Saturday, August 25, 2007

Back to School

As we prepare for the 14th season of the Ameche-Abitz League, and the 5th straight season with this current league configuration, we begin with the annual pre-season write up.

Back in the 2004 Vegas Odds write-up, in TONY and Phil's section, I did a brief dissertation on "Back to School", the classic 1986 movie with Rodney Dangerfield which was a defining experience of my college career on a number of levels. Although I see now that the movie was basically a mash-up of Caddyshack and Animal House and the de facto sequel to Caddyshack, when I first saw it in the theatres I loved it and thought it was great. Throughout the summer, I would drop lines from the movie repeatedly, to the point where one of my friends said "I know all about it thanks to him!"

And, as I said I saw it the night that my poisonous, toxic roommate situation finally and mercifully came to an ugly end. I said before, my piece of shit roommate's two least favorite people in the world at the time were Gilbert Gottfried and Michael J Fox. Turns out, I was a very close third. Which really got me bent for quite a few years afterward, although I think I can (finally) look at that grouping now and say, that I was in pretty good company. Specifically, you gotta love how Gottfried did Georgie Jessel and Paul Lynde imitations on the Stern show. Even though nobody under 60 knows who Jessel is, and Lynde, although a bastard when drunk (which was 80% of the time) was freaking hysterical. I see his clips on YouTube, and I have never been as surprised to see how a lot of his work stands up.

Although none of this has anything whatsoever to do with the 2007 fantasy league season, it does have everything to do with this write-up. I will be using quotes from the movie as jumping-off points to frame the main issues of the 2007 NFL and Ameche/Abitz League seasons, much as Bill Simmons used Anchorman as a jumping-off point for one of his columns. And I promise, that I will not, as Nick Bakay put it, make this 75,000 words about me. Anyway, here we go:



1. "I'm looking for the fountain of middle age"

This goes to Jamal Lewis, who parlayed being released by the Ravens as a procedural move to a new, lucrative contract as the go-to back for the Cleveland Browns. Although he missed the 2001 season with a torn ACL, he bounced back in 2002 and in 2003 ran for over 2000 yards. After that, he has been the titular go-to back in Baltimore, although his production has been dissapointing over the years.

Now in Cleveland, he has his last, best chance, perhaps, to jump-start his career. There is no obvious platoon partner there, the quarterback position is in a state of flux and the receivers are not exactly All-World. So there is a real opportunity here for Lewis to have one last big year.

This is also the last, best chance for Romeo Crennel to make hay as the Browns coach. Closing in on 60, this will be his 3rd season with the Browns and they have made very little progress. He will probably get a pass this season, but next season, certainly, he will be expected to make a run. Ironically, his career path in Cleveland mirrors Bill Belichick's, in that Belichick's first 3 seasons in Cleveland were largely forgettable before finally breaking through in 1994 with an 11-5 record and playoff win.

I don't think Lewis has been the same since he lost much of the 2005 pre-season to being in jail, and am concerned about him running behind that line, but it will be interesting to see if Lewis can have a statistically strong year.

2. "Haven't you ever messed up?"
"No."

Chad's retort to Valerie Desmond at the "Party of the Year" which turned out to be a lame-fest, goes to TONY and Phil's (and specifically TONY's) adamant refusal to trade Chester Taylor last year. This quote is relevant on a number of levels.

TONY's m.o. in these leagues through the years has been never to trade his best undervalued players under any set of circumstances. If you attempted to get JJ Putz from him in the American League last year, you know this first hand. However, he would be willing to move more questionable guys, like Huston Street and Octavio Dotel, and would ask you for your best guys.

The same thing happened last year with Chester Taylor. Arguably, Taylor, at $2, was the best guy in the league. TONY adamantly refused to trade him. I need to get the moon and the stars for Taylor, and even that might not be enough. So, TONY eschewed the big bang that Taylor would provide, instead making lower-level deals (most notably Lee Evans for Vernon Davis) - and wound up winning it all anyway, by the narrowest margin in league history (15 points).

As for Taylor, the Vikings drafted Adrian Peterson in the first round at #7 overall. I would expect that Taylor would still have some value, but he almost certainly will not be the $70 stud that he was last year. And certainly, his trade value will not be what it would have been last year. The bottom line is that it clearly worked out not trading him, but the line between this being a disaster and working out is very thin.

3. "A, B, C.....You're in the top 3, what more do you want?"

To Rex Grossman, Bruce and Walt's would-be cornerstone at QB. This is the guy who last year was to Bruce and Walt what Chet Taylor was to TONY and Phil, but not as good.

While it is true that Rex Grossman got the Bears to a Super Bowl, the fact is that Grossman has been afforded as little respect for a Super Bowl QB as David Woodley. All the guys on the Bears are saying and doing the right things. Lovie Smith has gone out there and stood behind his guy. But, really, what other options do the Bears have? Brian Griese? Chris Leak? Sid Luckman? The fact is this: the Bears, since Sid Luckman, have NEVER had a cutting-edge QB. They have always had these caretaker guys who, at best, were guys that were servicable. Jim McMahon was a perfect example. Jim Harbaugh was another. These are not all-timer guys, these are guys that will lead you into battle and do what they have to do to win.

Obviously Grossman helped get the Bears to a Super Bowl so by definition he cannot be THAT bad - how many Super Bowls did Kordell get the Steelers to? But, it seems that the ceiling for this guy is only going to be so high.


4. "I'm not making it here. I don't fit in. I've got one friend. Derek. And he has no friends."

Don't worry, Derek, this is not for you, we all love you man.

Rather, this is for the sad sack Arizona Cardinals, a team that has a grand total of one playoff win in most of our lifetimes, a team who has no national following whatsoever, whose highlight last year was blowing a 23-3 lead to the Bears and Denny Green melting down about how the Bears are who he thought they were. Whatever the hell that means. (Although, juxtaposed alongside John L. Smith's meltdown, it does make for some good Net viewing.)

Every year, it seems, the Cardinals are everyone's pick to suprise, to have a big year. And everyone makes it like they have this special inside scoop: "No, THIS year is the Arizona Cardinals year!" Really, this is nothing new. They ALWAYS have some flashy new wrinkle that makes people think that, maybe, just maybe THIS is the year.

As long as the Ameche League has existed, this has been the case. Think about it. First it was Buddy Ryan revamping the defense. Then it was Rose Bowl hero Jake the Snake Plummer riding to the rescue. Then it was Cuba Gooding winning an Oscar playing, of all things, a Cardinals wideout. Then it was Denny Green and Larry Fitzgerald. Then it was the beautiful new stadium with the retractable field. Then it was Kurt Warner, then it was Matt Leinart. No, no, no, no, no, no and.....well, one playoff win, that matters, I guess.

This year is no different. Now, THIS is going to be the year. Really, for sure. Leinart has a year under his belt. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are the best 1-2 receivers not named TJ and Ocho Cinco. Edgerrin has a year under his belt with the Cards and he's healthy and he's hungry. And they have two much sought-after coaches, Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm, who were an integral part of the Steelers Super Bowl win. So, everyone is back on the bandwagon, and all these know-nothings are telling us Arizona is going to be the big suprise team. Again.

Only one question: Who's on the offensive and defensive lines. Prediction: 5-11, and we'll do this again in '08.

5. "Mellon is throwing the greatest party of all time! The whole world is there!! It is the greatest thing that happened to me in my entire life!!!"

The beer-soaked ravings of a student outside of Mellon's dorm during the "Party of the century", goes to Randy Moss going to the Patriots. Not since his rookie year in 1998 has dude had as good a look to go to a Super Bowl. Not ever in his career has he been surrounded by the talent and leadership that he has been around.

As Corey Dillon did three years ago, Randy Moss comes to Foxboro at a downturn in his career, for a shot at redeeming his career and re-establishing his Hall of Fame bona fides. So far, Moss has done and said all of the right things. He restructured his contract to a one year deal with a minimum cap hit. There is language that, if it didn't work out, the Patriots could pretty much cut bait at any time with a minimum cap impact.

What Moss did in the end in Minnesota and Oakland is simply not going to fly here. Him taking plays off and not toeing the line is not going to fly. Going to the press to bitch about not getting the ball is not going to fly. To his credit, he knows this is his last, best chance to establish himself as an all-timer and maximize his earning potential, and he is going to do what he can to make it work.

Personally, I thought even before the Pats got Moss that they were addressing the position. They traded for Wes Welker, and they tabbed Kelley Washington from the Bengals. And Reche Caldwell and Jabaar Gaffney seemed to be servicable, decent receivers. When they signed Donte Stallworth, I said, "We're done." This was the game breaker, the ace that every team needs. This was the guy they didn't have all last year. This is a Super Bowl receiving corps, purchased at a Target price. Well done, lads.

Then they go and get Randy Moss, and much like Blake Lewis channeling Robin Thicke, it makes a good thing better. This, I can guarantee you, will not be a Terrell Owens situation. Moss has way too much riding on this. Besides, the Patriots won't let it happen.

This also shows why the Patriots are going to be a dominant team in the NFL for years and years to come. They have the game figured out. They pick the core guys and pay them well. There is also a priority on the offensive and defensive line. Everything else is interchangable parts. Corey Dillon nearing the end of the line, plug in Lawrence Maroney. Lawyer Molloy asking for too much jack, develop Asante Samuel. Because the team is so good, and is run so well, it enables the Pats to get guys like Dillon and Moss for a "winner's discount."

Nor will the Pats blow the cap to try to win now. That is the other secret. For all the Colts did to win last year, their cap situation is a pretty tough one. Already they have had to let a lot of key guys go on offense, and are going to have more difficulties next year. This follows other teams whose cap situations in the AFC have imploded, specifically the Ravens and the Titans. The Titans, specifically are still digging their way out of it.

Yes, the Pats look like the favorite to win the AFC again this year. Then again, every year everyone says the Yankees are going to win, and look what happens there. We'll see in January, I guess. But, if the Patriots weren't in the mix, I'd be shocked.

6. "I didn't (fail you). You failed me, Thornton."

To Michael Vick. Enough said.

7. "Ow! I have got a really bad cramp. I have had a really bad cramp all week!"
"Probably menstrual."

To Eli Manning, much maligned Giants QB and Tiki Barber target. I also think this demonstrates how the Chargers bucked conventional wisdom, traded the #1 overall pick not once but TWICE, and made out both times.

First the trade for Michael Vick. Vick for LT would have been a heist and a half. But then they got Drew Brees in the second round on top of it! LT has been solid right out of the box, although Brees was a dog....until the Chargers parlayed Eli Manning into Phillip Rivers, which made Brees into a machine that just could not be stopped. Oh, and getting Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding doesn't suck either. Say what you want about AJ Smith and his misanthropic tendencies, but the guy does know personnel. John Butler taught him well. (Oh, and I like the new white helmets, but....could you guys PLEASE switch to the powder blues full time? And also add uni numbers on the helmets? Paul Lukas and I thank you in advance!)

As far as Eli, I think the fact that his mates are not charging to his defense tells you everything you need to know. Put another way: What if Corey Dillon took shots at Tom Brady? How would his teammates, his coach react? I think Eli is getting kind of a bum rap, and to his credit I don't think he is wilting under the bright klieg lights, like Ed Whitson did. But I do think he is going to need a fresh start somewhere to reach his potential. Where, I have no freaking idea. Maybe San Francisco? You gotta love how everyone is shocked that Alex Smith, is not exactly Tony "Big Chicklets" Robbins with his hands.

8. "Hey, are you interested in Valerie Desmond? She's with me!"

First a word about the whole Jason-Valerie-Billy Zabka triangle. To me, this is the one part of the movie that just didn't work, and that has not withstood the test of time.

Aside from the fact that in the real world a girl like Valerie (played by Terri Farrell, apparently because Brooke Shields cost too much money) would never in 10,000 years be interested in a guy like Jason (Keith Gordon, who like Ron Howard has focused on a directing career, albeit without much to show for it at this point), the whole thing was just not well written. There were some things that you saw that hinted at Valerie having feelings toward Jason, but it was pretty much just Jason being a puppy dog, Valerie being flattered and them making out. And....cut. Clearly, the whole subplot was inserted as an afterthought and it comes across that way.

The intentional comedy here was Billy Zabka, the bleached-blond surfer dude/villian who was also Ralph Macchio's doppleganger in "The Karate Kid" (yet another wussified wanna-be who lusts after a girl out of his league). What kills me here is that, supposedly, he is interested in Val and wants to get with her, but they show him at the diner at a table with three pretty girls, neither of which is Val Desmond. But, then when he catches Val making out with Jason, he looks shocked. Not, oh my God my dreams are shattered shocked, but just stunned. Like, how did this cat get one over on me? Not that I would have wanted him to get the girl in this movie, but it just didn't work on any level.

This goes to Derek and Rob, my namesake, owners of the DA Dolphins and perennial title contenders, who are going in with one of the best, if not the best, teams this year. At Quarterback, he has Marc Bulger and Damon Huard, both the Missouri quarterbacks. Bulger is 50 and, if he stays upright, well worth it. Baby Huard is a buck and was just named starter. Oh, and he still has Brett Favre. As Jim Rome would say, is that any good?

At RB I like Jerrious Norwood a lot, for $3 I think he is poised to have a big year. Thomas Jones will also do quite well for the Jets, I think. Anquan Boldin is done but Derek pulled the best FA pickup last year in Marques Colston - for a buck!!! He also has Bernard Berrian, Rex Grossman's go to receiver, for what that's worth. The icing? How about Donte Stallworth for 2 and Kellen Winslow for 1, even though he has no one to throw to him in Cleveland.

They does have some jack tied up - Bulger is 50, Tom Jones may or may not be worth keeping at 35, depending on how you see it - but, there is solid talent here and a lot to like.


9. "I'll tell you what. Maybe, if you get a note from each and every one of these people saying that it was alright, we would reconsider. But, until that day, take a hike you elitist fraternity scumbag!"

The most underrated and enduring line in the movie goes to Maurice Jones-Drew, who along with Marques Colston proved to be the biggest suprise and difference-maker among rookies last year.

Lost amongst the shuffle of higher profile guys like Joseph Addai and the infamous Lawrence Maroney (more about that in a few minutes), Jones-Drew nonetheless had a stellar season for the Jaguars, scoring 16 touchdowns and putting Bob JR in title contention right until the bitter end. What he can do as an encore is a question mark at this point but, hey, for $11, it's worth finding out, right?

As far as this line, as I said earlier I saw this movie 21 years ago under very stressful circumstances. So when I went with TONY to the old Showcase Cinemas in Orange to see this, I was wound pretty tight. And I remember, vividly, letting out a big whoop when Robert Downey JR let loose this line on Billy Zabka. Mostly to let off steam, because as you know having your personal property attacked by some fat, tree-burning Gilbert Gottfried-hating piece of shit scumbag while Benny Boy Mickey Mouse is stabbing you in the back at the same time, is not something I would consider a barrel of monkeys (or, as Inspector Clouseau would say, a barrel of minkeys.) Anyway, the line was not something featured in the trailers, and was not a line that was discussed a lot when discussing this movie, but I always remembered it and always enjoyed it.

For that matter, Downey was quasi-enjoyable in this movie, as a guy who on the surface eschewed the "beautiful people" even though you knew that, if he could be a part of their world, he would be in an instant. Incidentially, between rehab stints and jail sentences he would also have a prominent supporting role in Oliver Stone's "Natural Born Killers" as an Australian tabloid TV host. This movie also featured our boy Rodney in a rare dramatic role as Juliette Lewis's abusive father, although as in this movie their characters didn't really interact. Except, of course, for Dangerfield asking Downey if he was trying to get back at his parents for his lame haircut. Good times.

10. "I have only one question for you, Mr. Mellon.....in 27 parts."

With protected 7 fast approaching, it's time for us to check in on the aftermath of the Willie Parker for Lawrence Maroney and $4 and to see if I will, finally, admit what everyone (or at least TONY and Walt) say - that the trade was the worst of all time, that I am an idiot and that I don't get it, even after winning a ring I still don't get it.

Nope.

I still like this trade. If I didn't like it, or I thought it was a disaster, I'd be the first to say it. But I still think this trade is going to work out.

I will say Parker is a solid talent. As of this very moment, I don't think there is anyone who could reasonably say that they would rather have Lawrence Maroney than Willie Parker, all things being equal. To get Parker for $6 is a steal.

However, all is not equal here. He is in his last year. Maroney is in his second year. To that, consider this: By the time I moved Parker, I had already recast my team for this day. I already had Phillip Rivers, Alex Smith, Frank Gore and Parker, all of whom were in their last year. Other than Jamal Lewis, who I considered to be a decent but not game-changing keeper, and Jay Cutler, who at that point in time was not yet the starting QB, I didn't really have anyone on my team with more than a year left that I was really comfortable with that I thought I could trust.

This is when I made the call on Maroney. Originally, Craig wanted a bigger deal that involved Frank Gore. I was not interested in that, but I did like Maroney. Being a Patriot fan and season ticket holder, I saw him run. I saw how he fit in with the Patriots and what they did. I saw how he provided a level of explosiveness, and how he caught passes, which he NEVER did when he was in school at Minnesota. He was a work in process, to be sure, but I liked the upside, and knew that Corey Dillon would not be standing in his way for long. So, swallowing hard, I took the leap of faith.

And, I'm glad I did. The fact he did nothing in the post-season doesn't bother me - nobody ran on the Colts last year in the post-season. The fact that he has been nagged by shoulder injuries is of some concern, but it's not his knees and, besides, Emmitt Smith once ran for 133 yards in a division-clincher against the Giants with his arm literally in a sling under his jersey.

As far as Parker looking better than Maroney now, does anyone remember 2002 when Kurt Warner started the season as the best guy on the planet and wound up basically carrying Marc Bulger's bags? How many times have we all been absolutely certain that someone was going to be The Man, and then it turned out not to be? Every year it happens, and it will certainly happen again this year.

And again, if Maroney does have a strong first half and does give me a shot, he CAN be moved for what I need at that time. Parker would certainly have value, but not in a dump trade this year.

The one regret I do have is that I re-constructed my trades, and figured that, had I played it my trades a little differently, I probably could have ended up with Parker on my team instead of Jamal Lewis, and everything else as is. But as Greg once said, rebuilding is about taking chances. I said that on Draft Day 2007, I would be happy with this trade and that the extra year was worth it

Anyway, that's it. I think most of you guys get this, and to those of you that don't, there's nothing else I can say. BTW to anyone who thinks that what I did affected the standings, I would very politely say, take a look at your own team first.

11. "Let me ask you something, man....Do you make up this Bullshit as you go along, or do you actually read this stuff?"

You know, as much as I would like to pin this on TONY or Derek or the Chapin Gang, I'm leaving it alone. Instead, I will pin this on the Chargers, who are now trying to convince us that Norv Turner - Norv Turner!!!! - is the right guy to lead them to the promised land.

Aside from the Giants, the Chargers are a dysfunctional mess. As I said earlier, I think a lot of this has to do with AJ Smith, the GM. He and Marty never saw eye-to-eye and never established a good working relationship. When the Chargers gave away the playoff game against New England (and, make no mistake, they GAVE that game away), Schottenheimer was finished. Even though he went 14-2 in the regular season and the players all loved him, he was finished. The problem was that they let him hang on and hang on until most of the quality assistant coaches - AND BOTH OF THEIR COORDINATORS - had left for head coaching jobs. True, Wade Phillips is a journeyman coach at best, but he would have provided continuty and a steady hand for a few years. Cam Cameron had some good upside but again I think the strength there was continuty.

To a point I see them working, in that Norv Turner can help Phillip Rivers's continuing development, but that the Chargers would only get Turner as a head coach. Even this may be stretching things a bit - in his prior head coaching stints in Washington and Oakland, he did very little to develop his quarterbacks and offensive talent. As a head coach, he is a great offensive coordinator.

The one silver lining is that the Chargers managed to land Ron Rivera from the Bears, as a linebackers coach. This, I think, was a masterstroke. Rivera was the D-coordinator for the Bears and, for much of the postseason, one of THE hot prospects for getting a head coaching gig. For some reason, however, it went sour for him in Chicago and he wound up leaving. Wisely, the Chargers picked him up, essentially putting him on retainer so that, when Turner doesn't pan out and they wind up squandering LT's prime, Rivera can step in as head coach and, hopefully, right the ship, squeeze one more good year out of LT and get the Chargers into the Super Bowl for the second time.

Or, they might not.


Anyway, that's it for now. More commentary and prose throughout the season, keep it here.












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