2008: The Ameche League Year in Review

Finally, FINALLY, as promised, we have the 2008 Ameche League Year in Review.

First, let's present the All-Star Teams:

The All-Value Team rewards unexpected and surprising performance beyond reasonable expectations at great value and is as follows (starters in bold):

QB: Chad Pennington (Co-Captain), Matt Cassel, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco.
RB: Michael Turner (Captain), DeAngelo Williams (Co-Captain), Chris Johnson, Pierre Thomas, Le'Ron McClain, Steve Slaton, Tom Jones.
WR: Eddie Royal (Co-Captain), Calvin Johnson, Hines Ward, Roddy White, Bernard Berrian, Derrick Mason.
TE: Anthony Fasano, John Carlson.
K: Stephen Gostkowski, John Carney
DEF: Tampa Bay, Baltimore

The All-Dunce team, ahem, acknowledges for the record players that underachieved and seriously hamstrung their owners and is as follows:

QB: Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, JaMarcus Russell.
RB: Willis McGahee (Co-Captain), Stephen Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren McFadden, Jamal Lewis, Frank Gore, Lawrence Maroney.
WR: Plaxico Burress (Captain), Chad Ocho Cinco (Co-Captain), Joey Galloway, Lee Evans, Patrick Crayton, Marvin Harrison.
TE: Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey.
K: Shayne Graham, Seb Janikowski.
DEF: Seattle, Houston.


Vegas Odds 2009:

With the 2008 season all but decided, and TONY and Phil having won their 3rd straight Ameche League title (going Joe McCabe on our collective asses in the process), we roll out a new feature this year: Vegas Odds for 2009. So here we go:

(Key to odds: +140, wager 100 to win 140; -150, wager 150 to win 100)
(Key to salaries: Salary/contract status for 2009)

Benham Brawlers:
Odds to win: +210
Odds to finish in the money: +150

Likely returnees: JaMarcus Russell (15/1), Brady Quinn (9/1), Clinton Portis (39/1), Derrick Ward (5/2).
Reaches: Rashard Mendenhall (10/2), Robert Meacham (1/2), Vernon Davis (1/2), Michael Jenkins (1/2)

Another long year for the Walt and Bruce Express. The Vikings and Redskins had good years, with some highlights but a lot of rough patches. Safe to say, the trade of Matt Ryan for Jamal Lewis DID NOT work out; even though when the trade was made no one could have expected that Ryan would have the kind of year that he would, and Lewis was proven and reliable and a go-to back for the Browns. Alas, like the Browns, Lewis was a major, major dissapointment.

Brady Quinn will be the starter for the Browns next year and, if Marty Schottenheimer returns to the Browns he has the potential to have a very nice year. Derrick Ward will get carries and touches with the Giants.

As to Marty. When the Chargers let him go, I said that his most likely next landing spot was one of the Ohio teams. Right now he is EXACTLY what BOTH those teams need - a veteran coach, with a history of success, who players love and respect. His postseason chronicles are well documented, but right now either one of those teams would happily take on that baggage for the quick fix that Marty can provide those franchises.

My thought is that Cleveland is the better fit. Cincinnati is an effing mess, they are injury prone with headcases and thugs. The Browns are dysfunctional but they are a season removed from a decent year and my thought is that the right coach can go in there now, and win. Plus Marty has won in Cleveland before and he knows the fans and the fans love him.

As to the reaches. Mendenhall has a shot to matter in Pittsburgh, with Willie Parker being fragile like a china doll, Vernon Davis is as cheap as they come, and Robert Meacham has "Yet another TONY Bill of Goods" written all over it.

BTW Bruce, I will see you on Thursday, and Pam says bring either an appetizer or a kids' dessert. Your choice.


Bushwackers

Odds to win: +160
Odds to finish in the money: +100

Likely returnees: Drew Brees (78/2), Chris Johnson (9/2), Dwayne Bowe (3/1), Tim Hightower (7/2)
Reaches: Ryan Torain (3/2), Roy Williams (15/1), Tampa defense (1/2)

Drew Brees is a difference maker at quarterback. These are the kind of guys who you cannot pay enough for, they make your team. They can make a sorry team a contender, a decent team very good, and a very good team a champion, all by themselves. Chris Johnson is also rarest and most valuable component in this league, the underpriced RB with years left. If Tim Hightower pans out, that is a very solid top 3.

What was costly for Greg was Willie Parker's injuries, Plaxico's stupidity and TJ Houshmandzadeh being on one of the worst organizations in the NFL, and one of the worst organizations in sport. God, I hope that John York (49ers owner) didn't say that he wanted to emulate the Bengals. Tony Morabito would be spinning in his grave....


Peteriot Nation:

Odds to win in 2009: +180
Odds to finish in the money: +120

Likely keepers: Matt Ryan (24/2), Shaun Hill (1/2), Steve Slaton (5/2), Randy Moss (17/1), Wes Welker (2/1), Dallas Clark (2/1)
Reaches: Tarvaris Jackson (11/2), Felix Jones (6/2), Ted Ginn JR (10/2)

Again, Steve Slaton is the cheap RB with years left that guys win with. If you look at the history of this league, and the teams that win, one constant you will almost always see is the undervalued RB that came out of nowhere.

Matt Ryan has had the best rookie year for an NFL QB since Peyton Manning. Michael who, indeed. Shaun Hill is a keeper if he starts, but only if he starts. Wes Welker is the polar opposite of pool idiots who have 15 points on the strength of, literally, one play - among the NFL leaders in catches and yardage but, only 2 touchdowns.

For all the moves he made the move that effectively killed Pete's 2008 season was the trade of Roethlisberger and LenDale White AND Joe Flacco for Frank Gore and Patrick Crayton, who underachieved badly. There are good pieces here but the 2008 season for Pete was a bad case of "what might have been". The good news is that there is something to build on here and Pete has won before in this league so there's no reason to believe that with some wise picks he won't rise again.

4. Anthonyapolis Colts

Odds to win in 2009: +110
Odds to finish in the money: -150

Likely keepers: Chad Pennington (1/1), DeAngelo Williams (13/2), Andre Johnson (24/1), Roddy White (10/1)
Reaches: Peyton Manning (78/2), Peyton Hillis (13/2), Steve Smith (33/3), Sammy Morris (1/2), Cedric Benson (11/2).

Somewhere, Todd is proud.

TONY and Phil are proof that, in these leagues, jointly run teams can win and win consistently. They have their differences to be sure (Phil was not down with trading Shaun Hill) but Phil handles draft, TONY handles trades, and they are both on the same page always. Think of it as being like Shaq and Kobe, or Jerry Jones and Jimmy Johnson, but backwards - that is, they didn't get along in the beginning but now are BFFs. Or at least one of them.

When you win three years in a row, you are obviously doing something right. Although Tony Romo (not TONY) and Tony Gonzalez (also not TONY) are at the end of their deals, there is still plenty of talent here. Chad Pennington is the perfect QB for the Dolphins. Maybe next year he comes back down to earth but he is a perfect fit for that team and a big reason they are where they are. He is proof that it's not the physical prowess that wins, but moxie and smarts, which Chad has in spades.

What makes TONY and Phil's team even more intriguing are the reaches. Cedric Benson has done quite well for the Bengals in a lost cause. Peyton Hillis was very good before he got hurt, outperforming both Felix Jones AND Darren McFadden. And Sammy Morris has been reliable and solid for the Pats when he has been healthy. If even one of these guys pans out in 2009, TONY and Phil could be in uncharted waters in any of these leagues - a four-peat.


Tom's Turkeys:

Odds to win in 2009: +180
Odds to finish in the money: +130

Likely keepers: Jake Delhomme (17/1), Kerry Collins (1/2), Ronnie Brown (18/3).
Reaches: Warrick Dunn (1/2), Darren Sproles (3/2), Chester Taylor (5/2), Baltimore (2/2)

Delhomme and Collins are decent QBs with upside, although Delhomme has more upside than Collins. Ronnie Brown is an excellent value at 18.

Much of Tom's success in 2009 rides on his reaches. Chester Taylor has done well spotting an injury-prone Adrian Peterson. Darren Sproles also is an intriguing prospect, as LDT seems to have suddenly hit the wall with the Chargers.


Anyway, Tom, I think I speak for everyone when I say that we're thinking of you, and we're here if you need us. Hopefully, these silly games that we play will continue to bring you a bit of joy and mirth now and in the months and years ahead.

PGia Panthers:

Odds to win in 2009: +125
Odds to finish in the Money: Even

Likely keepers: Joe Flacco (15/2), Big Ben (35/1), Le'Ron McClain (2/2), LenDale White (25/2), Santana Moss (16/2), Jerricho Cotchery (6/1), Deion Branch (1/2)
Reaches: Grandma Rose Seneca (15/2), Julius Jones (13/2), Anthony Fasano (1/2),

Joe Flacco is clearly Ryan Leaf to Matt Ryan's Peyton Manning - if Leaf had it together and actually lived up to the hype. In fact, if it weren't for Ryan's year, Flacco would be getting a lot more run than he is. Considering that he came from 1-AA Delaware - the Fightin' Blue Hens - his achievement is even more of note. Big Ben also did quite well despite injuries, both to himself and his supporting cast.

White clearly has a role in the Titans offense and is a good value. Of the "second banana" running backs that have begun to emerge as a leaguewide trend, he's one of the best. McGahee is through and McClain is almost certainly the man there. And if it isn't him it'll be Ray Rice. Good to have a guaranteed stud RB.

Also, like the Seahawks, Jones and Branch are better than what they've shown this year and, especially in a weak division, may be poised for a decent year in 09.

Coin Tossers:

Odds to win in '09: +150
Odds to finish in the money: Even

Likely keepers: Pierre Thomas (119/1), Kevin Walter (2/2), John Carlson (2/2), Marshawn Lynch (44/2), Donald Driver (8/3), Leon Washingto (5/2).
Reaches: Matt Cassel (60/2), Deuce McAllister (8/2)

Matt Cassel is Exhibit A as to why the Patriots are the best organization in football. Here is a team that is built around the concept that nobody is irreplacable. Nobody, that is, except one person: Tom Brady. So what happens? Before halftime of the opener, Brady blows his knee out, and see you in '09.

In comes Matt Cassel, he of no starts since high school, and being understudy to two Heisman Trophy winners and a future first ballot Hall of Famer. Despite speculation about the Pats going out and getting Daunte Culpepper or Chris Simms, Belichick stood pat with Cassel. And, just like in 2001, the Patriots kept Cassel on a tight leash to begin, gradually letting him loose, with a crescendo coming in this weeks 47-7 whitewashing of the Cardinals. They may not get in but if they do, do you think ANYONE wants a piece of these Pats during these playoffs?

Would anyone be surprised if these Pats went the distance if they got in? Would it be any less likely than the Giants last year, than the Steelers in '05, who came out of the six hole, who would not have even MADE the postseason before 1989? As Louie DePalma once said, "no, no, and no."

As to next year. Bill Belichick has proven that he doesn't give a shit about perceptions, he is going to play the guys he thinks give him the best chance to win. It is this thinking that caused him to pick Vinny Greenhead over Bernie Kosar in Cleveland. It is this thinking that caused him to stay with Tom Brady after Drew Bledsoe got hurt, and it is this line of thinking that caused him to stay with Matt Cassel, when some people wondered if Cassel had what it took. What if the Pats have a strong run? Is it Cassel that stays? Probably not. But you see me working. I guarantee you this: if Belichick thinks that Matt Cassel gives him the best chance to win, Matt Cassel will be the Patriots' starting QB, public perception be damned.

Given the most likely scenario, that Cassel will find his fortune elsewhere next year: if Cassel goes to Minnesota next year, or Kansas City, or San Francisco, would he be worth 60? Probably not. But you cannot rule it out, and, as with Marc Bulger in 2002, who the hell would have thought we'd be saying that.

As to Craig's team, he has several promising pieces. Pierre Thomas will get plenty of work behind the injury plagued Reggie Bush and Deuce. Kevin Walter is a reliable option behind Andre Johnson, on a team that is just going to get better. And Leon Washington will get his touches with the Jets being Col. Riker to Tom Jones's Captain Picard. No, these are not cornerstones; but you need guys like this to win.

D&B Roadrunners

Odds to win in 2009: +160
Odds to finish in the money: +130

Likely keepers: Phillip Rivers (48/2), Tom Jones (29/2), Bernard Berrian (10/2), Laveranues Coles (9/2).
Reaches: Mewelde Moore (5/2), Tyler Thigpen (32/2), Anthony Gonzalez (10/2), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (15/2), Kevin Smith (30/2)

Congratulations to Dave and Brandon who, after six years, FINALLY have their moment in the sun with a solid team that will finish third at worst, and quite possibly pass Derek and Garf for second. They achieved this success on the backs of their QBs who were as solid as anyones, with Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers both having terrific years, even though their teams were sorry underachievers. As well, the mega trade that Dave and Brandon made with Pete really panned out for both teams - Jackson and Big Ben helped PGar make his run last year, and Jay Cutler helped Dave and Brandon make their run this year.

Although Lawrence Maroney, Joseph Addai and Darren McFadden were bitter dissapointments, Tom Jones had a great year (and a great new album, now available on iTunes), Mewelde Moore gave them a few good weeks, and Bernard Berrian had a good year in Minnesota.

For next year, if they are so inclined, Dave and Brandon will have a lot of money tied up but would have good solid talent. Philip Rivers is a Grade A quarterback and justified the Chargers letting Drew Brees go. Tyler Thigpen, like Matt Cassel, may or may not be keepable; but certainly seems to have some promise.

The reaches here are also intriguing. Provided that they nuke the team and start over, Kevin Smith may do good with the Lions (he's also a pretty good director, as he proved with Clerks and Mallrats.) The Patriots don't have a lot of options at running back, and if BenJarvis Green-Ellis were to emerge as a feature back, would anyone really be surprised? See the comments above re. Matt Cassel. Anthony Gonzalez (not ANTHONY Leonardi) will enter his third year with the Colts and, with Marvin Harrison possibly on his way out, and Reggie Wayne not getting any younger, he may be ready for a bigger role, more touches - and more fantasy points. All in all, an encouraging year for a team that has had far more than its share of shit luck the past five seasons.

99 Yarders:

Odds to win in 2009: +180
Odds to finish in the money: +150

Likely keepers: Aaron Rodgers (8/1), Eli Manning (43/2), Anquan Boldin (25/2), Derrick Mason (3/2)
Reaches: Derek Anderson (22/1), Dominic Rhodes (3/2), Jon Stewart (21/2), Rob "My" Bironas (2/2)

Disclaimer: I don't think Rob Bironas is that special, I just wanted to drop a "My" Bironas. Just so you know.


Fact: Up until about 2 weeks ago, Bob had 4 friends on Facebook. Two of them were me (PGar) and my brother (Daveyo). Now he is up to six, with Big Ben Abitz and Steve St. Germain.

As I told Ben, I look forward to the day when TONY and Derek sign on to Facebook. My brother had a great line, he said that TONY's status line would read "TONY is must....beat....Bob..." He said it, I didn't!

Anyway, if any of you guys decide to take the plunge, I have a beachhead on there, send me a friend request and I'll approve it. (Note to Craig, you should come back, it is off the chain!)


Anyway, Aaron Rodgers had a great statistical season. LDT did well but to those who much is given, much is expected, and while he had an OK year, Bob did not pay 91 dollars for OK numbers. Jon Stewart has a solid supporting role in Carolina but at 21 may be a little rich.

Biggest wild card here is Derek Anderson. The Browns have all but committed themselves to Brady Quinn but I have to think there will be a role for Anderson somewhere in the league. To me he seems as if he would be a good fit in either Detroit or Chicago. Detroit, especially, as they have some nice weapons on offense. When he's not covering the political scene Jon Stewart is also a good Sancho Panza to DeAngelo Williams's Don Quixote, but at $21 is probably a bit rich.

Nippers:

Odds to win in 2009: +130
Odds to finish in the money: -105

Likely keepers: Kyle Orton (7/2), Matt Forte (31/2), Justin Gage (3/2), Eddie Royal (4/3), Hines Ward (7/2)
Reaches: Jerious Norwood (4/2), Mushmouth (2/2), Todd Heap (1/2)

Disclaimer: I don't think Muhsin Muhammad is all that and a bag of CHiPs, I just wanted to say Mushmouth.

A dissapointing year but Bob did nail two of the better rookies this year: Matt Forte and Eddie Royal. Of the coveted rookie backs, who went for the big bucks, Forte was really the only one to fulfill his promise. He's solid for the Bears and a sure keeper. Rookie WRs have almost as hard a time of making an impact as rookie QBs and although he certainly wasn't Randy Moss in 1998 for the Broncos, Royal did have a nice year.

Kyle Orton is very much like Shaun Hill: if he is the starter, he is keepable, if he's not a starter, he's not. Really, Chicago and San Francisco's QB situations are very similar: lightly regarded quarterbacks, who exceeded modest expectations, who are not franchise cornerstones but will provide bang for the buck and reliable points, week after week.

Of the reaches on SRs team, the only one with anything resembling upside is Jerious Norwood, who could be might be a Leon Washington/Lendale White type who manages to sneak 100 points; although his career has largely been a dissapointment so far, at least statwise. Heap is keepable only because he can't be had for any cheaper and he has a chance to have some value.

D.A. Dolphins:

Odds to win in 2009: +155
Odds to finish in the money: +110

Kepers: Kurt Warner (2/1), Adrian Peterson (36/1), Mark Clayton (1/2), Calvin Johnson (13/3), Brandon Marshall (8/1)
Reaches: Ahmad Bradshaw (3/2), Larry Fitzgerald (36/2), Tony Scheffler (not TONY) (2/2)

Disclaimer: I don't think Tony Scheffler is keepable, I just wanted to sneak in another parenthetical (not TONY).
Disclaimer II: I think Larry Fitzgerald is the broadest of broad reaches but I do enjoy mentioning that our 7th grade gym and health teacher at Barry Jr. High, was Larry Fitzgerald. Not the same guy (I'm pretty sure.)

Warner is definitely keepable if he returns as the starter in Arizona. Nice comeback year for him even though he's hit the wall. Adrian Peterson is one of the most dynamic backs in the NFL and could be like LDT in his prime if he stays healthy. Calvin Johnson was the one bright spot to what was a dismal and sorry year for the Lions (insert lame and tired joke about how Chrysler and GM had a worse year than the Lions here.) Imagine how good this guy's gonna be when he has a REAL QB throwing to him!!!

The one reach is Ahmad Bradshaw, who has little fantasy value but if there are injuries you never know. If nothing else he would probably go for at least 3 in the draft next year.

Anyway Derek and my namesake are losing a lot of key guys (Westbrook, Favre) but they know how to win and be competitive and that matters. Still not sure which Archie comic book character Garf is, although I've ruled out Dilton and Pop Tate so far.




So that's it. We are going to do a post-season pool, it will work the same as in years past, I'll launch the site shortly.

Anyway, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Quanzzah or whatever you celebrate. Figure it this way, we made it through what was a clustereff of a year, and we are all here and we all survived it. Though I think everyone is sucking everyone's popsicles WAY too early about the new Administation (as Harvey Keitel said in Pulp Fiction) hopefully some changes will give a psychological boost to everything, if nothing else. Personally I don't things are as dire and dour as everyone says they are - they are not great, but not that bad either, I seem to remember inflation and unemployment were a HELL of a lot higher in the 70s than they are now. Plus there are more people working, and the economy has been expanding for how many months and years. This is what happens in the free market.

I see now it is 11.17pm so to keep my promise (before midnight on Monday) I will go ahead and post this now. I'll be on Facebook sending people virtual donuts and Patriots players if anyone needs me.