First of all, this Vegas Odds posting is sponsored by Frank TV, premiering November 20 on TBS. (insert shot of Caliendo dressed as John Madden saying "Terducken!" here)
First of all, this year, for me anyway, has a quasi deja vu feel to it. I did not adopt any little girls this year; but the Red Sox won the World Series, the Patriots are kicking ass, and I am in the top half of the standings (brain freezes with Phillip Rivers and Tennessee over Seattle notwithstanding.)
As Mel Brooks said in History of the World Part I, "But - dot, dot, dot - you don't understand!!!"
I think more than anything else, this year is showing just how evenly balanced and competitive this league is. As of this moment only 191 points separate the penthouse (Coin Tossers) from....ahem....the non-penthouse (D&B Roadrunners). This I think is a tribute to this league and the competitiveness and evenness of competition. And, although there will almost certainly be some separation in the weeks ahead, would it suprise anyone if any of the teams in the top 5 wind up finishing out of the money entirely? Would it suprise anyone if one of the teams bottom feeding right now made a mad run to finish in the first division? With a bit less than half a season to go, the distance between 5th and 11th, is only 106 points. To show you how easy that is to bridge: consider that teams gained 60 or 70 points in the standings with weeks that were very good, but hardly earth-shattering.
And so with that, we now go to the Odds section of our program. Caution, these passages may contain tangents and rants that have nothing to do with this league, football or anything relevant:
(Note: All odds based on 100 bets. +500=bet 100 to win 500; -400=bet 400 to win 100)
PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT IN 91 DAYS
11. Bushwackers
Odds to win: +1000
Odds to finish in the money: +275
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Ronnie Brown's ACL. If Ronnie Brown is healthy and productive, Greg's not dumping Drew Brees for Matt "Stump the" Schaub
Almost certainly this will mark Greg's 9th year in the league without a title. You all remember how he burst on the scene in 1998, taking over the charred remains of Rod's old team, and ran off what remains the most dominant run in this league's history. Since then he has been competitive but this year, the breaks just have not gone his way. Although LenDale White is probably a keeper, he has not been a difference maker. Reggie Bush has begun to make his mark in this league, especially now that the training wheels (Deuce McAllister) are now off and his nation needs him more than ever; but the fact remains that, at best, he is basically a glorified 3rd down back. Brian Westbrook and Warrick Dunn in his prime is the best you can hope for. Not a bad thing - those guys are all great - but, an all-timer? No.
The problem with Bush for Greg is that he is a cap hog. If for instance his name was "Kevin Faulk", would he command a return engagement for 40? Probably not. It's like the old axe with Rotisserie baseball: The object of the game is not to own ManRam and Big Papi; the idea is to finish with the most points. (And finish ahead of TONY, but I digress.)
Oh, and by the way, if Gale Sayers came out today, he would be Reggie Bush. A good player that would help a team for a number of years, but not a Hall of Famer. The only difference was that, when Sayers came on the scene, there literally had been nothing like him. Think Oscar Robertson in basketball, or Bobby Orr in hockey. They revolutionized their positions. That was Sayers. Like in Brian's Song, he was the Kansas Comet. Revolutionized the position, unprecedented talent, struck down too soon by injuries, see you in Canton.
By the way, let the record show that, while Sayers was in Chicago, the Bears sucked. Badly. It was the last few years of the George Halas regime, Halas having bought himself several more years after winning the NFL Title in 1963. Also let the record show that Sayers, only played in 68 regular season NFL games. That's right - not even 5 full seasons (even at the time) - and he makes the Hall. And Terrell Davis doesn't even get in the fringes of the discussion. Go figure that out.
10. D&B Roadrunners
Odds to win: +900
Odds to finish in the money: +250
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Actually, 92 reasons: Stephen Jackson. Thanks, Stevie Franchise, for finally deciding to show up this year!!!
In the entire history of this league, no franchise has been battered with the 1x6 of bad luck that Team Gade, Dave and Brandon, have this year. Every year, they make moves that look to be smart. Every year, they don't work out and every year they wind up making trades that, you would think, would put them in great position for next year. Then they have another good draft....and it all goes to hell, again. Lather, rinse, repeat.
This year was no different. They drafted Ben Roethlisberger. Excellent move, as it turned out. They brought back Braylon Edwards, who has turned into an elite NFL receiver. And they had Joseph Addai, stolen last year in one of the more lopsided trades this league has seen. And they had the foresight to draft Jesse Chatman, thus having a primary RB (such as he is) fall into his lap when Ronnie Brown went down.
As it turns out, everything came down to Jackson. Just like Shaun Alexander last year, he came in as THE back to have in this year's draft. And, just like Shaun Alexander last year, he pretty much took the first half of the year off. As things turned out, if Stephen Jackson put up the kind of numbers that he was capable of in the 1st half this season, it would be Team Gade dumping to play. But, even with the league as tight as it is, can you count on Jackson to turn it around? Or do you forego an outside shot at the money now for a better tomorrow, knowing that a lot of the teams in the upper half have or will dump their teams to make a run this year?
Wisely Team Gade cashed out, and did very well. The verdict is out so far on Clemens and Cutler but both will get extended long looks the rest of the season. Cutler especially, Mike Shanahan has basically tied his fate in Denver to Cutler's wagon. Laurence Maroney is the poor man's Stephen Jackson; in that he missed a good chunk of the first half of the season and has underachieved; but you have to figure that, in the offensive circus that is New England (note: no double meaning there), Maroney is going to HAVE to get some for himself. The fact he hasn't is, really, one of the big untold stories of this NFL season. As to Vernon Davis, the 49ers are one of the most pathetic offensive teams in NFL history (note: double meaning alert), but he is a big-time guy and, even this year, Davis has shown flashes proving that he can be productive in that offense.
Sidebar: I cannot speak for anyone else, but Dave reminds me, more than a little bit, of Moose Mason. Pehaps you know this cat, he is one of the prime supporting characters in Archie comic books. Setting aside that, not only have most of this league not as much as picked up an Archie comic book since 1975 (indeed, most of you probably have kids that have not picked up one in many years), they have a lot in common - and all good. Aside from appearances - and to me Dave is a pretty close resemblance, to the point where I would consider suing for copyright infringement - to me anyway, Moose is the one genuine character in that whole strip. Seriously. What you see is what you get. He seems like a well-adjusted guy, maybe a little unsure of himself, but there's not one person in that strip that doesn't like him. Everyone likes him. He's like Stanley in the travel hotel commercials, but if Stanley were a jock.
First of all, this year, for me anyway, has a quasi deja vu feel to it. I did not adopt any little girls this year; but the Red Sox won the World Series, the Patriots are kicking ass, and I am in the top half of the standings (brain freezes with Phillip Rivers and Tennessee over Seattle notwithstanding.)
As Mel Brooks said in History of the World Part I, "But - dot, dot, dot - you don't understand!!!"
I think more than anything else, this year is showing just how evenly balanced and competitive this league is. As of this moment only 191 points separate the penthouse (Coin Tossers) from....ahem....the non-penthouse (D&B Roadrunners). This I think is a tribute to this league and the competitiveness and evenness of competition. And, although there will almost certainly be some separation in the weeks ahead, would it suprise anyone if any of the teams in the top 5 wind up finishing out of the money entirely? Would it suprise anyone if one of the teams bottom feeding right now made a mad run to finish in the first division? With a bit less than half a season to go, the distance between 5th and 11th, is only 106 points. To show you how easy that is to bridge: consider that teams gained 60 or 70 points in the standings with weeks that were very good, but hardly earth-shattering.
And so with that, we now go to the Odds section of our program. Caution, these passages may contain tangents and rants that have nothing to do with this league, football or anything relevant:
(Note: All odds based on 100 bets. +500=bet 100 to win 500; -400=bet 400 to win 100)
PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT IN 91 DAYS
11. Bushwackers
Odds to win: +1000
Odds to finish in the money: +275
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Ronnie Brown's ACL. If Ronnie Brown is healthy and productive, Greg's not dumping Drew Brees for Matt "Stump the" Schaub
Almost certainly this will mark Greg's 9th year in the league without a title. You all remember how he burst on the scene in 1998, taking over the charred remains of Rod's old team, and ran off what remains the most dominant run in this league's history. Since then he has been competitive but this year, the breaks just have not gone his way. Although LenDale White is probably a keeper, he has not been a difference maker. Reggie Bush has begun to make his mark in this league, especially now that the training wheels (Deuce McAllister) are now off and his nation needs him more than ever; but the fact remains that, at best, he is basically a glorified 3rd down back. Brian Westbrook and Warrick Dunn in his prime is the best you can hope for. Not a bad thing - those guys are all great - but, an all-timer? No.
The problem with Bush for Greg is that he is a cap hog. If for instance his name was "Kevin Faulk", would he command a return engagement for 40? Probably not. It's like the old axe with Rotisserie baseball: The object of the game is not to own ManRam and Big Papi; the idea is to finish with the most points. (And finish ahead of TONY, but I digress.)
Oh, and by the way, if Gale Sayers came out today, he would be Reggie Bush. A good player that would help a team for a number of years, but not a Hall of Famer. The only difference was that, when Sayers came on the scene, there literally had been nothing like him. Think Oscar Robertson in basketball, or Bobby Orr in hockey. They revolutionized their positions. That was Sayers. Like in Brian's Song, he was the Kansas Comet. Revolutionized the position, unprecedented talent, struck down too soon by injuries, see you in Canton.
By the way, let the record show that, while Sayers was in Chicago, the Bears sucked. Badly. It was the last few years of the George Halas regime, Halas having bought himself several more years after winning the NFL Title in 1963. Also let the record show that Sayers, only played in 68 regular season NFL games. That's right - not even 5 full seasons (even at the time) - and he makes the Hall. And Terrell Davis doesn't even get in the fringes of the discussion. Go figure that out.
10. D&B Roadrunners
Odds to win: +900
Odds to finish in the money: +250
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Actually, 92 reasons: Stephen Jackson. Thanks, Stevie Franchise, for finally deciding to show up this year!!!
In the entire history of this league, no franchise has been battered with the 1x6 of bad luck that Team Gade, Dave and Brandon, have this year. Every year, they make moves that look to be smart. Every year, they don't work out and every year they wind up making trades that, you would think, would put them in great position for next year. Then they have another good draft....and it all goes to hell, again. Lather, rinse, repeat.
This year was no different. They drafted Ben Roethlisberger. Excellent move, as it turned out. They brought back Braylon Edwards, who has turned into an elite NFL receiver. And they had Joseph Addai, stolen last year in one of the more lopsided trades this league has seen. And they had the foresight to draft Jesse Chatman, thus having a primary RB (such as he is) fall into his lap when Ronnie Brown went down.
As it turns out, everything came down to Jackson. Just like Shaun Alexander last year, he came in as THE back to have in this year's draft. And, just like Shaun Alexander last year, he pretty much took the first half of the year off. As things turned out, if Stephen Jackson put up the kind of numbers that he was capable of in the 1st half this season, it would be Team Gade dumping to play. But, even with the league as tight as it is, can you count on Jackson to turn it around? Or do you forego an outside shot at the money now for a better tomorrow, knowing that a lot of the teams in the upper half have or will dump their teams to make a run this year?
Wisely Team Gade cashed out, and did very well. The verdict is out so far on Clemens and Cutler but both will get extended long looks the rest of the season. Cutler especially, Mike Shanahan has basically tied his fate in Denver to Cutler's wagon. Laurence Maroney is the poor man's Stephen Jackson; in that he missed a good chunk of the first half of the season and has underachieved; but you have to figure that, in the offensive circus that is New England (note: no double meaning there), Maroney is going to HAVE to get some for himself. The fact he hasn't is, really, one of the big untold stories of this NFL season. As to Vernon Davis, the 49ers are one of the most pathetic offensive teams in NFL history (note: double meaning alert), but he is a big-time guy and, even this year, Davis has shown flashes proving that he can be productive in that offense.
Sidebar: I cannot speak for anyone else, but Dave reminds me, more than a little bit, of Moose Mason. Pehaps you know this cat, he is one of the prime supporting characters in Archie comic books. Setting aside that, not only have most of this league not as much as picked up an Archie comic book since 1975 (indeed, most of you probably have kids that have not picked up one in many years), they have a lot in common - and all good. Aside from appearances - and to me Dave is a pretty close resemblance, to the point where I would consider suing for copyright infringement - to me anyway, Moose is the one genuine character in that whole strip. Seriously. What you see is what you get. He seems like a well-adjusted guy, maybe a little unsure of himself, but there's not one person in that strip that doesn't like him. Everyone likes him. He's like Stanley in the travel hotel commercials, but if Stanley were a jock.
Perhaps best of all, he landed as his girlfriend Midge Klump. From where I sit, Midge was probably the hottest chick in the whole strip. Certainly, she always seemed to be the one who had the fewest issues - not bitchy and saddled with Daddy issues like Veronica, not insecure and jealous like Betty, she was who she was. And she was loyal to her man. Just a good, satisfying relationship. (The other thing was that Midge might not have been as hot as the other ones, but that paradoxically made her hotter). Perhaps a little high strung, but you come to expect that. There is a reason that certain guys got their asses kicked when they went after her, as they should have.
Anyway, that's my 2c on that. And by the way Moose did play football for Riverdale High so there is your connection. Moving on....
9. Benham Brawlers
Odds to win: +750
Odds to finish in the money: +200
Single biggest reason they are where they are: Ladainian Tomlinson.
Last year at this time, when Ladainian Tomlinson was having a year for the ages, it was said that he was giving Walt and Bruce a team when they didn't have a team. He was exceptional, and up until the final week almost single-handedly gave Walt and Bruce a look at the title, a team that was a championship contender. This year, however, LT is (for him) ordinary, and Walt and Bruce's team is...well, not a championship contender.
In retrospect, what may kill these guys is the trade they made for Marc Bulger. Bulger FINALLY had a good week, this past week but we've seen this before - players who have floundered for most of the year finally put it together, and then go back to the shit heap immediately afterward. Tim Biakabatuka made a career doing this. Selvin Young can be written off as a "who knew", and in that offense his hold on any long-term running back gig is going to be tenuous, at best (insert "Mike Shanahan goes through running back like Larry King goes through wives even though King has been married to the same hottie for more than a decade now" blast). But Santonio Holmes, looks REAL good. Very much a keeper for next year, and a damn good one. Won't he look good lined up next to Marques Colston (who also will be in his last year next year.)
As much as I hate to say it, this right now is a team that is on the precipice of falling out of it completely. They are down to Quinn Gray as a second quarterback. None of their receivers are special, Rudi Johnson is having a terrible year, and they no longer have what would be considered a plum player to trade. Between LT and Portis being solid, they will stay competitive, but too many things need to break their way.
As to the Chargers, they have issues. Big issues. I have covered this before, they have advantages that most teams would kill for. The weather in San Diego is the best in the USA. 70 degrees and sunny all year round. They have one of the best personnel guys in football (AJ Smith), who is smart and canny. For all practical intents and purposes, they are the Los Angeles team in the NFL and have the LA market all to themselves (LA being about 90 minutes away from San Diego). They have great talent on both sides of the ball. They are young. And, not least of all, they have the best uniforms not only in the NFL, but in all of professional sports. I am on record as saying that, if they switch to the powder blues full time and put the numbers back on the helmets, I will be a fan.
But for all the advantages that the Chargers have, they have an equal number of disadvantages, most of their own doing. AJ Smith is brillant, but I sense he is not the easiest guy to work with. He is smart but he also strikes me as a guy who's going to do it his way, and if he doesn't like you, he doesn't like you. You have to wonder about Phillip Rivers' development long term, and how he cannot seem to hang on to the rock. The Chargers' future in San Diego is in doubt, with their continued failure to secure a new stadium (although I always thought they'd be a natural to return to LA, where they played their first season in 1960).
But most of all, I think it is safe to say that, essentially, the Chargers' chances to compete this season were sunk when not only did he fire Marty Schottenheimer, but hired Norv Turner - Norv Turner!!! - to take his place! What, Bum Phillips said no? Did Marion Campbell have a previous engagement? Could Marty Morhinweg not wiggle out of his contract in Philly? As a head coach, Norv is a great offensive coordinator. He did great things last year with the 49er offense, but this year has taken what should be a dominant team, and made them just a run of the mill, middle of the pack team. I cannot think of a more damning indictment of his capabilities as a head coach than that. (For that matter, so goes the argument that, in football, any dunce can win with a talented team.) Plus, it's not like the players like him either - indeed, during the Colts game, guys were already yelling and bitching at Turner. AND THIS WAS IN THE FIRST QUARTER WITH THE CHARGERS HOLDING A 16-0 LEAD!!!!! What is wrong with this picture? Hint: it ain't those sweet powder blues!!!
If there is a silver lining here, it was the move that no one talked about: how AJ Smith hired Ron Rivera to coach the linebackers. You remember Rivera, after the Super Bowl last year he was considered THE hot assistant coach, but couldn't be considered for most jobs because of the Bears' deep playoff run. Oddly, the Bears let him go after the season, for reasons I still don't understand (although the Bears are only slighly less of a cluster you-know-what than the Chargers are.) The Chargers picked him up, maybe to let him have another season of seasoning. But from the time they hired him, I always suspected that, when Turner moves on, Ron Rivera will be the next Charger coach. And that, I think, is the right move.
BTW Fact: the reason the Chargers wear powder blue and gold, was originally to gravy train off of UCLA. As noted above, the Chargers started life in 1960 in the AFL as the LA Chargers. Trying to generate some instant brand identity they basically stole the Bruins' colors, to identify, if only peripherally, with the Bruins. Kind of the same way that the New York Giants got their name, or why the Steelers' original name was the Pirates. Now, ironically enough, it's now the Chargers that everyone associates with the powder blues, even though they only wear them twice a year, at most.
COASTING ON REPUTATION, LIKE AL PACINO IN 'TWO FOR THE MONEY'
8. D.A. Dolphins
Odds to win: +600
Odds to finish in the money: +180
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: The fact that Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson could not and have not adopted to their new surroundings.
If Dave Gade is Moose Mason, then there is no question - absolutely none whatsoever - that Derek is Reggie Mantle. Period. This cannot be denied, there are too many parallels. Both are extreme overachievers. Both have undeniable talent. Both are, ahem, supremely confident. Both talk the talk and walk the walk. Even Reggie has the same last name as a Yankee legend! Plus, I am fairly sure that, if Reggie were in this league, he'd be sending me text messages to get one of my quarterbacks for some scrubbenie that would wind up being cannon fodder in the pool the following week. And, I am sure that, if Derek were at Riverdale High (and not married, natch) he'd be making (successful) plays for Betty and Veronica as well. Shall we shag now or shall we shag later, indeed.
Which begs the question: Who is Garf? Well, I could say Jughead, but Garf doesn't wear a crown and hang out at Pop's Chok'lit (sic) Shop. So that's out. But, still, I don't know, anytime you have a 41-year-old man discussing comic book characters that most 9 year olds consider lame, it is a win. Although I will say, the girls in Archie comic strips were all smoking hot. As hot as anything not in a Boris Vallejo painting. Well, most of them.
Actually, Garf and Derek's team is intriguing. They had Brett Favre (insert .wav file of Ben Stiller saying 'Brett Fav-va-rah' here) and traded him to Pete Gianoni for a package including Adrian Peterson. At the time of the trade, I said it made PGia the favorite. This was before Adrian Peterson went bananas with a 50-point, record setting day (note, just on yardage he hit 26 that afternoon). I would like Derek's chances better with a healthy Peterson (he will miss at least Week 11).
But the trade that might become Herschel Walker in 1989 all over again was, as discussed above, the trade that Derek made with Walt and Bruce - Marc Bulger and Daunte Culpepper for Rex Grossman, Tavaris Jackson, Selvin Young and Santonio Holmes. Bulger is of no value to Derek this year, and Daunte can't beat out Josh McCown for playing time, enough freaking said. Meanwhile, Santonio Holmes has become one of Big Ben's favorite targets, the Denver Wheel of Running Backs has, at least this week, stopped on Selvin Young, Tavaris Jackson is coming back soon and, as bad as Sexy Rexy is, he should still put up medium numbers for the Bears, as long as he plays. This may very well be the rare dump deal that winds up enriching the dumper more than the dumpee in the present time!
Still, you wonder about the depth, how Ocho Cinco will respond to the sinking ship that is the Bengals (so far, not good), how comfortable you can be when your quarterback has already been benched once for Brian Griese, etc. Best guess is that Derek has one more trade in him, to clear out the remaining present value, but will still have enough on deck that he can still manage a halfway decent finish.
By the way, it needs to be noted that, in Spanish, eighty-five is "ochenta cinco". "Ocho Cinco" literally translated is "eight five." Not the same. Babel Fish rules!
7. Tom's Turkeys
Odds to win: +500
Odds to finish in the money: +140
Single biggest reason he is where he is: "Who's your running back Tom?"
Tom is a team that, like most of the teams on the fringe of the race, could go either way. He has some very good pieces - Donovan McNabb, Antonio Gates, the ageless Joey Galloway - but his lack of depth at RB was a fatal blow. Edgerrin James simply is not the back that he was in Indy (and won't be, until Russ Grimm gets that front line to where it needs to be) and none of his other picks worked out.
Until last week it seemed that Tom was going the "get out" mode, trading James and Gates to Craig for a decent package. However it now appears that the trade is off, although it might be resurrected. Although if Tom wants to stay in his only real bargaining chip is Jason Campbell, who by himself would probably not fetch much in trade.
As to the Cardinals, as I said at the beginning of the season this is a team that always seems to be thisclose to turning the corner. There always seems to be just enough going on there for everyone to take them as their big sleeper pick. As John Lennon famously put it, they're a (big) teaser who only takes you half the way there.
But you know what, this time, they may be on to something. I like the way Ken Whisenhunt has made chicken salad with that offense. I think the team has a new attitude. I think Russ Grimm will develop that line to the point where even TONY could run for 1,100 yards. (Well, maybe just 750. But you see me working!) And there are enough pieces on defense, and the new stadium, that they might be on to something, especially when Matt Leinart comes back. For now, I will reserve judgement. Still, like the Pats in 1993, I like what I see over there quite a bit.
THE EVIL EMPIRE '07
(that is, if the evil empire owned 5-star restaurants and/or helped install tile and bathroom vanities in our new house)
6. Nippers
Odds to win: +500
Odds to finish in the money: +120
Single biggest reason he is where he is: Kevin Jones is not a good fantasy running back. Period.
As I said last year, it is gratifying to see Jon Kitna continue to succeed at this level. It says a lot that guys like Kitna and Kurt Warner and Tom Brady have been able to thrive in this league at the highest levels, while high-profile #1 overall picks like Tim Couch, David Carr and Alex Smith are complete and utter washouts. Even though Tim Couch bagged a Playboy centerfold, so don't waste your tears.
About the only thing that hacked me off just a little bit about Kitna is how he meekly "regretted" what I thought was brillant - him dressing as Lions defensive line Joe Cullen, who drove through a Wendy's drive through naked. His wife, Jennifer, dressed as the Wendy girl (who as you know was modeled after founder Dave Thomas's daughter). Hey, if people cannot take a joke, that's their problem. Do what you want, and let the self-important midgets in the press corps play holier than thou.
By the way, I am not a Halloween guy, and never have been. I don't get into dressing up, and never have. There are two costumes, however, that I think are brillant. One was the kid that dressed up as Manny Ramirez, complete with quasi-pajamas, dreads and doorag. Brillant. The other one, which I haven't seen but wish someone would do it, would be a group dressing up as the cast of the Howard Stern Show. Tell me this wouldn't be absolutely brillant. Howard, Robin, Fred, Gary, (ESPECIALLY Gary), Artie, Sal & Richard....Any three guys and one girl can dress up as the Wizard of Oz. This would not only be conceptually brillant but funny as hell. Plus, EVERY SINGLE ONE of those cast members (except maybe Fred) have features that could be exaggerated for comic effect.
Bob's team is the first that I think if he wanted to, he has enough pieces to make a run. A lot would need to break his way but it's not implausible. Carson Palmer is having a good statistical year and would probably yield a decent running back on the back end (did somone say Clinton Portis?) Kenny Watson might also bring in some good value, as he's cheap and it looks like he's going to be the regular guy there. Greg Jennings and Kevin Curtis are $1 running backs that also might be used as chits to bring in value. As currently constituted Bob's team will be competitive, and will have a very good look at the money, although a title run seems a reach.
5. 99 Yarders
Odds to win: +350
Odds to finish in the money: Even
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Derek Anderson
Yet another example of how, in the NFL, scouting quarterbacks is a total crapshoot. Derek Anderson is another guy who not only was not drafted, but couldn't even beat out Charlie Frye for reps!!! We do not know much of his back story yet, but we do know that he lost a coin flip with Frye for first team snaps in the preseason. We also know that they moved a lot to get the pick that would become Brady Quinn from the Cowboys. And after Frye shit the bed in the first game, and was shipped off to Seattle for gravel, the rumbling began. We need to get Brady in there. Get Brady in there, see what the kid can do.
Only problem was, Derek Anderson was taking full advantage of his one shot at the bigs. We don't know much about his back story, but we can say that he did work his ass off, and continues to do so. The proof is in the numbers he has put up. Through Week 10, only three players IN THE ENTIRE NFL have put up better numbers than Anderson: Tom Brady (duh), Tony Romo (not TONY) and Ben Roethlisberger (and Benny Boy got fully 37.5% of his points over the last two games.) Is that any good. Really, it's the real world equivalent of spending 70 on Kurt Warner in the draft, and then spending 2 on Marc Bulger, to fill your last roster spot. (Uh, not that I would know or anything.)
I know last week Cleveland acquitted themselves as well as you could losing. The Browns got off to a great start but could not keep up with the Steelers. What killed them more than anything else was Romeo Crennel totally screwing up that situation late, burning 2 time outs when they shouldn't have spent any. Someone was giving him bad advice, but he had to know. Tell me Bill Belichick would have done that once in a million years.
Bob is solid at QB and Running Back. Anderson and Manning are, as of right now, two Top fantasy quarterbacks. Marion Barber and Maurice Jones-Drew will get their points. However, his wide receivers are thin, and Larry Johnson has been a washout - like Stephen Jackson, less productive than in the past, and injury prone (indeed, he will miss several more weeks.) That said, Bob has some of the best players to move in trades, so if he wants to climb in this, he certainly can. Or he can keep this team together as is and probably make a decent run.
CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS
4. Coin Tossers
Odds on winning: +125
Odds on finishing in the money: -120
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Marshawn Lynch
As always, I like Craig's team a lot. Every year, Craig is in the chase, and there is little mystery as to why - he drafts well, he makes timely FA moves, he makes shrewd trades, there is a lot to like here.
Every year there is a stud rookie RB that comes down the pike. This year, there are two. Adrian Peterson obviously is getting all the love and the press. But, Marshawn Lynch is having close to as good a year. Like the Bills themselves, you don't quite realize how good he is, or how good they are. Think about it - they utterly dominated Dallas on Throwback Night, and on opening day lost to the Broncos when Kevin Everett was hurt. They are 5-4, with a bullet, but are thatclose to being 7-2. And then next week's game with the Pats really means something. It will mean something now, but maybe perhaps not what it could have met. Anyway, this really is a great story, but one that is getting overshadowed by the Pats and Tony Romo (not TONY) and Cameragate and other stuff.
The other thing interesting about Craig's team is that Willie Parker - the guy that I was absolutely pilloried for trading away, and the guy that a certain owner that shall remain nameless basically reamed me about for 30 minutes straight - only has 71 points in the first 9 weeks. Yes, he is a stud. Yes, he will go high next year. The difference there is that, like Lawrence Maroney, he doesn't get in the end zone enough. In this league, rushing for 100 yards is great; but rushing for 60, scoring a TD from a yard out and having another 30 yards receiving is even better. Indeed, he will go well over 1000 yards, perhaps this week, although with the way the Steeler offense is structured his opportunity to score TDs is, somewhat, limited. Again - great player, he's done more than Maroney this year. But a difference maker? So far, not yet.
This past week Craig tried to trade for Antonio Gates and Edgerrin James, which would have solidified him at two positons, but it has bee tabled for now. That said, the critical factor for Craig at this point is going to be David Garrard. This league's history has shown that even a quarterback racking up pedestrian stats can win you a championship, but can you count on David Garrard for even that? Certainly, the Jags are not the roller-coaster, point-a-minute they were at the end of the 90s and early 00s (pronounced "aughts", BTW) But with his top-notch receiving corps, and depth elsewhere, Craig will be in it right to the end. As always.
3. PGia Panthers
Odds to win: Even
Odds to finish in the money: -150
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Tom Brady. Duh.
So much for the distraction that Bridget Moynihan, Jonathan Brady and Gisele Bundchen were going to be.
Every year in this league, there is one difference maker, a guy that can make a shit team good, a good team a contender and a very good team a champion. This year, Tom Brady is that guy.
At the rate Brady is going, he will shatter - absolutely shatter - all records for points in this league. Currently he is averaging - AVERAGING - over 34 points a week. For any quarterback that is an excellent week; Brady is doing this EVERY SINGLE WEEK. When 100 points a week puts you in the running, Brady can pull down fully one-third of those numbers all by himself.
The thing is that the Patriots, really, have become the next great offensive circus. They are following the tradition of the Sid Luckman Bears, the old AFL teams, the Daryle "Mad Bomber" Lamonica Raiders, Air Coryell, the Redskins and the Fun Bunch, the Montana-to-Rice 49ers, the no-huddle Bills, the Max Q Rams.....and now, these Patriots. But for me, there was always something that separated them from those offensive juggernauts. They didn't seem to quite fit. And then, while engaging in this exercise, I figured it out.
Anyway, that's my 2c on that. And by the way Moose did play football for Riverdale High so there is your connection. Moving on....
9. Benham Brawlers
Odds to win: +750
Odds to finish in the money: +200
Single biggest reason they are where they are: Ladainian Tomlinson.
Last year at this time, when Ladainian Tomlinson was having a year for the ages, it was said that he was giving Walt and Bruce a team when they didn't have a team. He was exceptional, and up until the final week almost single-handedly gave Walt and Bruce a look at the title, a team that was a championship contender. This year, however, LT is (for him) ordinary, and Walt and Bruce's team is...well, not a championship contender.
In retrospect, what may kill these guys is the trade they made for Marc Bulger. Bulger FINALLY had a good week, this past week but we've seen this before - players who have floundered for most of the year finally put it together, and then go back to the shit heap immediately afterward. Tim Biakabatuka made a career doing this. Selvin Young can be written off as a "who knew", and in that offense his hold on any long-term running back gig is going to be tenuous, at best (insert "Mike Shanahan goes through running back like Larry King goes through wives even though King has been married to the same hottie for more than a decade now" blast). But Santonio Holmes, looks REAL good. Very much a keeper for next year, and a damn good one. Won't he look good lined up next to Marques Colston (who also will be in his last year next year.)
As much as I hate to say it, this right now is a team that is on the precipice of falling out of it completely. They are down to Quinn Gray as a second quarterback. None of their receivers are special, Rudi Johnson is having a terrible year, and they no longer have what would be considered a plum player to trade. Between LT and Portis being solid, they will stay competitive, but too many things need to break their way.
As to the Chargers, they have issues. Big issues. I have covered this before, they have advantages that most teams would kill for. The weather in San Diego is the best in the USA. 70 degrees and sunny all year round. They have one of the best personnel guys in football (AJ Smith), who is smart and canny. For all practical intents and purposes, they are the Los Angeles team in the NFL and have the LA market all to themselves (LA being about 90 minutes away from San Diego). They have great talent on both sides of the ball. They are young. And, not least of all, they have the best uniforms not only in the NFL, but in all of professional sports. I am on record as saying that, if they switch to the powder blues full time and put the numbers back on the helmets, I will be a fan.
But for all the advantages that the Chargers have, they have an equal number of disadvantages, most of their own doing. AJ Smith is brillant, but I sense he is not the easiest guy to work with. He is smart but he also strikes me as a guy who's going to do it his way, and if he doesn't like you, he doesn't like you. You have to wonder about Phillip Rivers' development long term, and how he cannot seem to hang on to the rock. The Chargers' future in San Diego is in doubt, with their continued failure to secure a new stadium (although I always thought they'd be a natural to return to LA, where they played their first season in 1960).
But most of all, I think it is safe to say that, essentially, the Chargers' chances to compete this season were sunk when not only did he fire Marty Schottenheimer, but hired Norv Turner - Norv Turner!!! - to take his place! What, Bum Phillips said no? Did Marion Campbell have a previous engagement? Could Marty Morhinweg not wiggle out of his contract in Philly? As a head coach, Norv is a great offensive coordinator. He did great things last year with the 49er offense, but this year has taken what should be a dominant team, and made them just a run of the mill, middle of the pack team. I cannot think of a more damning indictment of his capabilities as a head coach than that. (For that matter, so goes the argument that, in football, any dunce can win with a talented team.) Plus, it's not like the players like him either - indeed, during the Colts game, guys were already yelling and bitching at Turner. AND THIS WAS IN THE FIRST QUARTER WITH THE CHARGERS HOLDING A 16-0 LEAD!!!!! What is wrong with this picture? Hint: it ain't those sweet powder blues!!!
If there is a silver lining here, it was the move that no one talked about: how AJ Smith hired Ron Rivera to coach the linebackers. You remember Rivera, after the Super Bowl last year he was considered THE hot assistant coach, but couldn't be considered for most jobs because of the Bears' deep playoff run. Oddly, the Bears let him go after the season, for reasons I still don't understand (although the Bears are only slighly less of a cluster you-know-what than the Chargers are.) The Chargers picked him up, maybe to let him have another season of seasoning. But from the time they hired him, I always suspected that, when Turner moves on, Ron Rivera will be the next Charger coach. And that, I think, is the right move.
BTW Fact: the reason the Chargers wear powder blue and gold, was originally to gravy train off of UCLA. As noted above, the Chargers started life in 1960 in the AFL as the LA Chargers. Trying to generate some instant brand identity they basically stole the Bruins' colors, to identify, if only peripherally, with the Bruins. Kind of the same way that the New York Giants got their name, or why the Steelers' original name was the Pirates. Now, ironically enough, it's now the Chargers that everyone associates with the powder blues, even though they only wear them twice a year, at most.
COASTING ON REPUTATION, LIKE AL PACINO IN 'TWO FOR THE MONEY'
8. D.A. Dolphins
Odds to win: +600
Odds to finish in the money: +180
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: The fact that Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson could not and have not adopted to their new surroundings.
If Dave Gade is Moose Mason, then there is no question - absolutely none whatsoever - that Derek is Reggie Mantle. Period. This cannot be denied, there are too many parallels. Both are extreme overachievers. Both have undeniable talent. Both are, ahem, supremely confident. Both talk the talk and walk the walk. Even Reggie has the same last name as a Yankee legend! Plus, I am fairly sure that, if Reggie were in this league, he'd be sending me text messages to get one of my quarterbacks for some scrubbenie that would wind up being cannon fodder in the pool the following week. And, I am sure that, if Derek were at Riverdale High (and not married, natch) he'd be making (successful) plays for Betty and Veronica as well. Shall we shag now or shall we shag later, indeed.
Which begs the question: Who is Garf? Well, I could say Jughead, but Garf doesn't wear a crown and hang out at Pop's Chok'lit (sic) Shop. So that's out. But, still, I don't know, anytime you have a 41-year-old man discussing comic book characters that most 9 year olds consider lame, it is a win. Although I will say, the girls in Archie comic strips were all smoking hot. As hot as anything not in a Boris Vallejo painting. Well, most of them.
Actually, Garf and Derek's team is intriguing. They had Brett Favre (insert .wav file of Ben Stiller saying 'Brett Fav-va-rah' here) and traded him to Pete Gianoni for a package including Adrian Peterson. At the time of the trade, I said it made PGia the favorite. This was before Adrian Peterson went bananas with a 50-point, record setting day (note, just on yardage he hit 26 that afternoon). I would like Derek's chances better with a healthy Peterson (he will miss at least Week 11).
But the trade that might become Herschel Walker in 1989 all over again was, as discussed above, the trade that Derek made with Walt and Bruce - Marc Bulger and Daunte Culpepper for Rex Grossman, Tavaris Jackson, Selvin Young and Santonio Holmes. Bulger is of no value to Derek this year, and Daunte can't beat out Josh McCown for playing time, enough freaking said. Meanwhile, Santonio Holmes has become one of Big Ben's favorite targets, the Denver Wheel of Running Backs has, at least this week, stopped on Selvin Young, Tavaris Jackson is coming back soon and, as bad as Sexy Rexy is, he should still put up medium numbers for the Bears, as long as he plays. This may very well be the rare dump deal that winds up enriching the dumper more than the dumpee in the present time!
Still, you wonder about the depth, how Ocho Cinco will respond to the sinking ship that is the Bengals (so far, not good), how comfortable you can be when your quarterback has already been benched once for Brian Griese, etc. Best guess is that Derek has one more trade in him, to clear out the remaining present value, but will still have enough on deck that he can still manage a halfway decent finish.
By the way, it needs to be noted that, in Spanish, eighty-five is "ochenta cinco". "Ocho Cinco" literally translated is "eight five." Not the same. Babel Fish rules!
7. Tom's Turkeys
Odds to win: +500
Odds to finish in the money: +140
Single biggest reason he is where he is: "Who's your running back Tom?"
Tom is a team that, like most of the teams on the fringe of the race, could go either way. He has some very good pieces - Donovan McNabb, Antonio Gates, the ageless Joey Galloway - but his lack of depth at RB was a fatal blow. Edgerrin James simply is not the back that he was in Indy (and won't be, until Russ Grimm gets that front line to where it needs to be) and none of his other picks worked out.
Until last week it seemed that Tom was going the "get out" mode, trading James and Gates to Craig for a decent package. However it now appears that the trade is off, although it might be resurrected. Although if Tom wants to stay in his only real bargaining chip is Jason Campbell, who by himself would probably not fetch much in trade.
As to the Cardinals, as I said at the beginning of the season this is a team that always seems to be thisclose to turning the corner. There always seems to be just enough going on there for everyone to take them as their big sleeper pick. As John Lennon famously put it, they're a (big) teaser who only takes you half the way there.
But you know what, this time, they may be on to something. I like the way Ken Whisenhunt has made chicken salad with that offense. I think the team has a new attitude. I think Russ Grimm will develop that line to the point where even TONY could run for 1,100 yards. (Well, maybe just 750. But you see me working!) And there are enough pieces on defense, and the new stadium, that they might be on to something, especially when Matt Leinart comes back. For now, I will reserve judgement. Still, like the Pats in 1993, I like what I see over there quite a bit.
THE EVIL EMPIRE '07
(that is, if the evil empire owned 5-star restaurants and/or helped install tile and bathroom vanities in our new house)
6. Nippers
Odds to win: +500
Odds to finish in the money: +120
Single biggest reason he is where he is: Kevin Jones is not a good fantasy running back. Period.
As I said last year, it is gratifying to see Jon Kitna continue to succeed at this level. It says a lot that guys like Kitna and Kurt Warner and Tom Brady have been able to thrive in this league at the highest levels, while high-profile #1 overall picks like Tim Couch, David Carr and Alex Smith are complete and utter washouts. Even though Tim Couch bagged a Playboy centerfold, so don't waste your tears.
About the only thing that hacked me off just a little bit about Kitna is how he meekly "regretted" what I thought was brillant - him dressing as Lions defensive line Joe Cullen, who drove through a Wendy's drive through naked. His wife, Jennifer, dressed as the Wendy girl (who as you know was modeled after founder Dave Thomas's daughter). Hey, if people cannot take a joke, that's their problem. Do what you want, and let the self-important midgets in the press corps play holier than thou.
By the way, I am not a Halloween guy, and never have been. I don't get into dressing up, and never have. There are two costumes, however, that I think are brillant. One was the kid that dressed up as Manny Ramirez, complete with quasi-pajamas, dreads and doorag. Brillant. The other one, which I haven't seen but wish someone would do it, would be a group dressing up as the cast of the Howard Stern Show. Tell me this wouldn't be absolutely brillant. Howard, Robin, Fred, Gary, (ESPECIALLY Gary), Artie, Sal & Richard....Any three guys and one girl can dress up as the Wizard of Oz. This would not only be conceptually brillant but funny as hell. Plus, EVERY SINGLE ONE of those cast members (except maybe Fred) have features that could be exaggerated for comic effect.
Bob's team is the first that I think if he wanted to, he has enough pieces to make a run. A lot would need to break his way but it's not implausible. Carson Palmer is having a good statistical year and would probably yield a decent running back on the back end (did somone say Clinton Portis?) Kenny Watson might also bring in some good value, as he's cheap and it looks like he's going to be the regular guy there. Greg Jennings and Kevin Curtis are $1 running backs that also might be used as chits to bring in value. As currently constituted Bob's team will be competitive, and will have a very good look at the money, although a title run seems a reach.
5. 99 Yarders
Odds to win: +350
Odds to finish in the money: Even
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Derek Anderson
Yet another example of how, in the NFL, scouting quarterbacks is a total crapshoot. Derek Anderson is another guy who not only was not drafted, but couldn't even beat out Charlie Frye for reps!!! We do not know much of his back story yet, but we do know that he lost a coin flip with Frye for first team snaps in the preseason. We also know that they moved a lot to get the pick that would become Brady Quinn from the Cowboys. And after Frye shit the bed in the first game, and was shipped off to Seattle for gravel, the rumbling began. We need to get Brady in there. Get Brady in there, see what the kid can do.
Only problem was, Derek Anderson was taking full advantage of his one shot at the bigs. We don't know much about his back story, but we can say that he did work his ass off, and continues to do so. The proof is in the numbers he has put up. Through Week 10, only three players IN THE ENTIRE NFL have put up better numbers than Anderson: Tom Brady (duh), Tony Romo (not TONY) and Ben Roethlisberger (and Benny Boy got fully 37.5% of his points over the last two games.) Is that any good. Really, it's the real world equivalent of spending 70 on Kurt Warner in the draft, and then spending 2 on Marc Bulger, to fill your last roster spot. (Uh, not that I would know or anything.)
I know last week Cleveland acquitted themselves as well as you could losing. The Browns got off to a great start but could not keep up with the Steelers. What killed them more than anything else was Romeo Crennel totally screwing up that situation late, burning 2 time outs when they shouldn't have spent any. Someone was giving him bad advice, but he had to know. Tell me Bill Belichick would have done that once in a million years.
Bob is solid at QB and Running Back. Anderson and Manning are, as of right now, two Top fantasy quarterbacks. Marion Barber and Maurice Jones-Drew will get their points. However, his wide receivers are thin, and Larry Johnson has been a washout - like Stephen Jackson, less productive than in the past, and injury prone (indeed, he will miss several more weeks.) That said, Bob has some of the best players to move in trades, so if he wants to climb in this, he certainly can. Or he can keep this team together as is and probably make a decent run.
CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS
4. Coin Tossers
Odds on winning: +125
Odds on finishing in the money: -120
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Marshawn Lynch
As always, I like Craig's team a lot. Every year, Craig is in the chase, and there is little mystery as to why - he drafts well, he makes timely FA moves, he makes shrewd trades, there is a lot to like here.
Every year there is a stud rookie RB that comes down the pike. This year, there are two. Adrian Peterson obviously is getting all the love and the press. But, Marshawn Lynch is having close to as good a year. Like the Bills themselves, you don't quite realize how good he is, or how good they are. Think about it - they utterly dominated Dallas on Throwback Night, and on opening day lost to the Broncos when Kevin Everett was hurt. They are 5-4, with a bullet, but are thatclose to being 7-2. And then next week's game with the Pats really means something. It will mean something now, but maybe perhaps not what it could have met. Anyway, this really is a great story, but one that is getting overshadowed by the Pats and Tony Romo (not TONY) and Cameragate and other stuff.
The other thing interesting about Craig's team is that Willie Parker - the guy that I was absolutely pilloried for trading away, and the guy that a certain owner that shall remain nameless basically reamed me about for 30 minutes straight - only has 71 points in the first 9 weeks. Yes, he is a stud. Yes, he will go high next year. The difference there is that, like Lawrence Maroney, he doesn't get in the end zone enough. In this league, rushing for 100 yards is great; but rushing for 60, scoring a TD from a yard out and having another 30 yards receiving is even better. Indeed, he will go well over 1000 yards, perhaps this week, although with the way the Steeler offense is structured his opportunity to score TDs is, somewhat, limited. Again - great player, he's done more than Maroney this year. But a difference maker? So far, not yet.
This past week Craig tried to trade for Antonio Gates and Edgerrin James, which would have solidified him at two positons, but it has bee tabled for now. That said, the critical factor for Craig at this point is going to be David Garrard. This league's history has shown that even a quarterback racking up pedestrian stats can win you a championship, but can you count on David Garrard for even that? Certainly, the Jags are not the roller-coaster, point-a-minute they were at the end of the 90s and early 00s (pronounced "aughts", BTW) But with his top-notch receiving corps, and depth elsewhere, Craig will be in it right to the end. As always.
3. PGia Panthers
Odds to win: Even
Odds to finish in the money: -150
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Tom Brady. Duh.
So much for the distraction that Bridget Moynihan, Jonathan Brady and Gisele Bundchen were going to be.
Every year in this league, there is one difference maker, a guy that can make a shit team good, a good team a contender and a very good team a champion. This year, Tom Brady is that guy.
At the rate Brady is going, he will shatter - absolutely shatter - all records for points in this league. Currently he is averaging - AVERAGING - over 34 points a week. For any quarterback that is an excellent week; Brady is doing this EVERY SINGLE WEEK. When 100 points a week puts you in the running, Brady can pull down fully one-third of those numbers all by himself.
The thing is that the Patriots, really, have become the next great offensive circus. They are following the tradition of the Sid Luckman Bears, the old AFL teams, the Daryle "Mad Bomber" Lamonica Raiders, Air Coryell, the Redskins and the Fun Bunch, the Montana-to-Rice 49ers, the no-huddle Bills, the Max Q Rams.....and now, these Patriots. But for me, there was always something that separated them from those offensive juggernauts. They didn't seem to quite fit. And then, while engaging in this exercise, I figured it out.
The thing with the Patriots that differentiates them from all these other teams is that their offense is not what I would call cutting edge. Rather, it is a relatively straightforward offense that is designed to react to and take advantage of the other team's flaws. A Wee Willie Keeler approach to offense, if you will. The offense, is also predicated on spreading the wealth. A Marxist offense, if you will. Just like teams could not pitch around Big Papi because of ManRam or Mike Lowell or J.D. Drew, teams can not focus on Randy Moss and ignore Donte Stallworth or Wes Welker or Ben Watson or even Kevin Faulk.
From a competitive/historical standpoint, the team that these Pats resemble most are the old 49ers. Yes, they were fun to watch, and yes they had a cutting edge offense. But the 49ers defense was just as good, and they knew how to win when it mattered most. That is what differentiated those 49ers from other fun-to-watch offensive circuses (circii?) and why they could win - because they were well coached, and the defense was more than an afterthought. (For that matter, so did the Max Q Rams, but the difference there is that Mike Martz was a wealthy man's Norv Turner.) It's not a coincidence that Tom Brady is universally considered to be the new Joe Montana. (In more ways than one, too - Montana was a playa with the ladies as well, the only difference was that he got married three times. Though he did get it right the last time.)
For that matter, Belichick has more in common with Bill Walsh than you might think, not least of all their personalities. Walsh's image in the press was one of someone who was an intellectual, soft-spoken and polite, and I think that was who he was to a point. But, really, I think Walsh was also a bit aloof and cold. And I think that he had his grudges and personality conflicts - ask Steve Mariucci. Not out of meanness, necessarily, but that is just the way he was. He was not a natural politician. As much as anything that is why Walsh, more than anyone else, always reminded me more than a little bit of Charles Schulz. (And yes, I miss them both terribly, thanks for asking) I think Belichick is much the same way. I don't think he is a bad guy, but I do think that he lives and breaths the game and that it is tough to work your way to his inner circle. If you want to get an idea of what drives Belichick, and what makes him who he is, I suggest you read David Halberstam's "The Education of a Coach". Excellent book.
As if Brady wasn't enough, Gianoni made what I thought (and still think) was a GREAT trade, getting Brett Favre, and Ced Benson and Tom Jones. Benson and Jones have underachieved all year, but one of them could pick it up as the year goes on. Favre is Favre, to me his year this year reminds me of Jorge Posada this past year, or Mike Schmidt back in 1986 - basically, an aging superstar who manages to pull together one last great year at the end of his career by using all their experiences to optimize their diminishing skills. Whether it's a more patient eye at the plate, efficency of movement, learning to "manage the game" more - it's all the same, for the most part.
Pete also has the best defensive situation in the league and Nick Folk is doing well also. I said at the time that Pete was the favorite to win; I will back off of that just a bit, especially in light of what has happened since the trade, but still think this is one of the teams to beat.
2. Anthonyapolis ColtsFor that matter, Belichick has more in common with Bill Walsh than you might think, not least of all their personalities. Walsh's image in the press was one of someone who was an intellectual, soft-spoken and polite, and I think that was who he was to a point. But, really, I think Walsh was also a bit aloof and cold. And I think that he had his grudges and personality conflicts - ask Steve Mariucci. Not out of meanness, necessarily, but that is just the way he was. He was not a natural politician. As much as anything that is why Walsh, more than anyone else, always reminded me more than a little bit of Charles Schulz. (And yes, I miss them both terribly, thanks for asking) I think Belichick is much the same way. I don't think he is a bad guy, but I do think that he lives and breaths the game and that it is tough to work your way to his inner circle. If you want to get an idea of what drives Belichick, and what makes him who he is, I suggest you read David Halberstam's "The Education of a Coach". Excellent book.
As if Brady wasn't enough, Gianoni made what I thought (and still think) was a GREAT trade, getting Brett Favre, and Ced Benson and Tom Jones. Benson and Jones have underachieved all year, but one of them could pick it up as the year goes on. Favre is Favre, to me his year this year reminds me of Jorge Posada this past year, or Mike Schmidt back in 1986 - basically, an aging superstar who manages to pull together one last great year at the end of his career by using all their experiences to optimize their diminishing skills. Whether it's a more patient eye at the plate, efficency of movement, learning to "manage the game" more - it's all the same, for the most part.
Pete also has the best defensive situation in the league and Nick Folk is doing well also. I said at the time that Pete was the favorite to win; I will back off of that just a bit, especially in light of what has happened since the trade, but still think this is one of the teams to beat.
Odds to win: -150
Odds to finish in the money: -200
Single biggest reason he is where he is right now: Tony Romo. Duh.
So much for the distraction that being with Carrie Underwood, Jessica Simpson and Sophia Bush - and gagging away a playoff game against Seattle - were going to be.
Romo is yet another example of how NFL teams cannot scout quarterbacks. (I mean, other than Peyton Manning and Big Ben is there ANY quarterback drafted in the first round that is cashing in their promise, that their fans are not completely pissed off with? Uh....not you, Donovan.) More than any position in any other sport, can't miss guys do, and who-dats and afterthoughts become superstars. This, mind you, on perhaps the most visible and charismatic position in the entire sporting universe.
Romo is a guy who started with the Cowboys, and just hung around and hung around. For four years. Guys started their careers and flamed out in the time that Romo sat. When it was clear that whatever mojo Drew Bledsoe had was gone (which Pats fans already knew in 2001) the Cowboys, desperate to goose their fortunes, gave Romo a shot. And he has not looked back.
I like Romo a lot. Elsewhere on this blog you will see my quick-hit opinion of how he handled himself after the playoff loss this January. He could not have handled it better - he owned it, AND he learned from it, and he is stronger for it. There's a reason that Terrell Owens killed Donovan McNabb and for all practical intents and purposes called Jeff Garcia a faggot, yet he seems to unconditionally respect Romo. There has to be a reason. Part of it may be that Jerry Jones got in his head, or Parcells before; but, believe me, if Owens had a problem with Romo, we'd all know about it. Certainly, we can presume it's not anything that Wade Phillips would have said. Whatever, Dallas to him seems to be like Detroit has been for Rasheed Wallace - an ideal landing spot where he can thrive and be happy. BTW the fans love him too - when we went to the Big E and to Disney World in October, aside from the usual suspects, who was the shirt that I saw people rockin' most often? Tony Romo. And it wasn't close.
Or, maybe its the fact that both Romo and Owens, can be found on the Anthonyapolis Colts.
In the same way that you can always count on a guy having a transcendent year in this league, you can always count on TONY and Phil holding on to their primo fantasy league asset for dear life. Last year it was Chester Taylor; this year it is Tony Romo (not HIMSELF) that they will not sell for gold or silver. Sure, he'll trade the rest of his team - Eli Manning, Stump the Schaub, John Beck - and ask for your best guys in return. But, no, not the cornerstone, the cornerstone is not for sale.
TONY and Phil's receivers are solid as well. Besides Owens, he has Plaxico 757, Larry "Not my 7th grade gym teacher" Fitzgerald and Lee Evans, a sleeping giant. Running back is a bit thin but Willis McGahee was a great get (even though he, like Willie Parker, doesn't score a lot of touchdowns) and Earnest Graham has some promise. Not much has to break TONY's way to win it as is, and if he trades Romo for anything resembling fair value, you can pretty much toss these odds out the window and basically just give TONY the trophy at that point in time. But he might not have to - last year the trade that put TONY and Phil over the top was an under-the-radar deadline deal, Vernon Davis for Lee Evans. Evans did just enough over that last month, to give TONY the win in the closest finish ever. And certainly the same thing can happen this year.
In fact, how hard can it be? All he needs to do is finish in front of....
1. Peteriot Nation
Odds to win: -160
Odds to finish in the money: -210
Single biggest reason he is where he is today: Lawrence Maroney
Believe it. Again.
When the trade for Maroney was made last year, Pete said at the time that he was making it as much for future trade value as anything else. That Willie Parker, even though he was better than Maroney, would not yield nearly as much in a possible dump trade in 2007. And even if things fell to shit, Maroney could always be brought back in 2008 for one more run at it. Simply put, there was a flexibility there with Maroney that would not and is not there with Junkyard Willie.
Although Maroney has been, to say the least, a dissapointment, the trade did yield a number of significant, if indirect, benefits. Primary of which was the not inconsequential 4 extra dollars to spend in the draft. This gave Pete the flexibility to go "2" when Wes Welker's name was called out at the tail end of the draft as well as up to "17" on Randy Moss. Both picks have worked out fairly well, at least so far.Most of all, having Maroney enabled the trade with Team Gade for Roethlisberger, Houshmandzadeh and Stephen Jackson. No Maroney, no trade. Now: take a look at Pete's team the last two weeks, look at what the guys Pete traded for did, and look at what the guys Pete traded away did.
It is interesting to note that Team Gade GM Brandon Gade (who was the point person in trade negotiations) said after the deal he was unsure if PGar would give up Maroney. Yet he did, and wound up with him. Which, again, proves the point that I have made countless times in the past: Always shoot the moon, even if you don't hit it you will still fall among the stars, and who knows, you might suprise yourself in the process. This also applies to real life as well: What if Michael J. Fox didn't ask out Tracy Pollan because he didn't think she in a million years would be interested in a short, chain-smoking Canuck who people even back then were deriding as Mickey Rooney's obnoxo neocon grandnephew? What if Barack Obama decided that, at this point in his political career, running for President was out of his reach this time around? What if TONY thought that Katherine Heigl and Carrie Underwood would not give him the time of day because they thought of him as boorish and obnoxious and a wee bit too concerned about beating back Derek and Bob SR? Uh....better not answer that last one. (Though I will say, to his credit, TONY is one of the best guys that I have seen around women. I really mean that - he is comfortable, he is at ease, and he makes them at ease. In any situation. Watch him the next time you're with him, or at the Super Bowl, and you'll see what I mean.)
You could argue that biggest damage that Maroney did to Pete was not when he was hurt and didn't play, but rather when he did play and was started in front of Jamal Lewis when he had a huge week in Week 2, and then in front of DeShawn Foster when he had a huge Week 3. That, and missing out on a huge week by Seattle's defense has hurt Pete badly. But consider this: With Moss and Welker, PGar is uniquely positioned to keep PGia in check. When Brady scores, there's a good chance Moss and Welker score. PGia will gain on the rest of the league, but will only gain on PGar so much. TJ Houshmandzadeh is a solid starter, and was perhaps the unsung chit in the big trade. Either Andre Davis or Andre Johnson should be very good for Pete in Houston and Chambers is a sleeping giant in San Diego.
To be sure, Pete's running back situation is shaky - Stephen Jackson is a week-to-week proposition, at best, Jamal Lewis is feast or famine, either going Al Bundy or dissapearing entirely, and DeShaun Foster only seems to do good when PGar does not start him. But in doing this exercise, I have found that most guys have at least some issues at Running Back, and the team with perhaps the best situation have issues everywhere else.
But still there is a lot to like here - the Seahawks' defense and Dallas Clark were steals - and timing is on Pete's side: like Drew Brees 3 years ago, as of right now it sure seems like he may have acquired Ben Roethlisberger just as he was about to go off as well. And, like 3 years ago, with only a few exceptions his critical pieces have remained healthy.
It is a tight race, and any one small matter can shift the balance of power irrevocably. But right now, all things being equal - and considering that he has left a ton of points on the table - as much as anyone, PGar is the favorite to take his 2nd ring in 4 years.
Sound familiar?
