one of our professors like to tell us about how one CFO he knew back in the day always targeted B students. A students, aside from being prohibitively expensive and in demand, usually were more difficult to mold. C students, on the other hand, may not have had the talent and determination. But in B students, you had students that clearly tried hard, and were most likely very eager to prove themselves at least the equal of the A students. (I would also make the argument that they probably had a hell of a lot more fun during school than the A students as well.)

John Beck, I think, was a B student.

As much as I didn't like the Dolphins passing on Brady Quinn, I always am intrigued by seeing teams taking QBs outside of the first round. Beck is a guy I don't know a lot about, but he's another BYU guy and will get an opportunity to mature behind the scenes, and perhaps have Trent Green as a mentor. You could do worse.

This could go either way. Drew Brees is a great example of a QB taken in the upper second round, after the glory boys, who has done extrodinarily well. Boomer Esiason also went in the second round (although he was the first QB taken). There have been some washouts - Charlie Batch and Charlie Frye went high but their ceilings were, and are low - but, as Tom Bergeron used to say on Hollywood Squares, "this might work out." Just don't expect anything this year.

Likely range: 1-5
Best guess: 3